The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Revenue Growth Overtook Efficiency as the Top Valuation Driver in Q2 2023
“What you can see through kind of most of 22 last year was that efficiency went to the top. That's how companies were valued. And of course, now look at the very last point on the far right. Q two, 20, 23, it's flipped again and on top revenue growth.”
Pepper: Growth VCs can no longer underwrite to $10B outcomes
“And I think it's going to fundamentally change how people think about entry points because no longer can you assume, you know, ten billion to generate a venture return in most cases.”
Pepper: Venture investing activity will be dramatically higher by late 2023
“I think the public, I think it's a great time to buy a lot of these names in the public markets. That's not investment advice, but given that, I think we're going to be in a much better place next year. And then in terms of our activity levels, I think dramati…”
Pepper: SaaS Multiples Will Settle Higher Than May 2022 Levels Within 24 Months
“I happen to be one of the bulls and I'm not calling the bottom. That's not our job to pick the bottom, but my guess is that we do settle out at multiples higher than today over the next. 24 months. And we get back to that being normal as opposed to normal bein…”
Pepper: 2022-2023 VC vintages will outperform 2020-2021
“Probably the best fun vintages are going to be 20, 22, 23, as opposed to 20, 21.”
Successful SaaS Startups Consistently Hit a Growth Plateau Around $15M ARR
“We looked at all the data of our companies over a decade. Even the successful ones hit this thing that we call the growth plateau. Around fifteen million ARR, you can see in the data, and again, these are the successful companies that made it through. They hit…”
Sales Leaders Need Past Quota Experience of 25x Your Current ARR
“55% of those hires not only were successful, they made it all the way past a hundred million ARR. If you hire somebody who had less than 25 times your current ARR in terms of their quota responsibility, 44% didn't even make it out of the early stage. They didn…”
Predictable Growth and NDR Rank as Top SaaS Valuation Drivers
“We looked at all the publicly traded SaaS companies and did a regression analysis of what are the key drivers of your valuation and your valuation multiple. And this is actually the answer in order. Revenue growth, probably not surprisingly, but not just growt…”
Doug Pepper: Median SaaS Plan Attainment Fell From 99% to 69%
“Q one, the medium was 99% hit their plan. I've never Q two, yeah, 87%, Q three, median, 69%.”
Doug Pepper: Median SaaS Growth Rate Fell From 83% to 48%
“The median growth rate was about 83% last year across a very wide range of companies that we track. This year, that's degrading all the way to 48%.”
Pepper: Only 5% to 10% of Iconiq Portfolio Beat Raised 2022 Targets
“Roughly my guess is less than 10, maybe five have raised their plan for this year and are beating that raise plan.”
Pepper: Most 2021-Funded Companies Should Eventually Grow into Valuations
“I think over time, given their large balance sheets, most of those companies should be able to grow into their valuation over time.”
Pepper: SaaS Valuations Will Fall in 2-4 Quarters as Founders Need Capital
“I think it's going to take two, three, four quarters. For those companies that raised in early or mid 20, 21 to need to come back and there will come a time where they need capital and the pendulum will swing from, you know, purely power on the part of founder…”
Pepper: LPs will allocate less to VC and prioritize re-ups
“Those marks are going to be tough in the next couple of quarters. So yes, I think like all of us, LPs are reassessing the environment, trying to figure out what to do, And my guess is that they'll do what many others are doing, which is retrench a bit. And my …”
Pepper: 2022 valuations will look like great entry points within 3-5 years
“Our bet is that over the long-term three to five plus years, we're going to look back at today and see very good entry points for certain companies.”
Pepper: 50–80% Drops Only Brought SaaS Stocks to Pre-COVID Median Multiples
“We were down 50 to 80%. Right. And many of these names today. But as you know, as well as I do, we're only now at median pre COVID trading multiples. So by no means are stocks cheap today.”
Pepper: VC fund deployment cycles will normalize back to 2-3 years
“In the last two or three fund cycles, we were investing each of those funds in one year. I think we're going to see fund cycles normalize back to a two or three year fund cycle.”
Sales Managers Oversee 5-7 Reps at $20M-$50M ARR, 7-10 Near IPO
“You could see in the 20 to fifty million dollar range, the data that we have is that typically a manager can manage five to seven individual contributors. Of course, as a company gets closer to IPO, they can scale that to seven to 10.”
54% of Tech Companies Hire Their CMO Within Two Years of IPO
“And you can see from the data, 30% are hiring their CMO a year, less than a year from going public. You know, a total of 54% two years to IPO. And then on the dollar side, 46% are hired after a hundred million ARR.”
Pepper: Marketo sold for $1.8B before Vista flipped it for $4.5B
“And we sold Marketo for 1.8 billion. Phenomenally great outcome. And then Vista sells it two years later for 4.5 billion. And we felt like we left a lot of money on the table. It was actually kind of painful despite being a great outcome.”