why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
David Sacks: Startups must cap their Burn Multiple at 2.0 during downturns
“Do not let your burn multiple go above two, because We're going into a tough period. It's more likely that you're gonna miss than exceed, and if you miss, your burn multiple's gonna, like, go off the charts. It's gonna be even worse than you're planning, right…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Craft and Bessemer Allocate Over 80% of SaaS Capital to AI
“We had one with David Sachs, who now has three billion at Kraft. And we had an offline discussion with Byron Dieter, who runs Bessemer's cloud practice. And they both said over 80% of our money in SaaS is going to AI.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Oct 2024
Lemkin: Craft Ventures Puts 80% of New Capital Into AI
“I said, of your 3.5 billion dollars, how much of your new money is going into AI? I think he said 80%.”
Insight
David Sacks: Burn Multiple should trend from 2.0 to zero at IPO
“Your burn multiple, which is just your burn divided by your net new ARR, it should be going down. And obviously, by the time... That's the point, it should be going down, and so, like, if you're a late stage company, you're like a growth stage company, like, y…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
David Sacks: Many 2021-funded startups will fail or restructure by 2025
“There's still, I think, you're still gonna see over the next year or two a lot of companies, you know,
Run out of money and die, or have to take down rounds or, you know, restructure.”
Disclosure
David Sacks: Craft Ventures spends 70% to 80% of time on AI
“In terms of looking for new ideas, I think the team is spending 70 to 80% of their time looking at AI.”
Disclosure
David Sacks: Craft has written only one or two Series A checks
“We've only made, I'd say, a couple of, you know, well, we've made a few seed investments. Seed checks are a lot easier to write right now. I think we've only written one or two, you could call them, like, series A type checks.”
Assertion Supported
Murray: PLG software stocks have outperformed the NASDAQ index since 2012
“On the left you can just see the number of PLG IPOs since 2012. It's been hockey sticking. Similarly the performance of these stocks Relative to NASDAQ index or just general tech stocks, PLG seems to see some outperformance.”
Disclosure
David Sacks: Craft Ventures reaches $3.3B in assets under management
“We're at 3.3 billion.”
Disclosure
David Sacks: Half of Craft Ventures' $3.3B AUM remains undeployed
“Half of that is in new funds that we haven't deployed yet, so.”
Disclosure
Sacks: Craft Ventures Series A startups typically have 10 to 20 employees
“Most of the companies, when we, you know, write a Series A term sheet, they're in the, I'd say, 10 to 20 employee range. And they're looking to sort of roughly double, you know, in size over the next, say, six months.”