Feb 15, 2026 · 41m · saastr
Software Stocks Have Massively Crashed. Here's What Founders Need to Know.
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SaaStr founder Jason Lemkin joins John Coogan and Jordi Hays to analyze the profound structural disruptions facing the software industry, examining why enterprise SaaS valuations have compressed, how autonomous AI agents are dismantling traditional sales teams, and what founders must do to survive an era of rapid AI-driven commoditization.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Jason holds 66.7% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Jason as informed peer 8.1 Guest teaching 1.4 Guest disagreement 1.6 Jason pushing back 4.8
speaking balance: gold is Jason, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 22:26 Guest challenges host over vendor loyalty
Jordi Hays directly presses Lemkin on why he champions Salesforce's Agentforce while simultaneously building custom agents and funding agile competitors.
Hardest push from Jason ▶ 9:43 Host rejects founder reinvigoration thesisJason Lemkin firmly pushes back on John Coogan's thesis that legacy SaaS founders are universally energized by AI, citing private executive feedback indicating deep organizational resistance.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 16:58 Guest articulates the barbell market theoryJordi Hays reframes software market consolidation through a barbell framework comparing niche micro-teams against scale platforms, which Lemkin validates with developer metrics.
Jason holds their own ▶ 20:02 Host exposes harsh private equity M&A realitiesJason Lemkin provides insider deal data to prove that profitable mid-market SaaS companies are failing to secure private equity buyouts despite industry PR narratives.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Jason as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Jason pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Media Business Strategy and Lemkin's Origins | 8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | Lemkin breaks down the unit economics of large-scale tech conferences, citing operating margins, baseline fixed costs, and personal financial losses. He pushes back immediately when Coogan suggests attendee quality and business models naturally align. | |
| In-Person Gatherings Versus Digital Fatigue in the AI Era | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | Lemkin explains how internal agent deployments replaced eight staff members while analyzing the macro friction between the demand for in-person trust and remote work culture. | |
| AI Revenue Re-Acceleration as the Ultimate Litmus Test | 8 | 1 | 2 | 6 | Lemkin dismisses Coogan's romanticized premise that AI has broadly reinvigorated legacy SaaS founders, arguing that real-world evidence shows widespread organizational inertia and lack of revenue re-acceleration. | |
| Vibe Coding, Proliferation of Clones, and Unrealistic VC Milestones | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | Lemkin draws on his direct vibe-coding experience and portfolio metrics to explain how low technical barriers produce clones, while escalating venture benchmarks demand historically unprecedented ARR growth rates. | |
| Bootstrapping Viability and the Barbell Market Structure | 8 | 2 | 2 | 6 | Lemkin challenges Coogan's suggestion that founders can easily opt into bootstrapping, citing Atlassian's history to explain that current rapid iteration cycles crush under-resourced teams. | |
| Micro-Niche Software Boom and Private Equity Realities | 9 | 1 | 2 | 5 | Lemkin contradicts optimistic reports on mid-market SaaS M&A, detailing how private equity firms have halted acquisitions of legacy B2B companies regardless of profitability. | |
| Enterprise AI Turnarounds and Demanding Quantifiable Results | 8 | 1 | 2 | 6 | Lemkin counters speculative optimism around legacy turnarounds like Yahoo, establishing a strict performance benchmark that AI integration is irrelevant without clear top-line revenue lift. | |
| AI Discoverability and Autonomous Agent Procurement | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | Lemkin demystifies Generative Engine Optimization by illustrating how programmatic agent recommendations drive vendor selection over traditional search engine optimization and ad keywords. | |
| Vertical AI Pricing Power and Radical Headcount Reductions | 9 | 1 | 2 | 5 | Lemkin explains why AI pricing power increases by replacing human headcount, citing his investments in vertical platforms and SaaStr's operational downsizing. |
Statements from this episode (23)
Lemkin: Media Founders Should Take Money Off the Table in Boom Times
“If both of you guys could take out, say, four million next year just put it away, might not be the worst idea for a media business, right?”
Lemkin: Large tech conferences cost $10M–$20M just in fixed expenses
“There is a nut for these large events like con lions and money, and even faster. And it's going to cost you 10 to fifteen million dollars, maybe even 20 to turn on the lights.”
Lemkin: SaaStr lost $10 million during COVID conference disruptions
“We lost ten million in COVID. We lost, I lost ten million as the majority shareholder. I lost ten million dollars.”
Lemkin: Conference marginal attendees cost $80 against a $2,500 ticket price
“If you get over the nut, if you think about the nut, and they're high, this is why it's a terrible business, but if you get over it, it's almost pure profit. That extra person you charge a ripoff ticket to for 2500 bucks, that costs you 80 bucks, right?”
Lemkin: Tech Events Have Not Worked for Product Launches Since Steve Jobs
“Well, I don't know that events have worked for a product launch since like Steve jobs. It's all, it's now performative.”
Lemkin: SaaStr Uses 20 AI Agents That Replaced Eight People
“Literally at Sastra we have 20 agents that replaced eight people, ok? We're running it all the time. We're at the bleeding edge.”
Lemkin: Software companies without accelerating growth are not AI companies
“If growth isn't accelerating, you're not an AI company.”
Lemkin: The Trade Desk is the worst-performing software stock over 12 months
“The worst performing software stock of the last 12 months is the Trade Desk, just destroyed by all of this.”
Lemkin: B2B CEOs report 80% of employees still work like it's 2021
“I talked to public company CO's in B to B, my own portfolio, others a lot. Since our agents blew up, everybody thinks we're some sort of, at least for GTM, we're the agent gurus, ok? It's pretty interesting. And everybody says 80% of their team wants to work l…”
Lemkin: Vibe coding cannot build Salesforce, only demo-day prototypes
“You're not going to VibeCode Salesforce for real, but you know what you can VibeCode? Something for demo day that looks really good.”
Lemkin: VCs now expect startups to hit $100M ARR in one year
“Investors are expecting insane levels of growth. Insane levels of growth, right? They want, like, the idea that you can go from one to a hundred in a year is now seen as what you want to invest in.”
Lemkin: Great compounding startups are unfundable today versus two years ago
“There's no great answers to the question that some great businesses will compound to Epic rates, but they're unfundable now, and they would have been fundable two years ago.”
Hays: Media is a barbell favoring tech platforms and solo creators
“Media is now a barbell. You're going to do great if you're a platform, a Spotify, a YouTube Netflix, et cetera. And you're going to do great if you're a personality individual, low, low, you're just like Joe Rogan, you're creating content. But if you're in the…”
Lemkin: Mobile app creation quintupled in late 2025 due to vibe coding
“At the end of last year, just all of a sudden the number of mobile apps like quintupled at the end of last year because of vibe coding, and it's just starting.”
Lemkin: Buyers have zero interest in profitable pre-AI B2B SaaS companies
“These B to B companies, pre AI ones at fifty million, a 100,000,200 1,000,800 million, no one wants to buy them. It doesn't matter that you, hooray, you got profitable. Thank you. That means you're not going bankrupt. You have not solved your existential probl…”
Lemkin: Software platforms must own native agents or lose all value
“You have to own the agents on your platform, or the agents will take away all the value.”
Lemkin: ElevenLabs recently crossed $350 million in revenue
“Great, but 11 labs just crossed three hundred fifty million.”
Lemkin: Digital Jason AI agent has been used 175,000 times
“I even built a digital Jason.
It's been used a 175,000 times.”
Lemkin: AI agents auto-selecting tools fueled rapid growth for Resend and WorkOS
“There are startups that have blown up in the last 12 months, like Resend instead of SendGrid for email, WorkOS and others where the agent just said to use them.”
Lemkin: AI SDR startups like Artisan and Clay start at $100K
“Startups like artisan and qualified and clay, they're expensive, man. They're like a hundred grand to start.”
Lemkin: SaaStr shrank to three employees due to founder hiring burnout
“Well, that's why we shrunk to three. I couldn't do it anymore. You criticize me, like take your shot at me. Right. But I have been doing it a little longer than you guys. I just couldn't take one more person paying them six figures quitting and for a worse job…”