why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Lightspeed pitched Cameo as an uncopyable, bigger Snapchat
“Jeremy Liu, who wrote the first check, walked in with Nicole Quinn, the partner that would join our board from Lightspeed. And you said, Hey, Steven, it's unanimous. You know, the Lightspeed partnership wants to help build Cameo. We're gonna offer you a term s…”
Insight
Spiegel: Visual communication, not disappearing photos, drove early Snapchat adoption
“Is that people weren't really using it to send photos that disappeared. They didn't care that much about that part. What they were really focused on was talking with pictures because it became a much more expressive way to show your friends what you were doing…”
Insight
Early adoption by young women signals an app's pop-culture potential
“One of the early indicators for that is that it's primarily used by young women, because I think young women are culture carriers.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mashrabov: Smaller social platforms cannot build in-house AI video models
“I simply believe that it will be difficult for smaller platforms to make own Gen AI video generation systems, and essentially companies like Pinterest, Snapchat, and many others, they really will have to have some AI-generate capabilities.”
Opinion
Srugo: Snapchat founders lacked a mobile thesis and rode market tailwinds
“Neither Evan nor Reggie nor the other co-founder, the technical co-founder that comes in later, Bobby, they don't have a thesis about mobile. They haven't really thought through strategically what's happening now that the app stores out. Now that these mobile …”
Assertion Partly supported
Mashrabov: US TikTok users average 90 minutes daily vs 47 on Instagram
“TikTok three years forward is the largest social media in the United States, and on average users spend 90 minutes in TikTok, while on Instagram, I think it's 47, and Snapchat around 29.”
Assertion Supported
Liew: Chronological Stories was a complete innovation that became industry best practice
“Now everybody does that. Now it's like obvious. It's the new best practice. It was a complete innovation at that time.”
Insight
Liew: Geographic hotspots prove genuine word-of-mouth virality over manufactured growth
“Because all this growth was happening through genuine word of mouth, these geographic hotspots, Were, like, evidence that this is real, not manufactured virality, not invitation driven virality, the virality driven by people, like, sharing it with the people t…”
Insight
Liew: Disappearing messages reduce posting anxiety caused by persistent social media
“A lot of social media creates this performance anxiety, which means that you don't post. And so like you get this sort of more of a social media perspective with a small number of posters, large number of consumers. And he talked about how the, you know, the d…”
Assertion Supported
Srugo: Reggie Brown, not Evan Spiegel, conceived the idea for Snapchat
“It's not even Evan, by the way, Evan Spiegel, he's the CEO. He's one of the founders of Snapchat. He didn't have the idea. It was his like frat bro. It was Reggie Brown.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Snapchat pitched Lightspeed with 50% DAU/MAU, 50% D30 retention, 50% MoM growth
“What I saw was 50% daily active user to monthly active user. Ratio. I saw 50% D-thirty retention. And I saw 50% month-on-month growth on a statistically significant number of users. I can't remember exactly what it was. It was 10 or 20,000 DAUs. And that had b…”
Assertion Supported
Snapchat bypassed iOS lens animation to load faster than iPhone camera
“They had the software to be able to get rid of that animation so that loading up Snapchat's camera was faster than loading up the iPhone camera.”
Assertion Contradicted
Liew: Early Snapchat Had No Digital Invites and Required Manual Username Sharing
“In the beginning, the only way you could be added is for someone to give you their username.”
Assertion Supported
Srugo: Snapchat grew from 127 to 100k users in nine months
“In August, he has a 127 users. By December of that year, he has 2000 users. January, 20,000 users. And by April of 2012, he's up to a hundred”
Assertion Supported
Snapchat had only 127 users five months after launch
“They do at some point end up launching a mobile app, but even still by August, September, we're talking like five months in, you know, five, six months in after the original idea happens, they have only a 127 users.”
Assertion Supported
Srugo: Sequoia and Chris Sacca passed on Snapchat's initial fundraising
“And so Evan starts to think about fundraising and he talks to Sequoia. He goes after Chris Saka. He meets many different VCs, all of them pass. Some of them won't even like meet with him.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Drop Gained 25,000 App Downloads in One Weekend Via Snapchat Influencer
“Literally over a weekend, we get like 25,000, you know, downloads from one influencer at like a dollar CPI.”
Assertion Supported
Srugo: Facebook Poke clone ended up generating free publicity for Snapchat
“Facebook launches this copycat app called Poke, and it quickly, I mean, they have Billion users at this point. So it quickly goes to the top of the charts and it's a bit of a existential moment for Snapchat, but it turns out all that that did was actually make…”