The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 35 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prince: Cloudflare will soon publicly expose misbehaving AI scraping companies
“So, you know, watch our blog, and I have a feeling that some prominent AI companies that are misbehaving are Can get called out pretty soon.”
Dell: AI workloads will concentrate heavily in Texas and the Gulf
“I think the highly energy intense workloads will converge around the low cost electricity places. You'll see a lot of that go to the Gulf. You'll see a lot of that go to Texas. And you're seeing that now, right, with Stargate and Abilene and all the big produc…”
Dohmke: Copilot will resolve GitHub issues via draft PRs in 2025
“But we think, you know in 20, 25, we get into a place where you can assign a GitHub issue, a well-defined GitHub issue to a co-pilot and then it starts creating a draft pull request and it outlines the plan and then it works through its plan and you can, simil…”
Gil: Foundation model market will partially consolidate in 2025
“First, the foundation model market should at least partially consolidate. And it may be in the sort of ancillary areas. So that's image gen, video, voice, you know, a few other areas like that. Maybe some secondary LLMs or foundation models will also consolida…”
Elad Gil predicts future generations will inevitably date AI bots
“You know, there's a CEO of a well-known AI company who actually, this is like his dinner question where he'll just ask people around the table, what proportion do you think that your kids will at least at one point in their life date an AI bot or have them as …”
Ma: RAG Will Remain Much Cheaper Than Long-Context Windows
“My prediction is that reg will be much cheaper than long contacts going forward.”
Gil: VC Funding Will Shift from LLMs to Specialized Domain Models
“I think on the foundation model side, from a venture capital or angel investor perspective I think we're going to see fewer new language models But we should see models in a lot of other areas and, you know, we have new things happening in music. We talked a l…”
Masad: Useful AI coding agents are 6 to 18 months away
“My feeling is this is within reach, even in the current capabilities. Like if you hold constant the current capabilities, this is when reach within reaching the order of, you know, six to 18 months.”
Sal Khan predicts most teachers will use AI for grading by 2024
“五年後にはほとんどの教師が生成案を使って授業計画、採点、進行状況報告、評価基準作成を行うのは安全だと思います。小さい、すでに来年の後半にそれが実現する可能性があります。”
ChatGPT-Level AI Models Will Run Locally on Smartphones by 2028
“You will see ChatGPT level models running on the edge on smartphones in five years, which will be crazy.”
Guo: An open-source model matching GPT-3.5 will arrive within a year
“Like if I were a betting woman and I am, I bet there's a three, five level model in the open source ecosystem within a year.”
Zaharia: Core LLM technology is commoditizing rapidly and becoming much cheaper
“The thing I can say for sure, especially, and Dolly and like other, you know, results like this really highlighted is it does seem that the core tech is getting commoditized very quickly. So just, if you just want to run, you know, something like today's chat …”
Ramaswamy Predicts Major Platforms Will Allow Indexing but Block LLM Scrapers
“I think what is going to happen is that some of the larger content creators, you know, I would put people like Reddit and Quora. These are some of the forward thinking ones very much in that bucket. They're going to say, we want to be part of search, but we do…”
Wickramasekara: GLP-1s will probably be the best-selling drugs of all time
“And then all of a sudden, like we have this category defining medicine that's going to go on to probably be the best selling drug of all, all time.”
Guo: Real-time generative audio and video apps will emerge within months
“I think we're going to see really, really cool experiences on the image video audio side, because as you say, if the models get smaller and they get better they also get, you know, and there's different architectures, like what Cartesia is working on, you're g…”
Vinyals: Context Windows Will Grow 10x for Commodity and SOTA AI in 1-2 Years
“I expect, I mean, order of one, two years, you might see, wow, we went another order of magnitude from both state of the art and, of course, what's considered a commodity. So I'm pretty certain about this.”
Sarah Guo predicts Apple will create interfaces for running local AI models
“And so I think there's a lot of developer demand, and I think it, like, foreshadows we should see Apple creating interfaces for running models locally as part of their ecosystem. That's my general prediction.”
Khan: Students will video conference with AI tutors within five years
“And then I think in three to five years, yeah, you're going to be able to video conference with your tutor, which then makes it like a real thing that you can have a long journey with.”
Scott: OpenAI will release GPT-4 Vision to wide distribution soon
“OpenAI doesn't have GPTV and wide distribution, but, like, it'll get to wide distribution at some point in the not too distant future, and so, like, you'll have these, like, very powerful multimodal models”
Generative Image Models Will Soon Achieve 25 Frames Per Second
“With the additional breakthroughs that are coming through, it'll be 25 frame images a second. That's a hundred times speed up over a hundred times just from getting it out there and people interested in doing that.”
Zaharia: ChatGPT-level AI models will soon run locally on smartphones
“At least to get something with today's capabilities, I think it'll be you know, it'll be very affordable and you might just be able to run it locally on, you know, your phone or something.”
Autonomous tax-filing AI agents are achievable within the next few years
“You want to make a thing where you say, hey, computer, file my taxes, and it does the right thing. You know, I think we can get there. That's certainly in the next few years you know.”
Huang: Language-driven robotic foundation models will be discovered
“I have every confidence that a robotic foundation model will be discovered, and that, that through, through expressing yourself using human language you could cause a mechatronic system of almost different types of limbs and, you know, agility to be able to fi…”
Gil: Foundation Models Will Achieve Physics and Math Breakthroughs
“I think you know, a third area is the next set of foundation models are going to come, and by that I don't mean the Neolabs and the Next Gen LLM, which of course will happen, but I mean, physics, materials, science progress by models, math progress. And I thin…”
Guo: Alternative AI Architectures Like SSMs Will Be Tested
“And like, there's enough capital out there to test them, be they like diffusion or SSMs or whatever. And that's going to happen this next year.”
Laskin: AI models will beat humans at competitive coding within a year
“Code forces and other competitive coding environments. The models are almost best in the world, and within the year will probably be just the best in the world.”
Most enterprises will eventually stop building their own AI models
“Most companies are not going to build their own models over time. They might tweak them a little bit, but I think a lot of companies are going to build, are going to use the applications that use the software and the models underneath.”
Elad Gil predicts AI context windows will exceed 10 million tokens soon
“And then it seems lucky that a lot of people will end up in the ten million plus range in the next a year or two or, you know, some reasonable timeframe ahead.”
Guo: 2024 will end with a handful of GPT-4-level models
“I think it's very it's very likely at this point that you end this year with a handful of GPT-IV level models, and that some of those are open source, right?”
Albrecht: Narrow AI agents for email triage will work by late 2024
“Yeah, I think a year from now we're going to start to see some of these use cases actually work that today you could you can write these like we have the capabilities you can make some kind of agent to triage your email or to do scheduling or many of these wor…”
Polosukhin: Platforms will adopt SSL-style cryptographic locks for content verification
“I think one of the imported pieces will be kind of a green lock, similar to SSL transition on the content, right? Like as you go to YouTube, as you go to you know, New York times, you actually will see that like, Hey, this content been signed by this party and…”
Polosukhin: Market full of Transformer-optimized accelerators will launch by 2024
“And so like, we're going to have a, you know, a market full of hardware accelerators, which are still optimized for transformers, or at least like similar structured architectures hitting the market like this year and next year.”
Uszkoreit: Global RNA manufacturing will reach 6-8B doses within two years
“But right now, if you look at RNA, manufacturing and distribution infrastructure, we're going to have six to eight billion doses two years from now, manufacturable and distributable across the globe.”
Singhal: Epic will likely partner with foundation models for clinical documentation
“I think that is also going to be something where players like Epic are going to be able to partner with existing models and I think potentially deliver real value there.”
Koller: Early Alzheimer's drug approvals will increase available brain MRI data
“I think there will be even more now with the approval of some of the earliest Alzheimer's drugs, because it's going to be part of the process by which people are either selected to receive the drug or not, depending on whether their brain MRI shows certain cer…”