The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 957 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prince: Prominent AI companies use state-hacker tactics to bypass scraping blocks
“In fact, some really prominent companies That do some very, very, very shady things where they basically say, absolutely, we follow the rules of the road, but when push comes to serve, if it turns out they're blocked, then all of a sudden they're doing a bunch…”
Stability AI Has More Compute Available Than Microsoft or Google
“The reality is we have more compute available to us than Microsoft or Google.”
Overnight AI intelligence explosion unlikely due to test-time compute bottlenecks
“And I don't think we're headed to that world largely because of the fact that the models rely so much on large scale test time compute. In order to achieve their greatest intelligence. If you, if it requires so much test time compute to unlock the full capabil…”
Zuckerberg: Curing all disease by end of century is too conservative
“But still, I mean, people thought that by the end of the century was a stretch. Now I think it's, like too conservative.”
Patel: Anthropic has surpassed OpenAI in API revenue
“Anthropic has eclipsed OpenAI and API revenue, and their API revenue is primarily not thinking. It's clawed for, but it's not in the thinking mode.”
Chen: Researchers Degrade AI Factuality Just to Boost LMSYS Rankings
“A lot of researchers, they'll tell us that their VPs make them focus on increasing their rank on LMSYS. And so I've had researchers explicitly tell me that they're okay with making their models worse. Add factuality works at following instructions as long as i…”
Armstrong: The agentic economy will surpass the human economy
“It kind of stands to reason that the agentic economy will be bigger than the human economy at some point in the not too distant future as well.”
Armstrong predicts having children without embryo editing will eventually be considered abnormal
“I think it'll be more normal over time. And at some point it'll be abnormal To have children without doing this kind of screening and editing, because it'd be like, well, this is so risky.”
Gil: California is discussing an exit tax on departing residents by 2028
“And my sense is in 28, there's increasing talk about also trying to add a exit tax in California. So if you actually try and leave, they'll, they'll try and take a big chunk as sort of a penalty for that.”
Nadella: Data center buildout will ultimately lower energy prices long-term
“In fact, if anything, it's bringing down prices because long-term there's going to be a better grid. There is going to be more energy.”
Allaire: Double-Digit GDP Growth in the 2030s Is Achievable in Many Regions
“It does feel like we have the potential for double-digit GDP numbers in the twenty-thirties. Like, that's, that seems not unrealistic to me. Not that that's going to be uniform all around the world, but certainly in large, large parts of the world, that seems …”
Scaringe: Automakers failing at neural net autonomy will shrink to zero
“It's the companies that do this well will exist. The companies that don't do this well, like, I feel really strong on this. They will not exist. They will shrink to nothing. They'll asymptotically approach, you know, zero.”
Huang: Natural gas is probably the only viable power solution this decade
“We're going to need nuclear. Wind is not going to be enough. Solar is not going to be enough. Let's just all acknowledge that we'll take it. We'll take everything we can. But the fact that matters, I think for the next decade, natural gas, you know, is probabl…”
Huang: Chinese military is unlikely to use American tech
“And so that American technology, although general purpose it is unlikely to be used by their military because their military is too smart, just as our military is too smart to use their technology.”
Johnson: 2026 Will Be the Year YOLO Dies
“Ok, my prediction for twenty-twenty-six is it will be the year that YOLO dies. We will begin transforming ourselves from a you only live once to don't die.”
Hendrycks: U.S. and China may launch preemptive cyberattacks on data centers
“I think that later on, it becomes so destabilizing that China just says, we're going to do something preemptive, like do a cyber attack on your data center. And the U.S. Might do that to China.”
Nikesh Arora: Incumbents will squeeze AI security startups out of existence
“The current startups you mentioned like startups that are trying to do what AI wrappers are trying to do on LLMs. And over time we're going to get better and better where we're going to squeeze their capability over time that you wouldn't need them.”
Arora predicts 80% to 90% of customer support eliminated in 2-5 years
“I think in concept from a north star perspective, we should be able to take 80, 90% of customer support out in the next two to five years across the landscape.”
Liemandt: Private school A-students test up to three grades behind
“Your student academically
On our standard, on standardized tests that we use are somewhere between one grade level ahead.
If they had a straight A transcript transferring in to us, one level, one grade level ahead to three grade levels behind.
And if they're a…”
Liemandt: Mastering a grade-level subject takes 20 to 30 hours
“The average grade level subject combo, so fourth grade math, takes between 20 and 30 hours
To master.
That's it.”
Liemandt: 90% of Students Given ChatGPT in School Will Use It to Cheat
“If you give kids ChatGPT in school and academics, 90% will use it for cheating.”
Liemandt: A $500 student incentive program can fix US test scores
“For 400 dollars, maybe 500 dollars of incentive. Remember average education, right? We spend lots of, we spend up to 20 grand a kid. 500 bucks. We can totally fix and change the trajectory and all these bad test scores and all of that by making sure we're moti…”
Kushner: Trump and Witkoff Will Successfully Resolve the Gaza Conflict
“We need to get the Gaza issue resolved, and I know President Trump and Steve Wyckoff are working incredibly hard on that, and I do believe that they will be successful, and then big progress will be made soon thereafter.”
Nadler: OpenEvidence is used daily by 40% of US doctors
“We're used by 40% of doctors in the United States daily on average. It's about 20 times as much usage as the next thing that could be described as a clinical decision support platform.”
Mann: Competitors ran 'code reds' to match Claude in coding and failed
“And I know that other companies have had like code reds for trying to catch up in coding capabilities for quite a while and have not been able to do it.”
Hendrycks: Extreme AI export controls make a Taiwan invasion more likely
“If you turn the pain dial all the way up for China in export controls and if AI chips are the currency of economic power in the future, then this increases the probability that they want to invade Taiwan.”
Hendrycks: China will steal model weights even if chip controls succeed
“Even so, I still think if you really tighten the export controls, you made it so that China can't get any of those chips at all, and this is your, one of your biggest priorities, they're just going to steal the weights anyway.”
Hsu: High-throughput token generation will dominate biology over mechanistic research
“The vast majority of, you know, mechanistic data that's been generated to date is really made to ask very specific, very well scoped questions and just, you know, way more tokens per experiment is, you know, just, it's just going to be the way to do it.”
Vogt: Claims That Mostly Autonomous Systems Cannot Reach Full Autonomy Are Wrong
“That statement is, is almost certainly wrong given a long enough time span.”
Wang: The path to AGI resembles curing cancer, not a vaccine
“My biggest belief here is that the path to AGI is is one that looks a lot more like curing cancer than developing a vaccine. And what I mean by that is I think that the path to build AGI is going to be in, in, you know, you're going to have to solve a bunch of…”
Wang: No strong evidence that video creates useful AI world models
“I don't think there's strong scientific evidence of that yet. Maybe there will be eventually.”
Ejeckam: AI data center demand will crash the grid without novel cooling
“We believe that a consciousness that if a material science and more specifically a physics or chemistry approach to solving the heat problem is not used today, that the needs of AI data centers around the world is based on projections today will crash the grid…”
Huang: In 2-3 years, every science breakthrough will use generative AI
“If we give ourselves another couple, two, three years, the world's going to change. There's not going to be one paper There's not going to be one breakthrough in science, one breakthrough in engineering where generative AI isn't at the foundation of it. I'm fa…”
Mansour: Kalshi predicts daily weather better than most stations
“Like we can predict daily weather more accurately than most weather stations.”
Steinberger: It will eventually be responsible to replace human CEOs with AI
“There'll be some CEO system, and then, like, the responsible decision will be to, you know, like, have that thing be the CEO, and then, so that will happen at some point.”
Franceschi: Human-level AI will eliminate the need for traditional ERP systems
“And I think as you bring a lot of that data with, you know, assuming AI will get there and essentially operate with human level performance, you won't need anymore this concept of an ERP, and then you effectively have sort of this real time layer into what's h…”
Knoop: Purely scaling language models will not achieve AGI
“Scaling language models purely will not get there.”
Alexandr Wang: Achieving AGI will take multiple decades of solving individual problems.
“My biggest belief here is that the path to AGI is is one that looks a lot more like curing cancer than developing a vaccine. And what I mean by that is I think that the path to build AGI is going to be in, in, you know, you're going to have to solve a bunch of…”
Peebles: Sora will evolve into interactive world simulators with autonomous humans
“And so looking forward, as we continue to scale up models like Sora, we think we're going to be able to build these, like, world simulators, where essentially, you know, anybody can interact with them. I, as a human, can have my own simulator running, and I ca…”
Peebles: Video models will eventually surpass humans as physical world models
“We're optimistic that Sora will, you know, supersede that kind of capability and will, you know, in the long run enable it to be More intelligent one day than humans as world models.”
Mensch: AI bioweapon risk narrative relies on unscientific circular citations
“No scientific studies in proper form was published, but then policy papers started to cite Non-scientific papers arguing that these were scientific evidences that the bioweapon narrative was actually true. And then policy papers started to cite the other polic…”
Mensch: Zero evidence AI development is headed toward a singularity
“If we can make a model which is growingly intelligent, then maybe you're at a singularity level. There's no evidence whatsoever that we are on the way of doing that, of making that happen.”
Polosukhin: AI agent CEOs will run organizations and replace middle management
“I really think one of the most interesting cases is organizations that are run completely by AI, right? Where quote unquote CEO role is taken by AI agent. Who's tasked by, you know, by community or board of directors or whatever is oversight governance is to, …”
Scott and Altman suspect the next trillion-dollar company is founded in 2023
“You know, one of the things that Sam Altman and I have talked about a lot is like, I suspect that this year, like the next trillion dollar company gets founded.”
Drone delivery competitors have spent billions without serving a single customer
“There are other companies in, you know, the drone delivery industry that I think have taken more of a moonshot approach and they've spent billions of dollars and have not served a single customer yet.”
Emerging Market AI Systems Will Outperform the West Within Five Years
“I am certain that system will outperform anything in the West within five years.”
Small Hive Architecture AI Models Will Massively Outperform Large Monolithic Models
“I think that small models will outperform large models massively, like I said, the Hive model aspect”
Gil: AI poses no existential threat to humanity within ten years
“So you need physical form for the AI in order for it to truly be an existential threat. And that's why if I were to focus on an area, it'd probably be robotics or something like that, because that's where you suddenly give physical form to something. And if yo…”