The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 83 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 83 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Adcock: The biggest company in 10-15 years will make AI humanoids
“So here at figure what's so, so at a high level, the biggest company, the next 1015 years in the world will be human, like AI powered humanoids. That like, that's for sure going to happen.”
Currier: Unlimited AI processing will run on phone CPUs within four years
“AI is going to be like water. You're going to get free unlimited AI processing on your CPU. On your phone within three to four years. There's no doubt it's going to free”
Pompliano: Bitcoin will protect corporate purchasing power better than cash over 10-20 years
“I think it is riskier for a company to sit with five hundred million dollars in US dollar cash on their balance sheet than five hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin. And the reason being that or maybe the one clarifier is if you have a long-term oriented p…”
Shkreli: In the future, humans will marry AI and AI will vote
“You know, probably some of the craziest ones I've made, including include things like they'll, they'll be kind of interspecies marriage between AI and humans. There'll be AI fundamental rights for voting and things like that. That'll kind of reshape society. S…”
Rose predicts generative AI will make Fiverr completely non-existent
“Whether it be creative writing or I believe Fiverr as a company, it will just be non-existent. It's going to destroy the low end of the creative market initially and then work its way up the chain.”
Luckey: The odds of a tactical nuclear weapon being used are high
“And so for that reason, I think this is a little contrarian and not everyone agrees, but I think that the odds of a tactical nuclear weapon are very high. It will not be used on the United States. It will not be used on a NATO ally. It'll probably be a tactica…”
Holiday: Shopify will become the biggest company in the world
“This is why I think Shopify is gonna be, like, the biggest company in the world, because they, like, let people do that.”
Shaan Puri: Clubhouse will ultimately fail despite its massive hype
“I wrote a thread about Clubhouse, and the thread starts basically saying, you know, everybody seems to think that Clubhouse is the next big thing, and I think it's gonna fail, and here's how I think it's gonna go down.”
Liemandt: In 20 years, 90% of parents will still use physical schools
“In 20 years, parents are going to drop their kids off at a building. 90% of parents, you have homeschool little stuff, but it's a niche. Nine percent of parents are going to drop their kids off at a building. And in that building are other kids and adults”
Sam Parr: OpenAI will be the biggest company on Earth within five years
“Because how is this company not going to take over the world and be the biggest company on earth?”
Puri: Elon Musk will merge xAI into Tesla
“And then I also think, by the way, he's gonna end up merging XAI with Tesla. Like, he's gonna put it all together.”
Mack: The first self-made teenage billionaire will emerge by 2030
“There will be, thanks to AI and the teaching collapse, I think, I've always said for a while, and I think AI's now accelerated this, is that you'll see the first teenage, first self-made teenage billionaire by the end, by 2030.
And I think that, that makes me …”
Puri: The next major social network will feature AI-generated content
“Every decade or so, there's a new big hit social product, Facebook, then Instagram, Snapchat, now TikTok. It's time we are due for a new one. And the Twist will be that the content is somehow generated with AI.”
ZURU founder is building an automated house-building factory larger than Tesla's
“He now is building the largest factory in the world, bigger than the Tesla factory, bigger than all that, where robots are going to build houses. Autonomously.”
Wilkinson: Indistinguishable 4K Video AI Coworkers on Zoom Within 24-36 Months
“I think that within 24 to 36 months, these will be four K video people that are indistinguishable, indistinguishable from a human that you'll talk to on zoom.”
Puri: AI software creation will expand the total software market
“And so I think the overall market for software gets bigger because you can create way more stuff. So, so that's the other counterpoint to like software being bad.”
Means: US healthcare costs will hit 40% of GDP in 20 years
“Like, it's gonna be 40% of GDP healthcare costs in the next 20 years.”
Shaan Puri predicts Andrew Wilkinson's creator joint ventures will yield $300M+.
“I would bet that he's going to make hundreds of millions off of these plays. If you add up the, you know, three to five that he's going to do in this category, I would bet that that's a three to three, like a three hundred million dollar prize.”
Puri predicts MrBeast will sell Feastables at a $6 billion valuation
“I would bet that he's going to sell that chocolate brand for Six billion dollars. That's my guess. I think that's what's gonna, I think if we fast forward the news three years from now you know, Mr. B sells the majority stake or in the chocolate business for a…”
Puri predicts Prime Hydration will eventually become a $20 billion brand
“And so that brand, Prime, is gonna be, my guess, is that that, that ends up being like a twenty billion dollar brand.”
Pompliano: Kim Kardashian will become US President one day
“I think she's going to be president of the United States one day.”
Meta will replace Zoom as the largest work platform in 10-15 years
“In 10 to 15 years, Facebook is gonna be, Facebook, like, Meta is gonna own the largest work platform, so I think that they're gonna be the Zoom, the whatever, because this experience where it looks like you could feel like you're in the same room as a person, …”
Puri: Hampton will generate $100M+ revenue and reach up to $1B valuation
“I will predict and guarantee really that this is going to be a greater than a hundred million dollar a year revenue business, which means it's going to be worth something like low end, 304 hundred million, high end billion dollars.”
Rose: AI will write 90% of a New York Times bestseller by 2027
“I have no doubt in the next five years we'll see a New York Times bestseller that was 90% written by AI.”
Shaan Puri predicts Miss Excel will hit $100 million annual sales
“I think she's gonna get to my bold prediction. She's gonna get to a hundred million dollars in sales... A year.”
Shaan Puri: Successful decentralized social network will be a multi-trillion-dollar project
“And I think it's gonna be a huge project. I think it is gonna be a multi-trillion dollar project Whenever it works.”
Parr: Eight Sleep will end up worth less than capital raised
“I think that for eight sleep, I, and I think that that is a good valuation for Casper. I'm on board with that. Because it's really hard to do. I think that that is what's going to happen to Eight Sleep.”
Balaji: Crypto and ENS names will be third top communication channel in 5-10 years
“I do think that within five to 10 years, in addition to email and text message, your ENS name will become probably the, ENS name, or let's say crypto name, will become the third most popular communication channel.”
BitClout pre-allocated $55,000 to Shaan Puri's unclaimed profile
“And so when I went to the website without ever having used the damn thing, my account had 55,000 dollars sitting in it.”
Saylor: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin will generate more value than software operations over 20 years
“The investment income for sure.”
Saylor: Money supply will expand 15% annually through 2029
“I think that 15% is, 15% for the next eight years is reasonable.”
Parr predicts presentation startup Pitch.com will fail
“Pitch.com. I changed my opinion. They're going to fail. I went to their about page and they have nine employees and they're all founders.”
Liemandt: Alpha will launch a free-to-learn educational game this year
“We have some of the world's best video game developers, right? Building and they're spending two years building a video game on this, these concepts. And it will be free to learn, you know, think free to play free to learn for five hundred million kids and it'…”
Alpha high schooler will publish as lead researcher in Nature journal
“We have a student who's going to be published in nature. She will be the first school student as a lead researcher published in nature.”
Weaver: Apex Scaled to $3B Revenue and $500M Earnings in Six Years
“Three billion of revenue, five hundred million of earnings. And we, I think importantly that, that happened without us putting in any additional money.”
Coogan: SemiAnalysis Is Launching an Investment Fund and Credit Ratings
“They're also launching a fund allegedly according to the information to invest in both semiconductor stocks and startups, and they're already doing angel investing. And then also they're going to do credit ratings.”
Puri: William Hockey self-funded banking platform Column to $200M in revenue
“He actually bought a bank for, I think, sixty million dollars of his own money, and then he started this and he basically uses it as a the underlying bank under Mercury, under Ramp, under Brex, under all these companies, and so he and I think they're doing, th…”
Parr: Young adults will trust AI over doctors within five years
“I bet that the 18 year old today in five years, they're going to go to the doctor. And when they go to the doctor, they're going to tell their doctor, this is the illness that I have. And I think it's this because what you and I would have said five years ago,…”
Puri: NBA will add two expansion teams at $6B each
“The number of teams in the NBA is the same. They're about to launch, they're about to open up two new franchises, and each one of those will get six billion. And then that revenue goes to the other owners”
Shaan Puri: Sam Bankman-Fried will not serve his full 25-year prison sentence
“Sentenced to 25 years, but I do think there was like, there was, I think he's sentenced to 25 years, but I don't think he's gonna serve that whole time.”
Van Trump: Alternative meat will continue to gain market share
“I think there will be a segment of the space that continues to grow. And I think you're going to see it continue to gain market share.”
Parr: Craig Fuller predicts Firecrown will hit $1B revenue by 2030
“And it's his prediction by 2030, this side business that he started, he says, I think we can get to a billion dollars in revenue with 30% profit margins.”
Espiritu: Epic Gardening surpassing $100M in revenue is a foregone conclusion
“I mean, I think it's like a foregone conclusion to get above a hundred million because we have, we've made a couple acquisitions. We made two small ones and one large one. And even just sort of growing those, I think has a shot at getting us past a hundred. I …”
Gary Vee: Prime founders won't wait for a $20B valuation
“Just being in M&A at CPG levels, my intuition is that they won't be patient enough to get to that big of a number, right?”
Haque: Next crypto cycle will see 1-3 casino tokens in top 20
“We all agree that in this like next cycle, whenever it is, could be five years down the line, who knows, but in the next cycle for crypto we believe that there will be one, two or three casinos in the top 20 of all the coins, and that's billions of dollars of …”
Puri predicts social networks will eventually be user-owned via crypto tokens
“I think I would bet that in the long horizon, let's call it 20 years These networks will be built in with, these networks will do this. They will have a currency for the users on the network. And so the users will, the users who contribute to the network will …”