The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,409 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 14 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Shaan Puri compounds millions in retail shopping center investments at 44% annually
“I'm basically compounding like 44% a year. And I get the tax benefits of real estate, and it's passive, and I don't like, and it's like retail, which everyone thinks is dead, there's, I think, less than four percent vacancy rates, like nationally.”
DeepMind is the reason OpenAI and ChatGPT exist
“DeepMind got bought by Google, and DeepMind is basically Google's AI play, and the DeepMind team, which was basically a research team that was building AI, is the reason that OpenAI exists. It is the reason that ChatGPT exists. It is the reason Elon is interes…”
Horowitz: Facebook Executives Attempted a Coup in 2007 to Force Yahoo Sale
“The Facebook traffic had flattened and
The current, the executive staff that he had at the time was trying to run a coup to force him to sell to Yahoo. So they were leaking all this stuff to Valleyrag at the time and Valleyrag was, you know, calling for Zuck t…”
Founders are pitching Trump administration connections as a core competitive advantage
“In the past, I'd never seen anybody pitch, like, a core part of their pitch as being, I'm close to administration. I've heard so many pitches about that now, which is kind of sad, honestly, but it is what it is.”
Brian Armstrong manipulated Polymarket odds during a Coinbase earnings call
“His team passed him a note and he goes, Oh, before we hang up here, I just would like to say web three crypto blockchain, Bitcoin, Ethereum. Thank you very much. And he just basically, he's like you know, just for all the prediction markets out there, you know…”
Puri: Alex Hormozi made $100M in one weekend from book launch
“His last book launch, he just did it about a month ago. His last book launch sold three million copies. And with all the add on courses he added to it, he made a hundred million dollars in a single weekend, a hundred million dollars as one guy.”
Braziel: SBF gave FTX employees guaranteed 10-year million-dollar salary contracts
“I mean, Sam was giving out 10 year contracts to people, guaranteed 10 year pay contracts, you know, like million dollar contracts to like salary employees, a little bit like the, you know, like AI, you know, meta thing.”
Parr: Surge AI did $1B in revenue with zero outside capital
“So this company is only five years old. And it's it was leaked that they did one billion dollars in revenue in the last 12 months. And this guy, Edwin Chen, he's only 37 years old, and he owns 100% of the company. They have not taken any outside funding.”
Ury: US men are more religious than women for the first time
“For the first time in history, men in the U.S. Are more religious. They're more likely to go to church than women, and we're just seeing that men and women are really being polarized.”
Ury: Arranged marriages become happier than love marriages after five years
“So when you compare love marriages versus arranged marriages, love marriages usually start off happier, but around the five year mark, arranged marriages are happier.”
Nagpal: Goldman Sachs wealth management returned 6% versus 13% S&P 500
“The best part of my portfolio that they did was simply indexing the S&P. The S&P has returned about 13% in that time. They did a lot of other stupid shit that averaged it down to six percent.”
Nagpal: Peter Thiel grew Roth IRA from PayPal shares to $5B
“He put his PayPal founder shares in a Roth IRA. Sold those for about twenty seven million dollars, then used this as a supercharged investment account to where it is today, where he has five billion dollars in his Roth.”
Mah: Jet buyers can write off $12M jet with $3M down
“Last year it was 60% upfront, but now with the new administration, it looks like accelerated depreciation is back. So if you bought a twelve million dollar airplane, financed it, you can write off the whole twelve million dollars off your tax bill, even though…”
Senra: James Dyson rejected an acquisition offer, calling Dyson a family heirloom
“They're like, would you be interested in selling your company? The response was, fuck you, this is a family heirloom.”
Currier: 85% to 90% of all tech returns originate from the Bay Area
“Why is it that sort of 85, 90% of all returns in tech have come from the Bay Area? It's because the mindsets here are slightly different from New York and London and LA and other things.”
Currier: Consumer software window closed in 2014, producing only ten unicorns
“Between 94 and 2013, it was a fantastic time to start companies in the consumer software space and invest in them from seed or series A. In 2014, the window just closed. You can look at the number of unicorns created in two th from 2014 to today, and it's real…”
O'Brien: Foreign actors cut about 11 subsea cables in the past year
“I think in the last year about 11 cables have been cut by foreign actors”
O'Brien: Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg are using TRT to get jacked
“Look at Bezos and Zuckerberg. They're getting jacked. Like they're doing TRT.”
James Altucher publicly claimed his premium newsletter generates $120M in annual revenue
“He said he made a hundred, he said it on stage.
He said a hundred and twenty million dollars a year in revenue.”
Silk Road Founder Made Millions of Dollars a Day
“Next thing you know, he's making millions and millions and millions of dollars a day as the biggest drug dealer on the internet.”
ZURU founder is building an automated house-building factory larger than Tesla's
“He now is building the largest factory in the world, bigger than the Tesla factory, bigger than all that, where robots are going to build houses. Autonomously.”
Puri: Half of finance pros lost money trading with tomorrow's news
“Half the players lost money, even having been given the news. One out of every six players lost everything, and the way they lost everything was they let you trade on leverage.”
Puri: Harvard enrollment flatlined over 20 years while administration grew 40%
“Enrollment has been flat over the last 20 years. Faculty growth has been modest, you know, growing at half a percent, but administration growth has grown by 40% in 20 years.”
Parr: Harvard's operating margin is -40% without its endowment distributions
“He says, the operating margin would be a -40% without distributions from its endowment.”
Rydhan: Meta Quest headset sales have outpaced PlayStation 5 console sales
“And I believe it's outpaced. It's outpaced PS five sales, for example.”
Petersen: Founders Fund compensation is tied to performance over high base salaries
“Founders one actually has a vendor compensation structure. It's almost all tied to the outcomes, the performance, but like a lot of VCs just make super huge. You'd be surprised how high the salaries are at a lot of the, at other VCs.”
Internal 2020 Data Showed Hunter Biden Story Did Not Move Persuadable Voters
“A lot of people said that they were familiar with this Hunter Biden stuff. Not that many people said that it would actually make them less likely to vote for Joe Biden. And then they did focus groups and it came out that people, people did not think that Biden…”
Biden's 2020 Campaign Ignored Progressive Boycotts to Advertise on Breitbart
“There'd been this effort on the left for a while to boycott Fox News and Breitbart websites. The Biden campaign said, no, we're buying advertising there because we want to get next to the content that people are seeing.”
Donald Trump Outsourced Presidential Ground Game to Elon Musk's America PAC
“And the campaign has made a decision to effectively outsource a lot of that You know, what people call ground game or field organization, but the real boots on the ground part of campaigning to America PAC, which is the Elon Musk funded super PAC.”
Shaan Puri: Harry Stebbings will collect $80M in guaranteed management fees
“Harry Stebbings just raised a four hundred million dollar fund. That's amazing. That's incredible, by the way. Harry is gonna make eighty million dollars guaranteed in fees. Just fees. He could be the worst investor in the world.”
Puri: YC's hit rate increased despite larger batch sizes
“A lot of people now think that they're, you know, maybe they've sort of lost their touch, or the batch size are too big, or the valuation is too high, and actually their hit rate has gone up, even as the batch size has gone up.”
Mahlum: Lagree lawsuit settled with machine buyback and non-contact agreement
“For all intents and purposes, he had to buy back his machines from me and we agreed to never talk again, which we haven't.”
Puri: Two-thirds of late-stage startup employee stock options are underwater
“Two thirds of employees right now that are working at these companies are working for options that are actually worth zero, and they probably don't even realize it yet, meaning they got a pay package of stock options at a 24 dollar strike price. That stock is …”
Guo: ElevenLabs is the only independent voice API startup doing $10M+ revenue
“There's like exactly one independent voice API business and tens of millions of revenue, and that's 11.”
Puri: Twitch Growth Was Driven by External Trends, Not Internal Product Features
“When every time somebody did the growth analysis, it's like all the things that caused growth were outs or exogenous factors. It was not some feature we created that drove growth necessarily. It was the popularity of a specific game or it was a new device gets…”
Snapchat copied its famous 'streaks' feature from Draw Something
“Subsequently, somebody at Snap told me, oh yeah, we took that idea of streaks from what you guys had done in that game.”
Means: 95% of US healthcare spending manages existing disease
“The largest and fastest growing industry in the country, and again, largest and fastest growing is the healthcare industry, and 95% of those dollars are around drugging and managing disease of people that are already sick.”
Means: 50% of US teens and 80% of adults are overweight or obese
“So we have something unique going on where 50% of teens are overweight or obese, and then 80% of American adults are overweight or obese.”
Means: 90% of US doctors graduate without taking a single nutrition class
“90% of doctors graduate without taking one nutrition class. To this day.”
Means: Ozempic is 15 times cheaper in Europe than in the US
“The drug is 15 times cheaper in its home country and throughout Europe through totally dysfunctional rigged policies. We're actually literally paying 15 times more as taxpayers for that drug.”
Means: Novo Nordisk Ranks in Top 10 for US Lobbying and TV Ads
“This Danish company is one of the 10 largest lobbyists of US politicians and one of the 10 largest spenders on TV news.”
Means: Pharma Funds US Politicians Five Times More Than Oil Industry
“They fund politicians directly five times more than the oil industry.”
Means: Thousands of ingredients banned in Europe are permitted in US food
“We literally thousands of ingredients that aren't legal in Europe are allowed in the United States.”
Means: HBS Alumni Are the Most Depressed Cohort 10 Years Post-Graduation
“This professor He surveyed white blue collar workers, different socioeconomic classes, you know every different professions, you know, like, 30 different cohorts. The most depressed group was these graduates 10 years out.”
Adcock: US K-12 schools average roughly one shooting per day
“Basically you have like a school shooting, like basically once per day now in the U S in K through 12.”
Adcock: US school shootings increased tenfold over the last decade
“So we basically 10 X the number of school shootings over the last like seven years or so decade.”
Sam Parr: Blue Zones longevity claims are driven by age fraud
“The commonality between the five blue zones is that they have a huge amount of like age fraud.”
Lonsdale: Clarium Exploited BLS Payroll Flaw with 75% Win Rate
“Kevin Harrington was our head of research. He's like genius, crazy physics, biology, interesting guys. He ended up being on the National Security Council later, like super interesting, smart guy. And he like had mapped out this thing I'd helped him with where …”