The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

31held up → 13didn’t hold up → 4partly held up →
70%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone Shaan Puri (36)Sam Parr (10)Joe Liemandt (3)Andrew Wilkinson (3)Michael Saylor (2)Mark O'Brien (2)Kevin Ryan (2)Kevin Rose (2)Brian Halligan (2)Anthony Pompliano (2)Will Ahmed (1)Tony Hawk (1)
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The record (48) every resolved claim →

Prediction Held up
Parr: AI video generation tools will be standard within ten years
“Like if they're not doing it now, like it's reasonable that in the near term of 10 years, like this is going to be normal and add two inches to that guy's neck beard and this is done.”
Sam Parr Oct 18, 2022 ▶ 20:06 9 Business Ideas To Profit From The 2022 A.I. Gold Rush (Using Dall-E & GPT3) (#376)
Prediction Held up
Puri: Companies will launch supplements to remove bodily microplastics
“I also think, by the way, for Plastic Free Everything, that there's gotta be a supplement that people are gonna try to sell that's going to, like, remove the plastic from your balls and your bloodstream. I think people are gonna get on the, you know, Every cat…”
Shaan Puri Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 30:25 6 under-the-radar trends (+ our business ideas)
Prediction Held up
Colleges will spin out athletic departments to private equity
“I think what's going to happen is again, it's uncharted territory. You don't know exactly how it's going to play out, but I think the short version is the college will spin out the program. Their athletics program is its own business entity. They'll sell equit…”
Shaan Puri Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 7:14 We spent 48 hours with MrBeast + 11 Billionaires
Prediction Held up
Parr: Elon Musk will become a trillionaire within 3-5 years
“A person worth one trillion dollars, which is what Elon will be in three or four or five years.”
Sam Parr Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 57:38 The Crazy Story of Google’s 7 Angel investors
Prediction Held up
Guo: AI video generation will produce $1B in revenue
“And so I think this is a good example of, like, I think there's a billion dollars of video generation revenue for them or for others, but, like, you know, you actually have to invest in the product pretty deeply, but it doesn't mean that your wedge can't be re…”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 13:10 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Prediction Held up
Shaan Puri predicts clean tampon startups will reach $100M in revenue
“There will be, trust me, there will be one, there will be two, there will be three that are in this category. Like, the current incumbents will either adapt or be replaced by alternatives that are gonna That are going to play on these health concerns.”
Shaan Puri Jul 22, 2024 ▶ 36:17 Business Brainstorm: SAT Prep Cartoons, The Onion For Millennial Moms & More
Prediction Held up
Jess Mah predicts artificial human egg generation from genetic material by 2028
“Let's say you wanted to be the mother of a child, not the father, and we could take your genetic material and create an egg out of that. I think that we're going to see that within the next five years.”
Jess Mah Dec 4, 2023 ▶ 33:07 From High School Dropout To $952 Million At 33 | Jess Mah Interview (#526)
Prediction Held up
Puri: Legacy consulting giants will acquire billion-dollar AI-specific practices
“I believe that there's going to be billion dollar consulting companies that are specifically just about AI that the big consulting companies, Deloitte, PwC, McKinsey, et cetera, they're going to need to buy They're going to acquire practices that, that do this…”
Shaan Puri Oct 12, 2023 ▶ 17:52 10 AI Startup Ideas in 43 Minutes (#506)
Prediction Held up
Puri: AI agents will create self-executing to-do lists
“And what I realized was that's not going to stop at just cars, that the biggest opportunity is the self-doing to-do list, just like we have the self-driving car. And what's a self-doing to-do list? The self-doing to-do list is going to be, well, all of our pro…”
Shaan Puri Oct 12, 2023 ▶ 36:07 10 AI Startup Ideas in 43 Minutes (#506)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Puri: Sora will be the fastest app to reach 100M downloads
“I think this is going to be the most downloaded app in the history of the world in a short period of time. So I think it'll be like the fastest to get to a hundred million downloads.”
Shaan Puri Oct 3, 2025 ▶ 4:02 The App That’ll Be Bigger Than TikTok
Prediction Held up
Shaan Puri: Meta is preparing to add screens to its smart glasses
“I think they're about to make them good, bad. And what good, bad is they, they're putting like a screen in it.”
Shaan Puri Oct 3, 2025 ▶ 42:23 The App That’ll Be Bigger Than TikTok
Prediction Held up
Ahmed: Talent agencies for deceased people will emerge with AI
“I think that there there's going to be like a talent agency of sorts that's for non-living people.”
Will Ahmed Jan 26, 2023 ▶ 40:51 How I Built Whoop Into A $3.6 BILLION Company (#411)
Prediction Held up
Shaan Puri: The AI email assistant market will be an absolute bloodbath
“I do feel undoubtedly that email inboxes are going to start to have AI in them and the AI is going to help you process, categorize summarize your emails in a way and respond, help you with the responses. The problem is Do I really believe that you are going to…”
Shaan Puri Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 1:16:49 6 College Students Pitch Us Their Startups | MFM Shark Tank
Prediction Partly held up
Luckey: Bitcoin will reach around $100,000 and then stabilize
“My prediction in 2013 was that Bitcoin will go to about a 100,000 dollars and then stabilize. I'm sticking with it. I think it'll get there. I'm not sure that it in particular has the appropriate utility to reach a higher store of value.”
Palmer Luckey Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 28:17 From Flipping iPhones To Selling Oculus For $2 Billion To Facebook | Palmer Luckey (#378)
Prediction Held up
Puri: Developers will scrape Spotify to train open-source AI music models
“Somebody's about to do that for music. They're about to download all the music. They're about to go download all the music off Spotify. And then they're going to train an engine to say, Hey, create new music. This is what music is. Create new music. And that's…”
Shaan Puri Oct 18, 2022 ▶ 1:01:02 9 Business Ideas To Profit From The 2022 A.I. Gold Rush (Using Dall-E & GPT3) (#376)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Current NFT protocols are temporary and won't exist in five years
“But I just think right now it's all half baked and all the Protocols are all made up and won't exist in five years.”
Andrew Wilkinson Dec 31, 2021 ▶ 1:38:41 The Milly Awards 2021
Prediction Held up
Puri believes Friend.tech is not the long-term winning crypto social network
“Frontech, I think is like another kind of like attempt. I don't think it's probably the one but I do think over the long haul, somebody will do that.”
Shaan Puri Oct 17, 2023 ▶ 17:52 Our 2020 Predictions For OpenAI Came True… Here’s What’s Next (#508)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Parr: Zapier can reach a $50B valuation within five years
“Can it be worth 50? Yeah, definitely. Keep in mind, we're talking about like five years from today.”
Sam Parr Sep 17, 2021 ▶ 12:26 12 Startups Where Stock Grants Can Make You a Millionaire | My First Million #220
Prediction Held up
Sam Parr: AI voice cloning will be used in future movie production
“That Anthony Bourdain thing, that's obviously, that's gonna happen. That's gonna happen in the future, how movies are gonna come about.”
Sam Parr Aug 5, 2021 ▶ 7:48 How Venture Capitalists Make Money with Brianne Kimmel | My First Million #206
Prediction Held up
Puri: Labubu will hit $2B to $3B in revenue next year
“So, I actually expect that over the next year, this thing goes even, the star kind of goes viral now, but it burns out, and it hits a two billion or three billion in, in revenue.”
Shaan Puri Jul 9, 2025 ▶ 16:35 How this dumb doll makes $2M per day
Prediction Held up
Parr: A private World's Fair will never reach 50M attendees
“It will never, ever, ever happen at that scale.”
Sam Parr Jun 30, 2021 ▶ 47:38 A Discussion on Sam & Shaan's Recent Investments | My First Million #195
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: By next year, AI will generate synthetic multi-person video discussions
“Next year, it will be me and Yamini talking for 10 minutes about AI, and neither of us will have had the conversation.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 18:52 How the smartest founders are winning in AI
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: There will be no BDRs in one year
“There will be no BDRs in a year.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 1:03:39 How the smartest founders are winning in AI
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Shkreli: Predicts the FTC's $60M antitrust ruling against him will be overturned
“And they won. So I'm appealing that, but they won a sixty million dollar hit against me. So until I figure that out, I'm sort of not, not in the market. It's very like bizarre ruling that I think will get overturned.”
Martin Shkreli Apr 20, 2023 ▶ 54:02 Martin Shkreli Reveals How He Made His First $100 Million (#445)
Prediction Held up
Shaan Puri predicts Kevin Systrom's news app Artifact will fail
“I don't think people want to read a bunch of news in the same way that they're willing to like swipe through mindless videos for entertainment. And so I think that's where Has this problem that a lot of Silicon Valley ideas have, which is they try to sell you …”
Shaan Puri Feb 3, 2023 ▶ 2:06 The Boys React: Tech Layoffs, IG Founder Starts A New Company & More Tech News (#415)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Parr: David Protein on Track for ~$200M in Year-Two Sales
“So this year they're going to do close to two hundred million dollars in sales and roughly the second year of business.”
Sam Parr Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 21:08 This guy made Millions by inventing the $1 Menu
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Rydhan: A fully AI-generated song will likely hit number one in 2025
“If we were doing over under 20, 25 I might pick the under, you know, in 25, like, that would be a good bet.”
Furqan Rydhan Nov 26, 2024 ▶ 28:09 $100B Founder Breaks Down The Biggest AI Business Opportunities For 2025
Prediction Held up
Parr: Handshake data annotation will hit $100M revenue soon
“And so in a very short amount of time, they pivoted and that business that they have is going to be at a hundred million dollars a year in the next couple of months.”
Sam Parr Jun 25, 2025 ▶ 35:40 Business as a sport, Surge AI, and Waymo vs. Robotaxi
Prediction Held up
Adcock: Figure will deploy commercial robots with major brands within 24 months
“And I think we can do these over the next like 24 months. We'll have robots in commercial. Applications with like some of the world's biggest brands.”
Brett Adcock Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 44:43 This $3B Founder Is The Next Elon Musk (#499)
Prediction Held up
Puri: Natural language AI will generate full animations and video
“You're just going to be able to say things and it's going to be able to create what you're saying. So you're going to be able to say, okay, what if Donald Trump was talking to, you know, whatever, Barack Obama, and then Donald jumped in the air and he said thi…”
Shaan Puri May 1, 2020 ▶ 6:44 What Does It Take To Become Rich? How Some People Make Millions! My First Million Podcast 04-02-2020
Prediction Partly held up
Pompliano: Solana will outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum this bull market
“I think Solana is going to go up a lot. It's going to go up a lot more than Bitcoin. I think it's going to go up a lot more than Ethereum in this specific bull market. Cause it's a smaller market cap. There's a lot of energy and excitement around it and all th…”
Anthony Pompliano Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 1:07:01 The Man Who Owns 1% Of ALL Bitcoin
Prediction Held up
Pompliano: Bitcoin price will probably rise as halving cuts supply amid ETF demand
“The Bitcoin halving is coming, and that's just when the daily incoming supply, the number of Bitcoin that get created each day, is gonna get cut in half, from 900 Bitcoin to 450. So like, I always joke, if you went to Economics one-on-one class, supply and de…”
Anthony Pompliano Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 3:02 The Man Who Owns 1% Of ALL Bitcoin
Prediction Held up
Puri predicts Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election
“I think Donald Trump's gonna win.”
Shaan Puri Sep 7, 2023 ▶ 38:15 Buffett’s Money Wisdom, Galloway’s $100M Advice & Why Newsletters Suck (#493)
Prediction Held up
Puri: AI will soon power a viral personality test or astrology app
“I think that's going to happen very soon. And this, we'll look back at this clip and be like, dude, he called it. John called it that that was going to happen. It has to happen.”
Shaan Puri Sep 19, 2023 ▶ 57:08 Brainstorming +$1M Business Ideas With Soylent's Co-Founder | ft. John Coogan (#496)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Puri: Thrasio will go public at a $10B valuation
“They're going to go public at a ten billion dollar valuation.”
Shaan Puri Sep 17, 2021 ▶ 37:21 12 Startups Where Stock Grants Can Make You a Millionaire | My First Million #220
Prediction Partly held up
Puri: OpenStore has a very good shot of reaching a $1B valuation
“With this guy's track record, Square, Opendoor with Jack Abraham's track record, there's a very good shot that this ends up being, being worth more, more than a billion dollars.”
Shaan Puri Sep 17, 2021 ▶ 36:51 12 Startups Where Stock Grants Can Make You a Millionaire | My First Million #220
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Puri: Peak will reach $100M in sales within three years
“I think there'll be I think there'll be at a hundred million in sales in the next three years. That's my prediction, my bet.”
Shaan Puri May 13, 2021 ▶ 11:37 How Virtual Horses are Making Millions & A Potential 9-Figure Company | My First Million #181
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sanchez: California government will be biggest home buyer in downturn
“One of the interesting things is like the biggest buyers of homes in California, for instance in, in this downturn, in my opinion is going to be the government because they've essentially made it where if this is not your primary residence, you cannot buy thes…”
Codie Sanchez Apr 28, 2021 ▶ 42:14 How to Buy Distressed Assets, How to Network with Codie Sanchez | My First Million Ep. #176
Prediction Held up
Yanowitz: MakerDAO will generate $100M in revenue in 2023
“So MakerDAO, for example. They'll do a hundred million of revenue this year.”
Jason Yanowitz Sep 28, 2023 ▶ 51:32 How Jason Yanowitz Bootstrapped Blockworks To A +$20M/yr Company
Prediction Held up
Shah: Prompt-driven text-to-video with director styles will arrive in 2023
“I would not be surprised, let's say by the end of this year, that we have a reasonable way to kind of describe in textual form what we want, who the characters are, what the scene is what kind of stylistic attributes we want. We can point it to, oh, I want thi…”
Dharmesh Shah Mar 30, 2023 ▶ 26:16 Brainstorming ChatGPT Business Ideas With A Billionaire | ft. Dharmesh Shah (#438)
Prediction Held up
Wilkinson: Major AI competitors to GPT-3 will emerge within six months
“There's going to be a lot of. A lot of other players in that space coming out over the next probably three to six months. And that it will be, there's going to be an ecosystem of offering similar to AWS and Azure and Google cloud. I think it'll be the same thi…”
Andrew Wilkinson Dec 29, 2022 ▶ 1:06:44 The 2022 Milly Awards (#401)
Prediction Held up
Puri predicts UserTesting will IPO within 12 to 24 months
“User testing has become a very large company, hundreds of millions in revenue, and will go public, you know, probably in the next 12 to 24 months is my guess.”
Shaan Puri May 13, 2021 ▶ 33:01 How Virtual Horses are Making Millions & A Potential 9-Figure Company | My First Million #181
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Parr predicts Blockworks will sell for $40M-$50M within 18 months
“If I had a bet, I would imagine you're going to see this company sell for in the 40 to fifty million dollar range in the next 18 months.”
Sam Parr Jul 14, 2021 ▶ 19:08 When to Go All In on an Idea & the Crypto Exchange That Could Have Been | My First Million #200
Prediction Held up
Holiday: Discipline Is Destiny will sell over 40,000 copies in week one
“We'll probably come in a bit above 40,000 copies the first week. I would venture to guess could be higher if they keep trending this way.”
Ryan Holiday Oct 4, 2022 ▶ 1:23 Ryan Holiday Reveals How Much Best Selling Authors Make, Crazy Peter Thiel Stories & More (#370)
Prediction Held up
Shaan Puri: More companies will put treasury reserves in Bitcoin within a year
“It's likely that there are more companies out there and it'll take them six months to a year to make this move, but they will take a portion of their treasury reserves and they'll move it into Bitcoin.”
Shaan Puri Mar 17, 2021 ▶ 1:08:38 MFM #161: Why Michael Saylor Believes Bitcoin is Hope
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Puri: Strip Mall Guy will hit 100K Twitter followers within six months
“By the way, he's at 22,000 followers now. He's at I bet you he's at a hundred in less than six months.”
Shaan Puri Sep 15, 2021 ▶ 21:47 Why You Should Take a Think Week Like Bill Gates | My First Million #218
Prediction Partly held up
Parr: AppSumo will hit $100M gross and $50M net revenue
“Noah Kagan runs this company called AppSumo. It's a weekly email where you get deals on software this year. They're going to do a hundred million in gross revenue of which like, 50, fifty million is their revenue.”
Sam Parr May 13, 2021 ▶ 1:02:16 How Virtual Horses are Making Millions & A Potential 9-Figure Company | My First Million #181
Prediction Held up
Parr predicts SXSW 2020 will be canceled
“I predict South by Southwest, This episode will air in a couple days. I bet you they're gonna cancel.”
Sam Parr Mar 12, 2020 ▶ 14:45 Nicotine Gum, Dating Apps for the Elderly & Vested Shares Tax | My First Million Podcast 03-03-2020
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