The Ledger

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why aren't all 70 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Anthropic has completely overtaken OpenAI in revenue
“So I'm just curious how you reconcile what you were saying about the costs and everything with just the unprecedented growth that Anthropic has seen and the like flippening with open AI where it has just completely overtaken open AI from a revenue perspective.”
Amir Efrati May 29, 2026 ▶ 20:02 Normal People Don't Want AI Agents (And Silicon Valley Can't Accept It) · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Lessin: Trial revealed Altman paid Brockman $10M from family office
“It was revealed that Altman, because it was a nonprofit back then, was paid Greg ten million dollars out of his, like, own family office and kept it from Elon, and so all these sort of alliances were being formed beneath the surface, and it just seemed like a …”
Jessica Lessin May 8, 2026 ▶ 41:23 Why the Met Gala Hates Tech, Elon vs OpenAI Drama, and the Rise of Chinese AI Models · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for an IPO soon
“Breaking news from the information and other outlets is that OpenAI confidentially filing soon.”
Jessica Lessin May 22, 2026 ▶ 2:12 Google I/O Just Killed SEO? Agentic Search, Universal Cart, and the New Web · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Leaked OpenAI memo targeted Anthropic's ARR math and compute investment
“There was a memo that was leaked from OpenAI, an OpenAI memo that was leaked. I think it was in OpenAI's interest for this memo to be out there. I also think it was written in a way where they wanted it to be out there, where they came after Anthropic. Both fo…”
Jessica Lessin Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 27:05 Allbirds Pivoted to AI Data Centers | SpaceX $1.5T IPO, Anthropic $800B, $175M Seed Rounds
Assertion Supported
OpenAI considered an antitrust complaint against Microsoft, WSJ reported
“The journal reported that OpenAI had considered an antitrust complaint against Microsoft.”
Jessica Lessin Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 27:08 #104: AI Clones, Commoditized Ads, and the Cult of Trust · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Wolfe: OpenAI has produced six spin-offs valued at tens of billions
“So far with OpenAI, valuation has gone from, like, you know, sub hundred million to trillion and plus, and you've had six diaspora companies that have all achieved, you know, tens of billions of dollars that have spun off of it.”
Josh Wolfe Aug 14, 2026 ▶ 45:38 Special Edition MOL with Josh Wolfe, Rachel Holt, Scott Belsky, Scott Stanford, and Peter Deng. · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Lilian Weng Rejoined OpenAI After Leaving Thinking Machines Lab
“Well, guess I read in the information today that she started at OpenAI. Started back up at OpenAI.”
Jessica Lessin Jul 31, 2026 ▶ 47:54 The Lilian Weng Saga, Mental Health Essay Then OpenAI | Meta's AI Ad, China Cracks DUV
Assertion Partly supported
OpenAI burned $4 billion on $5.7 billion revenue in Q1 2026
“We reported, by the way, last night that OpenAI burned four billion in the first quarter on revenue of 5.7.”
Jessica Lessin Jun 19, 2026 ▶ 21:44 SpaceX Hit $2.5 Trillion. Now Watch What Elon Buys Next. · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Greg Brockman's OpenAI stake is worth about $30 billion
“You know, it also came out that Brockman's stake is worth about thirty billion dollars, which is a point that he was just grilled on and asked, well, why haven't you donated it?”
Jessica Lessin May 8, 2026 ▶ 41:41 Why the Met Gala Hates Tech, Elon vs OpenAI Drama, and the Rise of Chinese AI Models · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
OpenAI court filing reveals Elon Musk approached Brockman about a settlement
“OpenAI also revealed in a filing that Musk had approached them about his, Brockman, about a potential settlement two days before.”
Jessica Lessin May 8, 2026 ▶ 44:08 Why the Met Gala Hates Tech, Elon vs OpenAI Drama, and the Rise of Chinese AI Models · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Morin: ChatGPT has not topped 800M users and growth is declining
“ChatGPT itself still isn't beyond eight hundred million people, and it's declining in growth right now.”
Dave Morin May 8, 2026 ▶ 22:18 Why the Met Gala Hates Tech, Elon vs OpenAI Drama, and the Rise of Chinese AI Models · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Jessica Lessin asserts that OpenAI is definitely not pausing its advertising
“Guys, they're so not pausing ads.”
Jessica Lessin Dec 5, 2025 ▶ 35:44 Code Red, Bitcoin Costs, AWS Resurgence, and Waymo Safety (Not About AI... ish) · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: Altman warned OpenAI staff 'vibes are going to be tough'
“We published a memo week or so ago, or details from a memo, quotes from a memo in which Sam Altman, ahead of the Gemini launch, but clearly when the team had been testing it, needed to rally his troops. And he said, the vibes are going to be tough out there. O…”
Jessica Lessin Nov 28, 2025 ▶ 56:12 OpenAI vs Google vs Meta: Business Model War · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI CFO stated advertising will become part of business model
“Their CFO is out there saying advertising is going to be a part of our business model publicly.”
Jessica Lessin Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 34:56 #108 Meta vs. OpenAI: Who Wins the Next Attention War? · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Jessica Lessin: State attorneys general ruled OpenAI cannot become for-profit
“It still is a non-profit. The AGs of the world have decided they cannot become a for-profit, so.”
Jessica Lessin Jun 27, 2025 ▶ 22:02 #105: Tesla, Bumble, And Bezos' Wedding - Everything Is A Mess · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Lessin: OpenAI Is Cutting Prices to Directly Undercut Microsoft
“There are two ways if you're a business to get open AI. You can get them from Microsoft or you can get them from OpenAI. What's OpenAI doing? It's cutting the price to undercut Microsoft.”
Jessica Lessin Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 26:32 #104: AI Clones, Commoditized Ads, and the Cult of Trust · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin: OpenAI publicly indicated interest in buying Google's Chrome browser
“Like I found it really interesting that open AI was first to raise their hand this morning about You know, hey, we'll buy Chrome.”
Dave Morin Apr 25, 2025 ▶ 15:38 Google & Meta Trials, AI’s Media Collapse & Elon’s Tesla Comeback · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI is projected to lose $44 billion through 2028
“They're only projected to lose forty four billion between. 2023 and 20 28, according to the information.”
Jessica Lessin Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 25:04 Can Tesla Survive? | More or Less #93 · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI is discussing converting to a B Corp
“I think it's very likely we've reported they're talking about converting to a B Corp, which is a company which would essentially completely liberate him from the nonprofit kind of overhang and the issues that had that board boot him.”
Jessica Lessin Jun 28, 2024 ▶ 15:29 #53: What We Got Wrong—and Right—in a Year of More or Less · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Microsoft Is Developing Cheaper In-House AI to Avoid OpenAI Costs
“So Microsoft, who's ten billion dollars into open AI, gave it exclusive access to their IP, has decided in part because it's too expensive to run, they're going to build a cheaper functional enough version to have to power some of these applications.”
Jessica Lessin Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 32:57 #16: Why Your AI Startup is Probably Already Dead · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
OpenAI will never release a consumer hardware device
“I don't think there ever will be an open AI hardware device.”
Brit Morin Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 42:56 OpenAI Can’t Hold a Lead, Stripe Buys OpenRouter & AI Hits a Wall · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
OpenAI pushed out its head of revenue overseeing enterprise corporate business
“They pushed out their head of revenue, the woman who's doing the corporate business and just replaced her.”
Jessica Lessin Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 28:26 OpenAI Can’t Hold a Lead, Stripe Buys OpenRouter & AI Hits a Wall · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: OpenAI won Elon Musk lawsuit because jury ruled he filed late
“We should mention, everyone knows, that OpenAI won a decisive victory in their Elon Musk trial. That came down to the jury deciding Elon was too late to file this lawsuit.”
Jessica Lessin May 22, 2026 ▶ 46:43 Google I/O Just Killed SEO? Agentic Search, Universal Cart, and the New Web · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Sam Altman offers enterprises two free months of Codex tokens
“Sam Altman today tweeted that enterprises who want to move to Codex can get their first two months of tokens free.”
Brit Morin May 15, 2026 ▶ 14:04 Google's AI-First Laptop, Meta's Spy Games, AI Monks in Middle America · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Morin: OpenAI Engineers Contribute as OpenClaw Maintainers
“They have actually a couple of people contributing from the open AI engineering team have been contributing as open source maintainers. Obviously Peter is the largest contributor and he technically works at open AI.”
Dave Morin May 8, 2026 ▶ 48:30 Why the Met Gala Hates Tech, Elon vs OpenAI Drama, and the Rise of Chinese AI Models · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: OpenAI and Anthropic represent half of major cloud deal backlogs
“And then we charted of the, we just had earnings, of the backlogs in deals for Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon, what percentage are OpenAI's commitment and Anthropi's commitment? It's together, they're about half, ok?”
Jessica Lessin May 8, 2026 ▶ 34:38 Why the Met Gala Hates Tech, Elon vs OpenAI Drama, and the Rise of Chinese AI Models · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Musk vs. OpenAI trial scheduled to start Monday over for-profit conversion
“This upcoming Monday is scheduled to be the start of the Elon Musk vs. OpenAI trial. The central question of which was, did OpenAI have the right to convert from a nonprofit to a for-profit, and what should Elon be compensated as well, having been one of the b…”
Jessica Lessin Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 22:58 What Tim Cook’s “Executive Chairman” Move Really Means | Musk vs OpenAI, xAI and Cursor Rumors
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI raised $3B from retail investors in latest round
“OpenAI's Monster Fundraising, complete with three billion dollars in raises from retail investors.”
Jessica Lessin Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 32:12 OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Makes Zero Sense (ClawCon Tokyo, Anthropic's Leak, Goodbye Internet)
Assertion Supported
Lessin: The Information broke that Amazon may invest $10B in OpenAI
“Did you guys see, by the way, the information breaking this week that Amazon is in talks to invest ten billion dollars in OpenAI?”
Jessica Lessin Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 13:24 Hype vs Reality: Our 2026 Predictions for Tech, Media, and Culture · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin says Apple and Google partnered for Gemini to power Siri
“Google and Apple are doing a Siri deal, so Siri is going to be powered by Gemini, essentially, until, until Apple, quote, figures it out, but it, there seems to be this pattern here of Apple realizing Google is, is pretty good at this stuff, and they'll be pre…”
Jessica Lessin Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 13:28 Apple Chooses Gemini, Sequoia's Leadership Shake-up, and Meme Coins · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI and Google have struck a cloud deal
“And so now all of a sudden Google like open AI actually in Google. Have a deal. A cloud deal. It's, like, wild.”
Jessica Lessin Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 37:31 #118 Elon vs Altman: The $10B Capital War Reshaping Tech · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Dave Morin: OpenAI was forced to extend its recent funding round
“We've got OpenAI having to do an extension of their round.”
Dave Morin Jul 25, 2025 ▶ 25:26 #109 OpenAI vs Google: The Real Business Model War Begins · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: OpenAI issued an internal panic memo over Meta poaching talent
“Then this memo came out of OpenAI saying, like, our house has been raided. We have to reconsider all these things. I also hear they have a week-long vacation this week, pre-planned at OpenAI.”
Jessica Lessin Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 41:15 #106: AI Researchers Earning More Than Cristiano Ronaldo · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Brit Morin: OpenAI acquired AI coding startup Windsurf for $3B
“Windsurf obviously got sold to OpenAI for three billion.”
Brit Morin May 9, 2025 ▶ 7:55 OpenAI Acquires Windsurf for $3B, Google's Stock Dips | #98 · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Jessica Lessin: Gemini's Daily Active Users Are Three Quarters of ChatGPT's
“I mean, if you look at daily actives, Gemini is about three quarters of ChatGPT at the moment.”
Jessica Lessin May 2, 2025 ▶ 16:42 How OpenAI Is Beating Google and Meta at Their Own Game · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI is on track to hit $12.7B in 2025 revenue
“I mean, we reported their revenue target this year is 12.7 billion up from four last year, and they're on track to hit it.”
Jessica Lessin Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 24:20 Can Tesla Survive? | More or Less #93 · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Dave Morin: OpenAI Study Shows LLMs Complete Only ~40% of Upwork Tasks
“OpenAI put out a new study about software engineering tasks and whether or not LLMs can pick up random software engineering tasks off Upwork, and what percentage of them can they complete? And it's only something like 40%, and crucially, LLMs can fix bugs, but…”
Dave Morin Feb 21, 2025 ▶ 10:55 #87: SKIMS To Revive Nike? AI Drama & The Satoshi Mystery · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: OpenAI's board decided to reject Musk's $97B bid
“What we did also break was that the board had decided to reject the offer.”
Jessica Lessin Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 25:58 #86: Elon’s $97B Curveball For OpenAI · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Rauch: Copilot gave Microsoft conviction in OpenAI after broader bets
“I was interviewing Nat Freeman today for our internal Vercel podcast today, and he was talking about how much conviction Microsoft got into OpenAI because of the effectiveness of Copilot. Like when Satya saw Copilot, when they were doing the initial iterations…”
Guillermo Rauch Dec 27, 2024 ▶ 1:34:34 #79: The More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 1 (AI Highlights) · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin claims OpenAI is actively working on developing a web browser
“OpenAI is working on developing a browser”
Jessica Lessin Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 34:25 #77: Sora Reveal, Google's AI Agents and Digital Trade Under Trump · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Partly held up
Dave Morin: Unprofitable OpenAI and Anthropic will be forced to increase prices
“Like at the rate they're having to raise capital and at the unprofitability of their business models, they can only increase prices from here.”
Dave Morin Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 20:30 #67: OpenAI Sets a Record and Will Apple Make Its Next Move? · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: TikTok Pays Microsoft $20M a Month for Azure OpenAI
“I read in the information that TikTok is paying Microsoft Twenty million dollars a month to access open AI through Azure.”
Jessica Lessin Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 21:32 #58: The Death of Friends · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI Generates $1 Billion Annually Selling AI Model Access
“Yeah, I mean, as my colleagues at The Information have reported, OpenAI is making a billion dollars a year in selling access to its model.”
Jessica Lessin Jul 26, 2024 ▶ 19:28 #57: Zuckerberg’s Open Source AI Manifesto · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: Most of Microsoft's $10B OpenAI deal is cloud credits, not cash
“We saw it with Microsoft's huge, you know, ten billion dollar investment in OpenAI, huge portion of which isn't in cash. But it's in credits”
Jessica Lessin Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 17:00 #39: How (Not?) to Exit Your AI Company, Analyzing the New Google-Apple Tie Up · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI is actively developing an AI agent and search engine
“The two new products coming out of OpenAI, one being the agent, the other being a search engine.”
Jessica Lessin Feb 16, 2024 ▶ 48:51 #34: 7 Trillion Reasons Why · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Sam Altman Pursues Major Outside Projects Beyond OpenAI
“Sam Altman doesn't just lead OpenAI. He runs or, you know, is, is hugely involved in Helios, a big nuclear project, in WorldCoin, big crypto project, He is one of the most prolific investors in Silicon Valley, and he was pursuing two side projects in recent mo…”
Jessica Lessin Nov 22, 2023 ▶ 36:54 #24: Sam Altman - Religious Cult Leader or CEO? · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Lessin: OpenAI is trying to raise capital at a $90 billion valuation
“OpenAI is trying to raise money at 90.”
Jessica Lessin Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 3:07 #17: How to Save Your Startup, Twitter/X, Threads (and Swift’s Stunt Romance) · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: Sam Altman and Jony Ive are discussing an AI device
“Myself and my amazing colleagues at the Information Broker story recently that Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, and Johnny Ive, the former Apple designer and designer of the iPhone, Have been deep in conversations about building a hardware device together that k…”
Jessica Lessin Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 6:21 #16: Why Your AI Startup is Probably Already Dead · More or Less Podcast
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