why aren't all 70 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Anthropic has completely overtaken OpenAI in revenue
“So I'm just curious how you reconcile what you were saying about the costs and everything with just the unprecedented growth that Anthropic has seen and the like flippening with open AI where it has just completely overtaken open AI from a revenue perspective.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lessin: Trial revealed Altman paid Brockman $10M from family office
“It was revealed that Altman, because it was a nonprofit back then, was paid Greg ten million dollars out of his, like, own family office and kept it from Elon, and so all these sort of alliances were being formed beneath the surface, and it just seemed like a …”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for an IPO soon
“Breaking news from the information and other outlets is that OpenAI confidentially filing soon.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Leaked OpenAI memo targeted Anthropic's ARR math and compute investment
“There was a memo that was leaked from OpenAI, an OpenAI memo that was leaked. I think it was in OpenAI's interest for this memo to be out there. I also think it was written in a way where they wanted it to be out there, where they came after Anthropic. Both fo…”
Assertion Supported
OpenAI considered an antitrust complaint against Microsoft, WSJ reported
“The journal reported that OpenAI had considered an antitrust complaint against Microsoft.”
Assertion Partly supported
Wolfe: OpenAI has produced six spin-offs valued at tens of billions
“So far with OpenAI, valuation has gone from, like, you know, sub hundred million to trillion and plus, and you've had six diaspora companies that have all achieved, you know, tens of billions of dollars that have spun off of it.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Lilian Weng Rejoined OpenAI After Leaving Thinking Machines Lab
“Well, guess I read in the information today that she started at OpenAI.
Started back up at OpenAI.”
Assertion Partly supported
OpenAI burned $4 billion on $5.7 billion revenue in Q1 2026
“We reported, by the way, last night that OpenAI burned four billion in the first quarter on revenue of 5.7.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Greg Brockman's OpenAI stake is worth about $30 billion
“You know, it also came out that Brockman's stake is worth about thirty billion dollars, which is a point that he was just grilled on and asked, well, why haven't you donated it?”
Assertion Supported
OpenAI court filing reveals Elon Musk approached Brockman about a settlement
“OpenAI also revealed in a filing that Musk had approached them about his, Brockman, about a potential settlement two days before.”
Assertion Partly supported
Morin: ChatGPT has not topped 800M users and growth is declining
“ChatGPT itself still isn't beyond eight hundred million people, and it's declining in growth right now.”
Assertion Partly supported
Jessica Lessin asserts that OpenAI is definitely not pausing its advertising
“Guys, they're so not pausing ads.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: Altman warned OpenAI staff 'vibes are going to be tough'
“We published a memo week or so ago, or details from a memo, quotes from a memo in which Sam Altman, ahead of the Gemini launch, but clearly when the team had been testing it, needed to rally his troops. And he said, the vibes are going to be tough out there. O…”
Assertion Partly supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI CFO stated advertising will become part of business model
“Their CFO is out there saying advertising is going to be a part of our business model publicly.”
Assertion Contradicted
Jessica Lessin: State attorneys general ruled OpenAI cannot become for-profit
“It still is a non-profit. The AGs of the world have decided they cannot become a for-profit, so.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lessin: OpenAI Is Cutting Prices to Directly Undercut Microsoft
“There are two ways if you're a business to get open AI. You can get them from Microsoft or you can get them from OpenAI. What's OpenAI doing? It's cutting the price to undercut Microsoft.”
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin: OpenAI publicly indicated interest in buying Google's Chrome browser
“Like I found it really interesting that open AI was first to raise their hand this morning about
You know, hey, we'll buy Chrome.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI is projected to lose $44 billion through 2028
“They're only projected to lose forty four billion between. 2023 and 20 28, according to the information.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI is discussing converting to a B Corp
“I think it's very likely we've reported they're talking about converting to a B Corp, which is a company which would essentially completely liberate him from the nonprofit kind of overhang and the issues that had that board boot him.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Microsoft Is Developing Cheaper In-House AI to Avoid OpenAI Costs
“So Microsoft, who's ten billion dollars into open AI, gave it exclusive access to their IP, has decided in part because it's too expensive to run, they're going to build a cheaper functional enough version to have to power some of these applications.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
OpenAI will never release a consumer hardware device
“I don't think there ever will be an open AI hardware device.”
Assertion Supported
OpenAI pushed out its head of revenue overseeing enterprise corporate business
“They pushed out their head of revenue, the woman who's doing the corporate business and just replaced her.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: OpenAI won Elon Musk lawsuit because jury ruled he filed late
“We should mention, everyone knows, that OpenAI won a decisive victory in their Elon Musk trial. That came down to the jury deciding Elon was too late to file this lawsuit.”
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Sam Altman offers enterprises two free months of Codex tokens
“Sam Altman today tweeted that enterprises who want to move to Codex can get their first two months of tokens free.”
Assertion Supported
Morin: OpenAI Engineers Contribute as OpenClaw Maintainers
“They have actually a couple of people contributing from the open AI engineering team have been contributing as open source maintainers. Obviously Peter is the largest contributor and he technically works at open AI.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: OpenAI and Anthropic represent half of major cloud deal backlogs
“And then we charted of the, we just had earnings, of the backlogs in deals for Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon, what percentage are OpenAI's commitment and Anthropi's commitment? It's together, they're about half, ok?”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Musk vs. OpenAI trial scheduled to start Monday over for-profit conversion
“This upcoming Monday is scheduled to be the start of the Elon Musk vs. OpenAI trial. The central question of which was, did OpenAI have the right to convert from a nonprofit to a for-profit, and what should Elon be compensated as well, having been one of the b…”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI raised $3B from retail investors in latest round
“OpenAI's Monster Fundraising, complete with three billion dollars in raises from retail investors.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: The Information broke that Amazon may invest $10B in OpenAI
“Did you guys see, by the way, the information breaking this week that Amazon is in talks to invest ten billion dollars in OpenAI?”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin says Apple and Google partnered for Gemini to power Siri
“Google and Apple are doing a Siri deal, so Siri is going to be powered by Gemini, essentially, until, until Apple, quote, figures it out, but it, there seems to be this pattern here of Apple realizing Google is, is pretty good at this stuff, and they'll be pre…”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI and Google have struck a cloud deal
“And so now all of a sudden Google like open AI actually in Google. Have a deal. A cloud deal. It's, like, wild.”
Assertion Partly supported
Dave Morin: OpenAI was forced to extend its recent funding round
“We've got OpenAI having to do an extension of their round.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: OpenAI issued an internal panic memo over Meta poaching talent
“Then this memo came out of OpenAI saying, like, our house has been raided. We have to reconsider all these things. I also hear they have a week-long vacation this week, pre-planned at OpenAI.”
Assertion Contradicted
Brit Morin: OpenAI acquired AI coding startup Windsurf for $3B
“Windsurf obviously got sold to OpenAI for three billion.”
Assertion Contradicted
Jessica Lessin: Gemini's Daily Active Users Are Three Quarters of ChatGPT's
“I mean, if you look at daily actives, Gemini is about three quarters of ChatGPT at the moment.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI is on track to hit $12.7B in 2025 revenue
“I mean, we reported their revenue target this year is 12.7 billion up from four last year, and they're on track to hit it.”
Assertion Partly supported
Dave Morin: OpenAI Study Shows LLMs Complete Only ~40% of Upwork Tasks
“OpenAI put out a new study about software engineering tasks and whether or not LLMs can pick up random software engineering tasks off Upwork, and what percentage of them can they complete? And it's only something like 40%, and crucially, LLMs can fix bugs, but…”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: OpenAI's board decided to reject Musk's $97B bid
“What we did also break was that the board had decided to reject the offer.”
Assertion Supported
Rauch: Copilot gave Microsoft conviction in OpenAI after broader bets
“I was interviewing Nat Freeman today for our internal Vercel podcast today, and he was talking about how much conviction Microsoft got into OpenAI because of the effectiveness of Copilot. Like when Satya saw Copilot, when they were doing the initial iterations…”
Assertion Supported
Lessin claims OpenAI is actively working on developing a web browser
“OpenAI is working on developing a browser”
Prediction Partly held up
Dave Morin: Unprofitable OpenAI and Anthropic will be forced to increase prices
“Like at the rate they're having to raise capital and at the unprofitability of their business models, they can only increase prices from here.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: TikTok Pays Microsoft $20M a Month for Azure OpenAI
“I read in the information that TikTok is paying Microsoft Twenty million dollars a month to access open AI through Azure.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI Generates $1 Billion Annually Selling AI Model Access
“Yeah, I mean, as my colleagues at The Information have reported, OpenAI is making a billion dollars a year in selling access to its model.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: Most of Microsoft's $10B OpenAI deal is cloud credits, not cash
“We saw it with Microsoft's huge, you know, ten billion dollar investment in OpenAI, huge portion of which isn't in cash. But it's in credits”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI is actively developing an AI agent and search engine
“The two new products coming out of OpenAI, one being the agent, the other being a search engine.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Sam Altman Pursues Major Outside Projects Beyond OpenAI
“Sam Altman doesn't just lead OpenAI. He runs or, you know, is, is hugely involved in Helios, a big nuclear project, in WorldCoin, big crypto project, He is one of the most prolific investors in Silicon Valley, and he was pursuing two side projects in recent mo…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lessin: OpenAI is trying to raise capital at a $90 billion valuation
“OpenAI is trying to raise money at 90.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: Sam Altman and Jony Ive are discussing an AI device
“Myself and my amazing colleagues at the Information Broker story recently that Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, and Johnny Ive, the former Apple designer and designer of the iPhone, Have been deep in conversations about building a hardware device together that k…”