The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 307 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 11 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brit Morin: OpenAI's Atlas browser delivers a far worse ChatGPT experience
“I signed in with my OpenAI account, obviously, and then I started using it like I would have used ChatGPT in my Google Chrome browser, and it was hallucinating way more. It didn't have like a lot of memory stored about all the things I had talked to it about. …”
Sam Lessin: Sora is loose on copyright, strict on content moderation
“I'm just saying like that they've got, it's they've got a very interesting model going on right now where it's very loose on copyright and extremely tight on content moderation.”
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI and Google have struck a cloud deal
“And so now all of a sudden Google like open AI actually in Google. Have a deal. A cloud deal. It's, like, wild.”
Dave Morin: Kids will access harmful AI models regardless of guardrails
“Kids are gonna get access to this stuff. Just like, you know, everyone, our generation, parents tried, tried, tried to keep pouring away from them, but that didn't work. Right? Like the kids are gonna get the bad stuff no matter what we do.”
Sam Lessin: Frontier foundation AI model companies are terrible businesses
“These are terrible business.”
Sam Lessin: Tesla and OpenAI only exist because of Elon Musk's marketing
“And so I'd say that like, I would say that just in the spectrum of like, Tesla only exists as Tesla, because Elon is a great marketer, right? Like, I would say that the same thing is true of OpenAI is like, it was a very explicit marketing heavy strategy.”
Lessin: AI value will concentrate in vertical applications over general platforms
“So I do think you end up with like more vertical applications, leveraging this versus like platformy type stuff and open-ended type stuff, which again, we've also been talking about forever.”
Jessica Lessin: Anthropic will probably IPO before OpenAI
“I think Anthropic probably does it before OpenAI because they need it more, right? So if you put the need before, although I think Google and Amazon will continue to fund them.”
Dave Morin: OpenAI was forced to extend its recent funding round
“We've got OpenAI having to do an extension of their round.”
Jessica Lessin: Apple is not yet in the frontier AI league
“Apple is not in this league yet. They're doing cool things in AI in different areas, but, like, they're not-”
Lessin: OpenAI issued an internal panic memo over Meta poaching talent
“Then this memo came out of OpenAI saying, like, our house has been raided. We have to reconsider all these things. I also hear they have a week-long vacation this week, pre-planned at OpenAI.”
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI has discussed developing a productivity suite
“The information broke this week that OpenAI has been discussing. We don't know exactly the status, but sort of a Doc's productivity, like, sweet product.”
Sam Lessin: OpenAI's non-profit origins deflected strict copyright scrutiny
“I think everyone, Would have been way more on top of the copyright thing if they didn't, like, have this kind of, like, altruistic background. They're just doing research thing.”
Morin: ChatGPT consistently outperforms Google Gemini on general contextual queries
“I've actually tried, I tried what you just described this week several times where I asked the same question to both. And ChatGPT always answers better in context, like in a way that makes me feel like the work is better than what Gemini answers for me. Not in…”
Lessin: Gemini is way better than OpenAI at coding and documentation
“I was using OpenAI for a bunch of stuff, and just, like, realized that Gemini is, like, way better at this, right? Like, in terms of, like, it's just, like, wild to me that, like, Gemini's way better. And then you're like, oh, it turns out that, like, it also …”
Morin: Frontier AI subscriptions are hardware replacements, not conventional SaaS
“These AI Companies and business models that they are like computers. They're not like services. Like I buy chat GPT pro because I want to have the best computer to use for my, you know, everyday life. Just like I buy a new Mac book once every two years or a ne…”
Brit Morin: OpenAI acquired AI coding startup Windsurf for $3B
“Windsurf obviously got sold to OpenAI for three billion.”
Sam Lessin: OpenAI should acquire Snap to distribute its AI features
“I think the reality is that open AI really probably should just buy Snap. It's basically fucking free. Doesn't cost anything. Then they can put their little AI buttons all over everything, too, in an app that they own, just to keep it fair, you know?”
Jessica Lessin: Gemini's Daily Active Users Are Three Quarters of ChatGPT's
“I mean, if you look at daily actives, Gemini is about three quarters of ChatGPT at the moment.”
Sam Lessin: Consumers will use multiple AIs rather than locking into one
“Are you going to have a monogamous AI relationship? Doubtful. Right. Like, I think like, if anything, polyamory is on the rise in society. You know what I mean? Like, I think like, you're just going to like, Have lots of AIs in your life.”
Brit Morin: Users will pay more for ChatGPT as features expand
“I think there's elasticity in like the pricing mechanisms that they offer right now, where as there are more product features and tools to be had, which I don't think it's just going to be like this format forever. I will probably pay more as both a consumer a…”
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI is on track to hit $12.7B in 2025 revenue
“I mean, we reported their revenue target this year is 12.7 billion up from four last year, and they're on track to hit it.”
Private AI Startups Trade at 40x to 150x Revenue, Dwarfing Public SaaS
“Oh, this is Anthropic, Harvey, Glean, OpenAI, and Writer. Perplexity is at more than a 150 X. They would be the outlier. And I believe public SaaS is about an eight X.”
Dave Morin: OpenAI Study Shows LLMs Complete Only ~40% of Upwork Tasks
“OpenAI put out a new study about software engineering tasks and whether or not LLMs can pick up random software engineering tasks off Upwork, and what percentage of them can they complete? And it's only something like 40%, and crucially, LLMs can fix bugs, but…”
Dave Morin: OpenAI 'Crushes All of Them' on Deep Research Mode
“I've been testing all of them on, ah, deep research mode, and OpenAI by far crushes all of them.”
Lessin: OpenAI's board decided to reject Musk's $97B bid
“What we did also break was that the board had decided to reject the offer.”
Dave Morin: Fundamentalist ideologies become cults and cause grave miscalculations
“All fundamentalisms, and we've seen quite a, even, you know, in the last few months, we've seen other forms of fundamentalism make grave miscalculations in terms of the actions that they take in the real world. And fundamentalisms in all of their forms are the…”
Morin: Governance requiring a flow chart starts from a bad position
“I think anytime you need a flow chart to explain how your board works and is hired, you're probably starting from a bad position.”
Britt Morin: I would reinstate Sam Altman with working checks and balances
“I think I bring him back, but I create a new set of checks and balances that actually work to try to meet as many expectations as possible”
Dave Morin: OpenAI has visibly stopped investing in SearchGPT
“They've pretty visibly stopped investing in this search GPT thing.”
Rauch: Copilot gave Microsoft conviction in OpenAI after broader bets
“I was interviewing Nat Freeman today for our internal Vercel podcast today, and he was talking about how much conviction Microsoft got into OpenAI because of the effectiveness of Copilot. Like when Satya saw Copilot, when they were doing the initial iterations…”
Dave Morin: I would vote Sam Altman back into OpenAI with two-tier board
“My vote would be to put him back to vote him back in. And I would do that with the creation of a You know, if it's going to stay a non-profit or, you know, whatever, I would do a two-board structure.”
Khosla: OpenAI executes better than Google despite Google's great tech
“I think OpenAI has been very good in execution, but Google has great technology and technologies. They just haven't been as crisp about their execution.”
Lessin: An $11 billion OpenAI loss is irrelevant to Microsoft
“Eleven billion dollars is completely irrelevant to Microsoft. Right. It's a three trillion dollar company, right? Like they can spend a living billion dollars.”
Dave Morin: AI researchers treat AGI with religious deification
“The research side of the AI community has, you know, is largely a secular you know almost always talks in a deeply religious tone. They've made the, you know AI, in particular the AGI technology, into almost a sacred you know, they've almost deified this techn…”
Morin: OpenAI DevDay is most impressive platform launch since Facebook Platform
“Like this is one of, I think the most impressive developer platform launches. Since maybe Facebook platform, if I do say so myself.”
Britt Morin: Chrome gives Google an AI agent advantage over OpenAI and Apple
“And I think that, like, plays to Google's advantage in the AI race that they have Chrome. Like, OpenAI doesn't have a browser that they can install this into, and Apple's certainly not, like, ahead in this race with Safari.”
Britt Morin: OpenAI's exclusivity demand will send investors to competitors
“Like, I think it actually sends people to the competitors.”
Jessica Lessin: AI publisher licensing deals won't drive news product innovation
“The idea behind some of those deals is it will bring forth all sorts of new product innovation for news and other things, and I think it won't. I think basically these companies will be happy to pay the checks and take the checks, but that once again, a lot of…”
Lessin claims OpenAI is actively working on developing a web browser
“OpenAI is working on developing a browser”
Levie: Increased AI device activity will counteract ad inventory collapse
“And that's why I think it will counteract whatever your sort of 10 blue link shift is.”
Brit Morin: Apple and Google will win the consumer AI market
“I do buy that like anthropic or open AI might have a big play in the enterprise world, but for the consumer world of AI, those two have to be the winners.”
Dave Morin: Unprofitable OpenAI and Anthropic will be forced to increase prices
“Like at the rate they're having to raise capital and at the unprofitability of their business models, they can only increase prices from here.”
Dave Morin: OpenAI has visibly stopped investing in SearchGPT
“And, you know, they've pretty visibly stopped investing in this search GPT thing.”
Dave Morin: Mega-Cap Startups Must Offer Secondaries to Retain Top Talent
“At some point the scale of the capital stack gets so big that secondary becomes to Sam's point, the only way that people can get the piece that they want. But it also becomes, you know, the gravity for the employee base becomes so strong that you have to start…”
Brit Morin: OpenAI exclusivity demands will drive investors to competitors
“Like it, I think it actually sends People to the competitors.”