Jul 31, 2023 · 50m · more-or-less

#7: Elon's X game and RIP seed investing · More or Less Podcast

Sam Lessin · 16m spoken Jessica Lessin · 15m spoken Dave Morin · 13m spoken Brit Morin · 25s spoken Jingle Singer · 9s spoken
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In this episode of the More or Less podcast, hosts Jessica Lessin, Sam Lessin, and Dave Morin dissect Elon Musk's controversial rebranding of Twitter to X, analyze the generative AI pressures reshaping Alphabet's business model, and debate whether traditional seed-stage venture capital is dead.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.6% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

The hosts as informed peer 5.0 Guest teaching 3.3 Guest disagreement 4.0 The hosts pushing back 4.0
05100:0015:0030:0045:000:17–6:00 · The hosts as informed peer 3/10 Podcast Opening Sequence and Theme Jingle The opening segment consists of lighthearted banter, introducing the co-hosts, and discussing Sam's self-published book. Sam explains Amazon Kindle's royalty pricing quirk, while Jessica lightly teases him and frames the show agenda.6:00–18:26 · The hosts as informed peer 5/10 Twitter Rebranding to X and Brand Value Erosion Sam and Dave argue that Musk's rebrand to X is purely an engineered stunt to dominate the news cycle and that the financial losses are negligible relative to his net worth. Jessica repeatedly challenges this cynical rationalization, questioning whether Musk would willingly destroy tens of billions in equity.18:26–35:28 · The hosts as informed peer 6/10 Google's Leadership Shifts, AI Strategy, and Culture Jessica leads the discussion on Alphabet's executive reshuffle and AI positioning, citing her background covering Google for the WSJ and reporting from The Information. The discussion is analytical and collegial, with Jessica highlighting the commercial dilemma of Bard cannibalizing search ads.35:28–50:21 · The hosts as informed peer 6/10 The Venture Capital Debate: Is Seed Investing Dead? Sam aggressively pushes his thesis that the 2010s venture capital assembly line is permanently broken and seed investing is dead. Jessica presses back with counterarguments, asking whether this is just a cyclical downturn and how seed investors realistically realize liquidity under his proposed alternative.0:17–6:00 · Guest teaching 2/10 Podcast Opening Sequence and Theme Jingle The opening segment consists of lighthearted banter, introducing the co-hosts, and discussing Sam's self-published book. Sam explains Amazon Kindle's royalty pricing quirk, while Jessica lightly teases him and frames the show agenda.6:00–18:26 · Guest teaching 3/10 Twitter Rebranding to X and Brand Value Erosion Sam and Dave argue that Musk's rebrand to X is purely an engineered stunt to dominate the news cycle and that the financial losses are negligible relative to his net worth. Jessica repeatedly challenges this cynical rationalization, questioning whether Musk would willingly destroy tens of billions in equity.18:26–35:28 · Guest teaching 3/10 Google's Leadership Shifts, AI Strategy, and Culture Jessica leads the discussion on Alphabet's executive reshuffle and AI positioning, citing her background covering Google for the WSJ and reporting from The Information. The discussion is analytical and collegial, with Jessica highlighting the commercial dilemma of Bard cannibalizing search ads.35:28–50:21 · Guest teaching 5/10 The Venture Capital Debate: Is Seed Investing Dead? Sam aggressively pushes his thesis that the 2010s venture capital assembly line is permanently broken and seed investing is dead. Jessica presses back with counterarguments, asking whether this is just a cyclical downturn and how seed investors realistically realize liquidity under his proposed alternative.0:17–6:00 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Podcast Opening Sequence and Theme Jingle The opening segment consists of lighthearted banter, introducing the co-hosts, and discussing Sam's self-published book. Sam explains Amazon Kindle's royalty pricing quirk, while Jessica lightly teases him and frames the show agenda.6:00–18:26 · Guest disagreement 5/10 Twitter Rebranding to X and Brand Value Erosion Sam and Dave argue that Musk's rebrand to X is purely an engineered stunt to dominate the news cycle and that the financial losses are negligible relative to his net worth. Jessica repeatedly challenges this cynical rationalization, questioning whether Musk would willingly destroy tens of billions in equity.18:26–35:28 · Guest disagreement 3/10 Google's Leadership Shifts, AI Strategy, and Culture Jessica leads the discussion on Alphabet's executive reshuffle and AI positioning, citing her background covering Google for the WSJ and reporting from The Information. The discussion is analytical and collegial, with Jessica highlighting the commercial dilemma of Bard cannibalizing search ads.35:28–50:21 · Guest disagreement 6/10 The Venture Capital Debate: Is Seed Investing Dead? Sam aggressively pushes his thesis that the 2010s venture capital assembly line is permanently broken and seed investing is dead. Jessica presses back with counterarguments, asking whether this is just a cyclical downturn and how seed investors realistically realize liquidity under his proposed alternative.0:17–6:00 · The hosts pushing back 1/10 Podcast Opening Sequence and Theme Jingle The opening segment consists of lighthearted banter, introducing the co-hosts, and discussing Sam's self-published book. Sam explains Amazon Kindle's royalty pricing quirk, while Jessica lightly teases him and frames the show agenda.6:00–18:26 · The hosts pushing back 5/10 Twitter Rebranding to X and Brand Value Erosion Sam and Dave argue that Musk's rebrand to X is purely an engineered stunt to dominate the news cycle and that the financial losses are negligible relative to his net worth. Jessica repeatedly challenges this cynical rationalization, questioning whether Musk would willingly destroy tens of billions in equity.18:26–35:28 · The hosts pushing back 4/10 Google's Leadership Shifts, AI Strategy, and Culture Jessica leads the discussion on Alphabet's executive reshuffle and AI positioning, citing her background covering Google for the WSJ and reporting from The Information. The discussion is analytical and collegial, with Jessica highlighting the commercial dilemma of Bard cannibalizing search ads.35:28–50:21 · The hosts pushing back 6/10 The Venture Capital Debate: Is Seed Investing Dead? Sam aggressively pushes his thesis that the 2010s venture capital assembly line is permanently broken and seed investing is dead. Jessica presses back with counterarguments, asking whether this is just a cyclical downturn and how seed investors realistically realize liquidity under his proposed alternative.

speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the hosts 93.5% · guest 6.5%0:00 · the hosts 93.5% · guest 6.5%3:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%3:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%6:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%6:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%9:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%9:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%12:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%12:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%15:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%15:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%18:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%18:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%21:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%21:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%24:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%24:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%27:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%27:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%30:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%30:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%33:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%33:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%36:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%36:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%39:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%39:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%42:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%42:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%45:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%45:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%48:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%48:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 40:00 Sam dismisses conventional unicorn venture returns

Sam forcefully rejects the premise that venture-backed business models are sustainable, arguing that mid-tier profitable tech companies are structurally trapped and screwed under modern VC expectations.

Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 6:45 Jessica refuses Sam's framing of Musk's rebrand as harmless fun

Jessica directly rejects Sam's premise that Musk's moves are just harmless trolling, challenging whether any rational executive would willingly watch a 44 billion dollar investment wither for press attention.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 9:36 Dave explains the WWF heel versus face dynamic to Jessica

After Jessica asks for clarification on the framework, Dave explains how wrestling archetypes function to demonstrate that Elon Musk actively optimizes for negative public reactions.

The host holds their own ▶ 26:14 Jessica cites reporting on Google's culture and structural issues

Jessica showcases her journalistic expertise by detailing The Information's investigation into employee suicides and workplace culture at Google, challenging the idea that internal distress was identical across big tech.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe hosts as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe hosts pushing backWhy
Podcast Opening Sequence and Theme Jingle 3221 The opening segment consists of lighthearted banter, introducing the co-hosts, and discussing Sam's self-published book. Sam explains Amazon Kindle's royalty pricing quirk, while Jessica lightly teases him and frames the show agenda.
Twitter Rebranding to X and Brand Value Erosion 5355 Sam and Dave argue that Musk's rebrand to X is purely an engineered stunt to dominate the news cycle and that the financial losses are negligible relative to his net worth. Jessica repeatedly challenges this cynical rationalization, questioning whether Musk would willingly destroy tens of billions in equity.
Google's Leadership Shifts, AI Strategy, and Culture 6334 Jessica leads the discussion on Alphabet's executive reshuffle and AI positioning, citing her background covering Google for the WSJ and reporting from The Information. The discussion is analytical and collegial, with Jessica highlighting the commercial dilemma of Bard cannibalizing search ads.
The Venture Capital Debate: Is Seed Investing Dead? 6566 Sam aggressively pushes his thesis that the 2010s venture capital assembly line is permanently broken and seed investing is dead. Jessica presses back with counterarguments, asking whether this is just a cyclical downturn and how seed investors realistically realize liquidity under his proposed alternative.

Statements from this episode (13)

Assertion Partly supported
Sam Lessin: Amazon Takes a 70% Cut on Kindle E-Books Over $10
“They make it impossible to charge anything between, like, 10 and 30 dollars for a book. It's hilarious because the way it's set up is you can set it up so you get like 70% of the money up to 10 dollars, but then after that you have to get 30% of the money. So …”
Sam Lessin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 2:34
Opinion
Morin: Rebranding Twitter to X destroys significant brand value
“This is a big one, and it does destroy a lot of brand value.”
Dave Morin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 12:18
Opinion
Morin: Twitter ruined itself before selling to Elon Musk
“Twitter ruined Twitter and then sold it to Elon. And now Elon can do whatever he wants.”
Dave Morin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 12:55
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Elon Musk building Western 'everything app' via X is nearly impossible
“I think any thinking person who, especially who's worked on the internet, would take the massive under on that, right, in terms of that being the outcome. Like, I think that's extremely, nearly impossible from the position he's currently in”
Sam Lessin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 13:43
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Lessin: Sugar-dating site Seeking Arrangements is actively advertising on Twitter
“Seeking Arrangements is famous. It's awful. And it has rebranded itself Arrangements. It's still seeking arrangements, and it's advertising on Twitter.”
Sam Lessin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 17:53
Opinion
Morin: Google's Bard mobile interface is arguably the best AI search tool
“The interface is really nice. It's arguably the best AI search interface out there right now.”
Dave Morin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 24:09
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: Ruth Porat has systematically shut down Alphabet's Other Bets
“I mean, that, Ruth's track record to date has largely been pruning those. I mean, Larry created Alphabet. Because, you know, he wanted a way to retain all these great people who wanted to go off and do fun projects, like Andy Rubin, who didn't, you know, want …”
Jessica Lessin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 29:31
Opinion
Lessin: Big tech is better off cutting average nine-to-five engineers
“Most of like the line engineers and people who just kind of like, you know, show up in nine to five and crunch out small projects. They're just not that valuable and you're better off cutting them rather than doing whatever you possibly can to retain them.”
Sam Lessin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 33:10
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: Google Cloud is not gaining market share or meeting targets
“It's still nowhere, it's not gaining market share, which I don't know how much that really matters, but it and they've set all sorts of goals around that, that they're nowhere close to meeting.”
Jessica Lessin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 34:59
Assertion Contradicted
Sam Lessin: 'Adventure capitalist' term first appeared in the Communist Manifesto
“Marx goes on and on about the adventure capitalists and how the adventure capitalists. At least that's the first place historically I've ever seen. I ever saw it.”
Sam Lessin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 45:03
Opinion
Sam Lessin: The decade-long venture capital seed factory model is dead
“The version of Sea we had in the last decade is over. The capital factory is over. It's, someone will claim it back in some way, shape, or form, but it is dead.”
Sam Lessin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 48:00
Opinion
Sam Lessin: YC Demo Day is dead
“YC Demo Day is dead.”
Sam Lessin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 48:23
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI Hired a Former Microsoft Intellectual Property Lawyer
“We have information just broke a story that they hired a new IP, no, sorry, OpenAI hired a new IP lawyer who used to work in Microsoft, so go figure that one out.”
Jessica Lessin Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 50:04
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