Aug 18, 2023 · 52m · more-or-less
#10: You should kill your startup, What replaces globalization · More or Less Podcast
Sam Lessin · 17m spoken Dave Morin · 14m spoken Jessica Lessin · 11m spoken Brit Morin · 4m spoken Podcast Intro Singer · 13s spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of the More or Less podcast, hosts Jessica Lessin, Dave Morin, Brit Morin, and Sam Lessin explore the painful venture capital correction forcing startups to liquidate, the geopolitical fragmentation of global tech, and the practical limits of generative AI. Through sharp industry analysis, the panel evaluates why founders must learn when to quit and how digital sovereignty is dismantling globalization.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.8 Guest teaching 4.5 Guest disagreement 3.7 The hosts pushing back 5.2
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 24:03 Dave rejects the censorship framing
Dave adamantly pushes back on Jessica's suggestion that he is advocating for internet censorship, forcefully reframing his argument around an economic imbalance of bits rather than free speech.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 34:58 Jessica challenges digital balkanizationJessica refuses to accept Dave and Sam's proposal of sovereign digital spheres, directly arguing that dividing the internet into walled gardens harms American business opportunities.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 39:16 Dave reveals CHIPS Act fab realitiesDave educates the table with insider information from a semiconductor board member, explaining that chipmakers map fab timelines a decade out, making tens of billions in federal subsidies a drop in the bucket.
The host holds their own ▶ 42:52 Jessica counters with Sequoia China splitWhen Sam dismisses China venture restrictions as negligible, Jessica demonstrates commanding industry expertise by highlighting that Sequoia's entire partnership fractured over this exact regulatory pressure.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More or Less Podcast Opening Title Sequence | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Jessica anchors the conversation by detailing The Information's reporting on distressed tech fire sales, specifically Cadre's markdown from an $800 million valuation to roughly $100 million. The group trades light banter and nostalgic memories about previous bubble investments like on-demand security and junk deletion. | |
| The Reckoning: Killing Startups and Annie Duke's "Quit" | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | Jessica probes the panelists on what Series A success actually looks like in a high-rate environment and introduces Annie Duke's book on quitting. Sam and Dave articulate venture economics, likening startup life to an ultra-marathon where knowing when to stop is essential. | |
| Atoms vs. Bits: Tech Decoupling and Digital Trade Imbalance | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | The conversation shifts to the Biden administration's executive order on China tech investments as Dave presents his framework of a digital trade imbalance in bits versus atoms. Jessica actively challenges Dave, questioning whether his framing implies erecting an American version of the Great Firewall. | |
| The TikTok Ban Debate and Visions of Digital Citizenship | 6 | 5 | 5 | 7 | Jessica strongly challenges Sam and Dave's vision of national digital citizenship spheres, warning it would create a balkanized world of digital curtains and reduce opportunities for US companies. Dave and Sam defend their position by arguing that regionalization is already an unavoidable reality. | |
| CHIPS Act, Semiconductor Reality, and Sequoia's China Split | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | When Sam claims venture capital bans in China are meaningless PR gestures, Jessica counters authoritatively by citing the historic breakup of Sequoia Capital and the loss of its most lucrative division. Dave also brings valuable industry color from a semiconductor board member regarding CHIPS Act limitations. | |
| AI Reality Check: LLM Use Cases, Summarization, and Copyright | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Dave explains that text summarization remains the only reliable enterprise use case for large language models because constrained text output limits hallucinations. Jessica jokingly presses Sam after he reveals he spent over $1,000 on ChatGPT for data extraction and copyright laundering. |
Statements from this episode (19)
Sam Lessin: 'LLMs for things' startups will fail like on-demand apps
“Yeah, it's gonna be the same outcome”
Jessica Lessin says Cadre is selling for $100M after $800M valuation
“Jared Kushner, I think Andreessen Horowitz was going to let anyone invest in commercial, commercial real estate, eight hundred million dollar valuation, likely selling the Yieldstreet according to the information team for around 100, if that.”
Sam Lessin: Investors no longer tolerate marginally working startups
“All this stuff on the margin is just getting cut. Right. And so it's like, it either has to be really working or is dead. There's no more like, eh, it's sort of working. It's a reasonable thesis. They're good people. Let's push it along. Right. No one has tole…”
Dave Morin: Startups cannot raise Series A rounds purely on story
“It used to be that like, You could get through a series A still on story. I don't think that's the case anymore.”
Sam Lessin: Founders should shut down failing startups instead of wasting years
“The worst case scenario is you waste a decade of someone's time on something that's not going to work. Right. And so the reality is I actually think it's like rip the bandaid off. If you're on the margin, if it's not working, like it's actually kind of disinge…”
Sam Lessin: VCs accept startup failure as long as founders are honest
“It's one of the beauties of Silicon Valley and our economy as it's set up, is like, this is a no-fault zone, unless, you know, so don't lie, don't make shit up. It's either working or not, and you probably know, Right? And if it's not working, it's completely …”
Brit Morin: US Investment Bans Will Not Meaningfully Harm China
“I don't think it's actually, Going to do that much damage to China to like not invest in their companies and to like, you know, do these little things when China already is like one of the biggest trade partners to the rest of the world.”
Dave Morin: China exploits a one-way digital trade imbalance
“Our bits, as they flow out of our internet companies, literally hit a brick wall when they get to the Chinese border. And yet Chinese internet companies can, you know, develop enormously huge market caps and monopolies and technologies inside of Chinese border…”
Sam Lessin: GDPR is European protectionism against US tech
“A lot of the real story of GDPR, the real story of a lot of this stuff is, you know, Europe trying to get protectionists around, you know, internet access and the flow of bits.”
Brit Morin favors US TikTok ban over Chinese data and mental health
“I'm more, more for TikTok ban. I think that there's a lot of data and facial recognition and all kinds of technologies that China's potentially building upon without, you know, real knowledge and consent. And I also just think it's terrible for mental health”
Sam Lessin: Banning TikTok prompts European backlash against US platforms
“The problem is that I think it's a very hard argument for us to make doing that and then defending our internet platforms everywhere else, right? Because the second we do that, Europe is going to say very rightfully, do we really want the American internet pla…”
Sam Lessin: Crypto Is the Only Savior of an Open Internet
“From a first principles perspective, I think people miss how important crypto is, right? And, you know, we'll continue to is like, it is the saving potential grace to a truly open internet is crypto directionally, you know, solid identities, distributed system…”
Jessica Lessin Opposes TikTok Ban, Favoring Domestic Data Localization
“Look, I am not in favor of a flat-out TikTok ban, but I am in favor of, like, a more, like, domiciled domestic, like, data regime, right?”
Dave Morin: US CHIPS Act subsidies are a drop in the bucket
“These guys are already planned, you know, many years out in terms of their fab construction, right? To like be moving along these fab timelines, right? Like the semiconductor industry is one of the most competitive, fastest moving, absolute most execution orie…”
Dave Morin says China exports far more capital to the US
“China is a net capital exporter, right? Like, to the point here, like, you know, they send us far more capital than we send them.”
Jessica Lessin: Sequoia's China business generated the majority of firm's profits
“I think, like, the breakup of Sequoia because of this very issue, because it was untenable, This current structure, which was the majority of its profits, right? It, you know, deserves a chapter in that story, right?”
Dave Morin: Summarization is currently the only great use case for LLMs
“Summarization is the only great
Use case of LLMs currently today, because in the case of summarization, you have far less hallucination issues.”