Mar 29, 2024 · 53m · more-or-less
#40: Reddit IPO, Apple v. DOJ and the Return of the Power Lunch · More or Less Podcast
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In this episode of the More or Less podcast, hosts Jessica Lessin, Brit Morin, and Dave Morin analyze tech initial public offerings, the DOJ antitrust lawsuit against Apple, and the cultural return of in-person work. Blending financial commentary with pop culture, the trio also evaluates venture capital liquidity, celebrity business empires, and Apple TV+'s prestige programming.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.6% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.4 Guest teaching 3.9 Guest disagreement 2.6 The hosts pushing back 2.4
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 38:09 Dave rejects legitimacy of DOJ Apple antitrust lawsuit
Dave dismisses the DOJ complaint as an inherently political, baseless trial balloon, asserting that the government artificially contorted the smartphone market definition just to manufacture a monopoly claim.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 40:47 Jessica counters Dave by citing platform developer abusesJessica pushes back on Dave's complete dismissal of antitrust claims by pointing to developer fees and ecosystem lock-in as legitimate regulatory territory, drawing parallels to previous DOJ scrutiny of Google.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 31:40 Brit details unicorn founder data from Defiance CapitalBrit educates the group with definitive empirical findings showing Sequoia only backed 2.8% of unicorns and that 70% were founded by immigrants, women, or people of color.
The host holds their own ▶ 40:07 Jessica demonstrates antitrust policy expertiseJessica draws on her direct experience covering Google's 2008 search deal with Yahoo to explain how antitrust authorities analyze consumer pass-through and enforce market constraints.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welcoming Dave Morin Back and Comparing Flu Effectiveness | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | The co-hosts engage in friendly banter about Dave's bout with Influenza A. Brit demonstrates quick research expertise by citing exact published CDC vaccine efficacy rates (27% to 46% for adults), gently correcting the assumption about when data is released. | |
| Return of the Power Lunch and San Francisco's Revival | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Jessica recaps attending an inspiring women's lunch in San Francisco and champions the efficiency of power lunches. Dave and Brit validate the observation that in-person networking and energy are returning to the Bay Area. | |
| Combating Multitasking, Screen Anxiety, and Zoom Distractions | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Jessica discusses reading 'The Organized Mind' and the neurological hazards of multitasking during virtual meetings. Dave jokingly calls out Brit for wearing a 'Multitasker' sweatshirt all weekend, sparking self-deprecating reflection on executive habits. | |
| Reddit IPO Debut and Truth Social Valuation Discrepancies | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | The hosts analyze Reddit and Astera Labs' IPO debuts. Dave passionately decries Truth Social's $10 billion market valuation on $3 million in revenue as a pump-and-dump scheme compared to Reddit's legitimate half-billion in revenue. | |
| Canva's Entrepreneurial Growth and Emerging IPO Pipeline | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Jessica cites The Information's reporting on Canva's corporate enterprise revenue and ARR growth. The table admires founder Melanie Perkins' endurance through repeated rejections to scale a $26 billion powerhouse. | |
| Venture Capital Liquidity, LP Allocations, and Founder Archetypes | 7 | 6 | 2 | 3 | Dave provides macroeconomic context explaining why LPs prefer 6% yield on Treasuries over venture risk, while Brit presents hard data from Defiance Capital's unicorn study showing VC fragmentation and 70% underdog founders. | |
| Antitrust Battles, Washington Bureaucracy, and the Apple Lawsuit | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | Dave forcefully rejects the DOJ's antitrust lawsuit against Apple, dismissing it as politically motivated and lacking antitrust merit. Jessica pushes back with historical context covering Google's 2008 scrutiny, developer toll extraction, and Washington's shifting political posture. | |
| Selena Gomez's Rare Beauty and Taylor Swift's Business Future | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Brit highlights Selena Gomez's Rare Beauty achieving a $2 billion valuation and proposes Taylor Swift launch a consumer product. Dave and Jessica reject the conventional consumer goods premise, proposing Swift instead buy sports teams or integrate stadium entertainment stacks. | |
| Decoding Taylor Swift's 'The Tortured Poets Department' | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | Brit breaks down the thematic inspiration for Swift's upcoming album. Dave challenges whether any lyrics have actually surfaced yet, prompting Brit to tell him to search social media for early teaser stanzas. | |
| Analyzing Apple TV+ and the 'Dad Prestige TV' Trend | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Jessica introduces the cultural concept of 'Dad Prestige TV' dominated by Apple TV+ military and historical epics like Masters of the Air. The hosts banter amiably about viewing habits before closing the episode. |
Statements from this episode (15)
Brit Morin: Bullish on San Francisco due to AI and office returns
“And then of course, like the AI boom is Bringing a lot of people back here too, and not to mention the return to hybrid or full-time office. So we're bullish on SF.”
Morin: Shockingly difficult to convince people to meet in person
“I've actually been pushing really hard to shift as much of my schedule to in person as possible. And I'm actually shocked at how hard it is to get people to meet in person. And it's been somewhat disheartening that I haven't been able to get it to push as far …”
Lessin: Camera-off Zoom board meetings make sources easier for reporters to reach
“As a reporter, it's gotten a lot easier to get sources on the phone, especially, like, sources who are in a lot of board meetings, because their boards are just them with their camera off on Zoom.”
Brit Morin: More companies will likely attempt IPOs before summer 2024
“So I do think we're probably going to see a few more companies try to get out over the next month or two, especially before summertime.”
Dave Morin: Reddit and Truth Social have comparable market caps despite revenue disparity
“Reddit's sitting at a 9.1 billion dollar market cap today. You know, I need to go look at what the, what their revenue looks like, but I mean, their revenue is somewhere in the ballpark of half a billion dollars, right? Yeah. And meanwhile, truth social is als…”
Dave Morin: Trump Media SPAC is the most insane pump-and-dump ever
“This is like the world's most insane pump and dump of all time, like.”
Lessin: About a Quarter of Canva's $1.7B ARR Came From Enterprise Sales
“Our piece this week was also about how they're looking to like the enterprise business to about quarter of their 1.7 billion in ARR came from corporate sales last year, and they're trying to grow that”
Brit Morin: Late 2025 and 2026 Could Be Great Years for Startups
“I think, I don't think founders totally understand that cycle, but I do think that downstream effects of that, even though they'll take probably a year or two for that whole cycle to sort of play out, assuming more IPOs go well this year, it could mean that, y…”
Dave Morin: Institutional Investors Allocate Maximum 5% to 10% to Venture
“Like, I think that, you know, for the most part, big institutional investors of all scales, you know, they're allocating five percent, you know, 10%, maybe maximum of their portfolio into the venture asset class.”
Dave Morin: Investors Will Re-Allocate to Venture as Fed Cuts Rates
“Here we are, we're sitting here looking at an IPO that went well fed that's talking about lowering rates again. And so, you know, of course risk is going to move back on and people are going to actually start to think about allocating into the venture asset cl…”
Brit Morin: LPs Must Diversify Beyond Sequoia and Andreessen
“For LPs to do the work, I think is really important because even if you just continue to put your money into Sequoia and Andreessen, Like, they're not getting the lion's share sometimes of these bigger companies, and a lot of these younger firms are still perf…”
Dave Morin: DOJ's antitrust case against Apple lacks merit without narrowed market
“I don't think you can make a, I really don't think there's an antitrust case inside of this suit. I think it's very, very hard. You can't claim that I just on one simple piece of data, which is that Apple doesn't even have a monopoly position in the smartphone…”
Brit Morin: DOJ Apple suit will drag on 5-10 years and become obsolete
“I think regardless of anything, what's going to happen is that the government can't keep up with efficiency on any of this regulatory stuff. And so it just is going to take five to 10 years. And by that time, Apple will be like, everyone will have moved on fro…”