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Apr 18, 2025 · 48m · more-or-less

OpenAI’s Social Network & Figma’s Potential IPO | More or Less #95 · More or Less Podcast

Ben Lerer · 15m spoken Brit Morin · 11m spoken Dave Morin · 8m spoken Morgan Beller · 8m spoken Podcast Theme Singer · 14s spoken
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In this episode of More or Less, hosts Britt and Dave Morin are joined by venture capitalists Ben Lerer and Morgan Beller to debate OpenAI's rumored social media expansion, AI startup valuation froth, and Figma's impending IPO amidst a broken venture capital exit landscape. The panel critically examines how delayed public listings, commoditized foundational models, and capital misallocation impact founders, limited partners, and the broader technology ecosystem.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 19.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

The hosts as informed peer 4.1 Guest teaching 2.6 Guest disagreement 3.3 The hosts pushing back 2.7
05100:0015:0030:0045:000:53–3:39 · The hosts as informed peer 1/10 More or Less Title Sequence Introductory housekeeping and playful banter filling in for absent co-hosts Sam and Jessica. Dave and Britt introduce Ben Lerer and Morgan Beller with warm compliments.3:39–8:37 · The hosts as informed peer 3/10 East Coast vs West Coast Tech Ecosystems Ben playfully ribs the West Coast culture for obsessing solely over AI and space colonization at dinners, while defending New York's evolution into an established ecosystem. The hosts engage with sports banter and personal dinner anecdotes.8:37–19:20 · The hosts as informed peer 5/10 Morgan Beller on Maternity Leave and Tech Whiplash Morgan reflects on how unplugging during maternity leave revealed daily tech news whiplash, while Dave outlines why OpenAI naturally expands toward consumer features like social networking after reaching one billion users. Britt challenges Ben on whether the market wants non-ad-supported networks.19:20–28:43 · The hosts as informed peer 4/10 Debating AI Startup Multiples and Model Commoditization Morgan forcefully attacks early-stage startups claiming to be AI companies when they are merely application wrapper businesses commanding absurd 30-50x multiples. Ben concurs while emphasizing the threat posed by awake tech incumbents.28:43–33:45 · The hosts as informed peer 7/10 Figma's Anticipated IPO and the Need for Liquidity Dave displays strong historical knowledge, explaining how four-year equity vesting and fund life cycles were historically structured around rapid 1990s IPO timelines, which surprises Morgan. The group agrees that delayed IPOs harm retail investors and employee liquidity.33:45–41:48 · The hosts as informed peer 5/10 The Structural Crisis in Venture Capital Ben and Morgan dissect the dysfunction of modern VC where excessive capital damages startup discipline, comparing unchecked funding to giving cocaine to children. Dave questions practical solutions when money rains down, noting founder strategies like locking funds in treasuries.41:48–46:40 · The hosts as informed peer 4/10 Pop Culture Corner: Celebrity Spaceflight and Mars The conversation shifts to celebrity spaceflight, where Morgan dismisses the entire spectacle as irrelevant while Dave frames it as genuine physical danger. The segment concludes with speculative banter regarding one-way missions to Mars.0:53–3:39 · Guest teaching 0/10 More or Less Title Sequence Introductory housekeeping and playful banter filling in for absent co-hosts Sam and Jessica. Dave and Britt introduce Ben Lerer and Morgan Beller with warm compliments.3:39–8:37 · Guest teaching 3/10 East Coast vs West Coast Tech Ecosystems Ben playfully ribs the West Coast culture for obsessing solely over AI and space colonization at dinners, while defending New York's evolution into an established ecosystem. The hosts engage with sports banter and personal dinner anecdotes.8:37–19:20 · Guest teaching 2/10 Morgan Beller on Maternity Leave and Tech Whiplash Morgan reflects on how unplugging during maternity leave revealed daily tech news whiplash, while Dave outlines why OpenAI naturally expands toward consumer features like social networking after reaching one billion users. Britt challenges Ben on whether the market wants non-ad-supported networks.19:20–28:43 · Guest teaching 4/10 Debating AI Startup Multiples and Model Commoditization Morgan forcefully attacks early-stage startups claiming to be AI companies when they are merely application wrapper businesses commanding absurd 30-50x multiples. Ben concurs while emphasizing the threat posed by awake tech incumbents.28:43–33:45 · Guest teaching 3/10 Figma's Anticipated IPO and the Need for Liquidity Dave displays strong historical knowledge, explaining how four-year equity vesting and fund life cycles were historically structured around rapid 1990s IPO timelines, which surprises Morgan. The group agrees that delayed IPOs harm retail investors and employee liquidity.33:45–41:48 · Guest teaching 4/10 The Structural Crisis in Venture Capital Ben and Morgan dissect the dysfunction of modern VC where excessive capital damages startup discipline, comparing unchecked funding to giving cocaine to children. Dave questions practical solutions when money rains down, noting founder strategies like locking funds in treasuries.41:48–46:40 · Guest teaching 2/10 Pop Culture Corner: Celebrity Spaceflight and Mars The conversation shifts to celebrity spaceflight, where Morgan dismisses the entire spectacle as irrelevant while Dave frames it as genuine physical danger. The segment concludes with speculative banter regarding one-way missions to Mars.0:53–3:39 · Guest disagreement 1/10 More or Less Title Sequence Introductory housekeeping and playful banter filling in for absent co-hosts Sam and Jessica. Dave and Britt introduce Ben Lerer and Morgan Beller with warm compliments.3:39–8:37 · Guest disagreement 3/10 East Coast vs West Coast Tech Ecosystems Ben playfully ribs the West Coast culture for obsessing solely over AI and space colonization at dinners, while defending New York's evolution into an established ecosystem. The hosts engage with sports banter and personal dinner anecdotes.8:37–19:20 · Guest disagreement 3/10 Morgan Beller on Maternity Leave and Tech Whiplash Morgan reflects on how unplugging during maternity leave revealed daily tech news whiplash, while Dave outlines why OpenAI naturally expands toward consumer features like social networking after reaching one billion users. Britt challenges Ben on whether the market wants non-ad-supported networks.19:20–28:43 · Guest disagreement 6/10 Debating AI Startup Multiples and Model Commoditization Morgan forcefully attacks early-stage startups claiming to be AI companies when they are merely application wrapper businesses commanding absurd 30-50x multiples. Ben concurs while emphasizing the threat posed by awake tech incumbents.28:43–33:45 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Figma's Anticipated IPO and the Need for Liquidity Dave displays strong historical knowledge, explaining how four-year equity vesting and fund life cycles were historically structured around rapid 1990s IPO timelines, which surprises Morgan. The group agrees that delayed IPOs harm retail investors and employee liquidity.33:45–41:48 · Guest disagreement 5/10 The Structural Crisis in Venture Capital Ben and Morgan dissect the dysfunction of modern VC where excessive capital damages startup discipline, comparing unchecked funding to giving cocaine to children. Dave questions practical solutions when money rains down, noting founder strategies like locking funds in treasuries.41:48–46:40 · Guest disagreement 3/10 Pop Culture Corner: Celebrity Spaceflight and Mars The conversation shifts to celebrity spaceflight, where Morgan dismisses the entire spectacle as irrelevant while Dave frames it as genuine physical danger. The segment concludes with speculative banter regarding one-way missions to Mars.0:53–3:39 · The hosts pushing back 1/10 More or Less Title Sequence Introductory housekeeping and playful banter filling in for absent co-hosts Sam and Jessica. Dave and Britt introduce Ben Lerer and Morgan Beller with warm compliments.3:39–8:37 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 East Coast vs West Coast Tech Ecosystems Ben playfully ribs the West Coast culture for obsessing solely over AI and space colonization at dinners, while defending New York's evolution into an established ecosystem. The hosts engage with sports banter and personal dinner anecdotes.8:37–19:20 · The hosts pushing back 3/10 Morgan Beller on Maternity Leave and Tech Whiplash Morgan reflects on how unplugging during maternity leave revealed daily tech news whiplash, while Dave outlines why OpenAI naturally expands toward consumer features like social networking after reaching one billion users. Britt challenges Ben on whether the market wants non-ad-supported networks.19:20–28:43 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 Debating AI Startup Multiples and Model Commoditization Morgan forcefully attacks early-stage startups claiming to be AI companies when they are merely application wrapper businesses commanding absurd 30-50x multiples. Ben concurs while emphasizing the threat posed by awake tech incumbents.28:43–33:45 · The hosts pushing back 4/10 Figma's Anticipated IPO and the Need for Liquidity Dave displays strong historical knowledge, explaining how four-year equity vesting and fund life cycles were historically structured around rapid 1990s IPO timelines, which surprises Morgan. The group agrees that delayed IPOs harm retail investors and employee liquidity.33:45–41:48 · The hosts pushing back 4/10 The Structural Crisis in Venture Capital Ben and Morgan dissect the dysfunction of modern VC where excessive capital damages startup discipline, comparing unchecked funding to giving cocaine to children. Dave questions practical solutions when money rains down, noting founder strategies like locking funds in treasuries.41:48–46:40 · The hosts pushing back 3/10 Pop Culture Corner: Celebrity Spaceflight and Mars The conversation shifts to celebrity spaceflight, where Morgan dismisses the entire spectacle as irrelevant while Dave frames it as genuine physical danger. The segment concludes with speculative banter regarding one-way missions to Mars.

speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the hosts 8.2% · guest 91.8%0:00 · the hosts 8.2% · guest 91.8%3:00 · the hosts 12.2% · guest 87.8%3:00 · the hosts 12.2% · guest 87.8%6:00 · the hosts 5.6% · guest 94.4%6:00 · the hosts 5.6% · guest 94.4%9:00 · the hosts 20.4% · guest 79.6%9:00 · the hosts 20.4% · guest 79.6%12:00 · the hosts 68.9% · guest 31.1%12:00 · the hosts 68.9% · guest 31.1%15:00 · the hosts 14.1% · guest 85.9%15:00 · the hosts 14.1% · guest 85.9%18:00 · the hosts 19.5% · guest 80.5%18:00 · the hosts 19.5% · guest 80.5%21:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%21:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%24:00 · the hosts 0.7% · guest 99.3%24:00 · the hosts 0.7% · guest 99.3%27:00 · the hosts 8.9% · guest 91.1%27:00 · the hosts 8.9% · guest 91.1%30:00 · the hosts 80.3% · guest 19.7%30:00 · the hosts 80.3% · guest 19.7%33:00 · the hosts 21.1% · guest 78.9%33:00 · the hosts 21.1% · guest 78.9%36:00 · the hosts 14.5% · guest 85.5%36:00 · the hosts 14.5% · guest 85.5%39:00 · the hosts 1.7% · guest 98.3%39:00 · the hosts 1.7% · guest 98.3%42:00 · the hosts 27.7% · guest 72.3%42:00 · the hosts 27.7% · guest 72.3%45:00 · the hosts 12.6% · guest 87.4%45:00 · the hosts 12.6% · guest 87.4%48:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 0%48:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 0%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 19:37 Morgan rejects AI labeling of application wrappers

Morgan aggressively dismisses pitch decks labeling vertical SaaS or fintech tools as AI companies, explicitly swearing and rejecting bloated valuation multiples.

 Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 17:27 Britt and Ben clash on demand for social networks

Britt directly contradicts Ben's assertion that the world doesn't need another social network by pressing him on non-ad-supported networks.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 22:15 Morgan explains enterprise LLM commoditization

Morgan educates the room with real-world enterprise procurement data, revealing how an engineer at a top tech giant chose open-source Llama simply because it is free.

 The host holds their own ▶ 32:26 Dave explains structural historical roots of vesting

Dave demonstrates deep institutional knowledge by teaching Morgan that four-year vesting cycles were originally designed around 1990s four-year IPO exit horizons.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe hosts as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe hosts pushing backWhy
More or Less Title Sequence 1011 Introductory housekeeping and playful banter filling in for absent co-hosts Sam and Jessica. Dave and Britt introduce Ben Lerer and Morgan Beller with warm compliments.
East Coast vs West Coast Tech Ecosystems 3332 Ben playfully ribs the West Coast culture for obsessing solely over AI and space colonization at dinners, while defending New York's evolution into an established ecosystem. The hosts engage with sports banter and personal dinner anecdotes.
Morgan Beller on Maternity Leave and Tech Whiplash 5233 Morgan reflects on how unplugging during maternity leave revealed daily tech news whiplash, while Dave outlines why OpenAI naturally expands toward consumer features like social networking after reaching one billion users. Britt challenges Ben on whether the market wants non-ad-supported networks.
Debating AI Startup Multiples and Model Commoditization 4462 Morgan forcefully attacks early-stage startups claiming to be AI companies when they are merely application wrapper businesses commanding absurd 30-50x multiples. Ben concurs while emphasizing the threat posed by awake tech incumbents.
Figma's Anticipated IPO and the Need for Liquidity 7324 Dave displays strong historical knowledge, explaining how four-year equity vesting and fund life cycles were historically structured around rapid 1990s IPO timelines, which surprises Morgan. The group agrees that delayed IPOs harm retail investors and employee liquidity.
The Structural Crisis in Venture Capital 5454 Ben and Morgan dissect the dysfunction of modern VC where excessive capital damages startup discipline, comparing unchecked funding to giving cocaine to children. Dave questions practical solutions when money rains down, noting founder strategies like locking funds in treasuries.
Pop Culture Corner: Celebrity Spaceflight and Mars 4233 The conversation shifts to celebrity spaceflight, where Morgan dismisses the entire spectacle as irrelevant while Dave frames it as genuine physical danger. The segment concludes with speculative banter regarding one-way missions to Mars.

Statements from this episode (9)

Opinion
Ben Lerer: San Francisco leads AI infrastructure while New York leads applications
“San Francisco feels like more of an infrastructure town and New York feels like more of an application layer town very broadly.”
Ben Lerer Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 5:29
Insight
Ben Lerer: Top startups should secure seed capital from both coasts
“I would argue that anyone building a best-in-class company should probably look for representation from both New York and the Valley in their institutional seed round if they have choice.”
Ben Lerer Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 8:20
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin predicts OpenAI will launch messaging and consumer products next
“OpenAI with ChatGPT has become the consumer interface. I think they also said that they've just reached a billion users within the last Two or three weeks. And so, you know, we should expect them to behave like a billion user consumer internet company at this …”
Dave Morin Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 12:16
Insight
Ben Lerer: Startups burning tens of billions rarely deliver strong VC returns
“Companies that, that choose to or need to raise tens of or potentially hundreds of billions of dollars generally don't produce great Venture returns. And so like on the margin, I don't like the profile of companies that have to burn 20 or 30 or 40 or 50 or a h…”
Ben Lerer Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 16:40
Insight
Ben Lerer: Any successful non-ad social network eventually becomes ad-supported
“The only thing I know about a non ad supported social network is that if it really works, it becomes an ad supported social network.”
Ben Lerer Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 17:40
Opinion
Ben Lerer: Seed venture shares nothing with mega-round AI investing
“The business that we are in and the business that the funds are in that are investing at 50 or a hundred or three hundred billion dollars in OpenAI, like I have as much in common with those companies as I do with like a gas station. It just, we're not playing …”
Ben Lerer Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 18:55
Insight
Dave Morin: Four-year equity vesting originates from 1990s IPO timelines
“Four year vesting was four year vesting because that's how long it took to get a company public in the nineties.”
Dave Morin Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 32:30
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ben Lerer: Startup valuations remain high despite almost zero venture liquidity
“We are in a viciously competitive market where prices have really not come down, and in some cases gone way up, and then you have on the out, Almost no liquidity.”
Ben Lerer Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 34:08
Disclosure
Morgan Beller: A failing NFX portfolio company is sitting on $40M cash
“I have a company right now that's not doing well. And I was speaking to the founder last week and it's really not doing well at all. And they have like. Forty million dollars in the bank. And they shouldn't. Like, they don't deserve that money. They raised it,…”
Morgan Beller Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 37:01
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