Dec 20, 2024 · 1h 9m · more-or-less
#78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
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In this year-end episode of the More or Less podcast, co-hosts Jessica Lessin, Brit Morin, Dave Morin, and Sam Lessin evaluate the defining technology milestones of 2024—debating whether Google, Meta, or X deserves the title of Tech Company of the Year. The panel then forecasts major transformations for 2025, spanning artificial intelligence infrastructure, institutional cryptocurrency adoption, trade tariffs, domestic manufacturing, and collegiate sports privatization.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.9% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.1 Guest teaching 2.4 Guest disagreement 3.0 The hosts pushing back 2.9
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 50:30 Dave denies Meta is an AI leader
Dave bluntly rejects the premise that Meta is an AI leader, stating flatly that nobody uses Meta's AI products and that they lack any meaningful consumer footprint.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 39:36 Jessica challenges Google as company of the yearJessica adamantly refutes the choice of Google for company of the year, pointing out that antitrust rulings and market skepticism run directly counter to their nomination.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 28:14 Jessica corrects Sam on early venture capital historyJessica counters Sam's thesis that venture capital has always been cheap card flips by citing the historical reality that early VC was anchored in highly capital-intensive semiconductor firms.
The host holds their own ▶ 22:51 Jessica details late-stage PE and venture crossover fundingJessica leverages reporting from her newsroom to explain how non-traditional investors like Capital Group fund mega-rounds like Databricks, comparing it to historic pre-IPO deals.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 'More or Less' Podcast Animated Title Sequence | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | The episode opens with casual banter concerning Sam's Ewok hat purchase and light teasing about Temu, consumer spending, and the putting-out system. The atmosphere is relaxed and comedic rather than confrontational. | |
| College Nostalgia and Sam's Sub-3-Hour Marathon Challenge | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | The group reminisces about college economic history classes and celebrates Sam completing a sub-three-hour marathon. Sam jokes about launching a marathon challenge to peer venture capitalists. | |
| Ski Gear Shopping and Host Fashion Banter | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | After brief fashion chatter, Dave delivers an extensive overview of why 2024 was foundational for AI, highlighting advancements in software engineering, energy infrastructure, and on-device processing. | |
| 2024 AI Review: Sam Lessin on Practical Realism and Valuation Reset | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | Sam counters the breathless hype from eighteen months prior, emphasizing that AI has settled into practical, utilitarian APIs and sensible startup valuations. He describes 2024 as a welcome shift toward sobriety and pragmatism. | |
| Venture Capital 2024: Market Rationalization, Seed Pragmatism, and Mega-Rounds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Dave and Sam discuss the venture landscape, noting a bifurcated market where early-stage investing shows discipline while mega-rounds reach unprecedented levels. They highlight the impending shakeout of excessive seed funds. | |
| Redefining Venture Capital: Mega-Funds, Private Equity, and Capital Intensity | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | Jessica details her newsroom's tracking of private equity and mega-rounds, referencing Databricks and Box's historical TPG round. Sam and Dave debate whether massive growth financing should still be categorized as venture capital. | |
| Deep Tech Financing, Historical Precedents, and the True Definition of VC | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | Jessica challenges Sam's claim that early venture capital was built on cheap card flips, pointing out that foundational semiconductor investments were capital heavy. Sam and Dave counter by differentiating upfront research risk from scaling costs. | |
| 2024 Retrospective: Waymo and Autonomous Vehicle Adoption | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | The panel reflects on Waymo's rapid adoption in San Francisco, citing its twenty-two percent taxi trip share. Sam raises questions regarding unit economics and long-term capital burn under Google. | |
| 2024 Company of the Year: The Case for Google | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | Jessica forcefully pushes back against Brit and Dave selecting Google as company of the year, pointing to antitrust losses and negative public perception. Brit defends the pick by citing YouTube, Chrome distribution, and quantum computing milestones. | |
| 2024 Company of the Year: The Case for Meta | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Jessica makes the case for Meta as company of the year, pointing to a 73 percent stock rise, Ray-Ban smart glasses momentum, and navigating a presidential election without scandal. | |
| 2024 Company of the Year: The Case for Twitter (X) | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | Sam nominates Twitter/X, arguing that Musk acquired massive political and narrative influence for forty billion dollars. Brit pushes back using declining monthly active user numbers, which Sam dismisses as the wrong metric. | |
| 2024 Tech Evaluation: Meta, OpenAI, and AI Impact | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Dave directly challenges the idea that Meta is an AI leader, stating consumers do not directly use Meta AI products. Sam and Jessica push back by noting Meta monetizes AI internally via advertising and leads in open-source developer mindshare. | |
| 2025 Predictions: Sam Lessin on Crypto and Sovereign Bitcoin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Sam shares his 2025 crypto forecasts, predicting two hundred thousand dollar Bitcoin, sovereign accumulation, and a Solana ETF. Brit predicts drops in Chinese Amazon merchants due to tariffs, alongside Musk-backed AI education initiatives. | |
| 2025 Predictions: Dave Morin on Personal Apps and Manufacturing | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Dave forecasts rapid acceleration in personal software creation and American manufacturing. Jessica predicts TikTok will find a domestic operating partnership with Ellison or Musk, while predicting media publishers will see modest product returns from AI deals. | |
| 2025 Predictions: Health Breakthroughs, Food Systems, and Farm Eggs | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | Brit and Dave predict major health and pharma breakthroughs, alongside shifting public sentiment around processed food. Jessica shares a humorous domestic story about Sam's panic over grocery eggs after watching TikTok. | |
| Dave's 2025 Prediction on College Sports Privatization | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Dave details his thesis on college athletic programs shifting toward private equity backing, driven by NIL collective costs and high coaching salaries in a Wrexham-style investment model. | |
| Brainstorming Future Sports Episodes and Alternative Athletic Leagues | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | The co-hosts briefly brainstorm upcoming guests to discuss alternative athletic circuits before Jessica wraps up the year-end episode with holiday sign-offs. |
Statements from this episode (27)
Brit Morin: US will ban Chinese e-commerce companies
“Especially when Chinese companies get banned, then what are you gonna do, Sam?”
Dave Morin: Every consequential AI company is based in the US
“Every consequential company of this new technology is in the United States. We are the unequivocal leader in this.”
Dave Morin: Most programming will be done in English by late 2025
“I think a year from now you know, most programming will be done in English. And I think that's the, there's almost no question.”
Sam Lessin: Sam Altman claimed AGI was 14 months away in 2023
“I mean, I, you know, you have people like Sam Altman on stage, you know, what now, 18 months ago saying we were 14 months from AGI and all the jobs were over, right?”
Sam Lessin: AI speeds up development, but software engineering won't disappear
“I'm nowhere near as bullish as Dave that like,
All software engineering goes away, but yeah, like make some software developing and faster and cheaper. No question.”
Sam Lessin: Non-serious venture funds will fail to raise in 2025
“And I think next year, no one, if you're not a serious fund, you're not gonna raise capital.”
Dave Morin: Databricks's $60 billion mega-rounds are not venture capital
“The fact that we're even referring to this as a round. This is not venture capital.”
Jessica Lessin: Capital Group is an unannounced investor in Databricks
“And we had a piece that one of their not announced investors is Capital Group, right? Which is a huge, you know, public tech investor, also done private, but is very sort of under the radar and obviously like not a venture capital firm.”
Sam Lessin: Mega-funds like Thrive Capital are not true venture capitalists
“To the credit of Thrive, to the credit of some of these guys who have gone super huge in late, they're playing this game where the only thing I take issue with is, are they really even technology? Like, are they venture capitalists? They're not. They're capita…”
Dave Morin: True venture capital strictly means investing under $20 million
“Sam's just right. It's like people investing at under twenty million is venture capital.”
Brit Morin: Waymo holds 22 percent of SF rides, surpassing Lyft
“Now Waymo has 22% market share of all taxi journeys in San Francisco, which exceeds the human driver company, or sorry, the human driver company Lyft was the headline.”
Brit Morin: Apple will be 2025's tech company of the year
“Apple usually is the last to come in with the innovation. So I think 20, 25, my prediction is Apple is the company of the year.”
Sam Lessin: Meta has the clearest positive asymmetry on AI
“Clearest asymmetry to the positive on AI. Not even close.”
Sam Lessin: X is more culturally dominant in tech than pre-Musk
“I think from a cultural narrative perspective at the heart of Silicon Valley, not necessarily global, not necessarily the world, not necessarily like tastemaking and everything, but for like the beating heart of like tech and venture capital, it's unbelievably…”
Brit Morin: X's monthly active users and engagement declined in 2024
“I'm looking at the numbers and their monthly actives have actually declined this year as has the engagement rate.”
Dave Morin: Meta is not an AI leader and nobody uses its products
“Meta, like, you know, I think it's actually pretty hard to say that Meta is a AI leader. Nobody's using the AI products that Meta is shipping. Like, they are not used they are using AI infrastructure to deliver their advertising business.”
Dave Morin: Startup developers overwhelmingly choose OpenAI's API over Anthropic
“All the developers that, you know, are, we're looking at investing in you, you're seeing it as the API that everybody's using. People talk about using the other ones, but, you know, despite Anthropic maybe having better software engineering models or Elon buil…”
Sam Lessin: More global governments will hold Bitcoin by late 2025
“And I'd say Bitcoin will be owned by more governments globally, which I also think is net good.”
Brit Morin: One-third of all Amazon sellers are based in China
“Do you know a third of Amazon sellers are Chinese?”
Brit Morin: Elon Musk's STEM university will launch by late 2025
“And so I do think like, This will get off the ground by the end of the next year.”
Dave Morin: 2025 will dramatically accelerate the era of personal apps
“I think that the era of personal apps is going to dramatically accelerate. I think you're going to see almost everyone, you know, will start to experiment with building their own software using these tools. And I think people will be shocked at what they can b…”
Jessica Lessin: TikTok will partner with Larry Ellison or Elon Musk
“Tick tock will operate in some form in the U S in a partnership. Either with Larry Ellison or Elon Musk. It's my prediction.”
Jessica Lessin: AI publisher licensing deals won't drive news product innovation
“The idea behind some of those deals is it will bring forth all sorts of new product innovation for news and other things, and I think it won't. I think basically these companies will be happy to pay the checks and take the checks, but that once again, a lot of…”