Oct 10, 2025 · 58m · more-or-less
Oracle's GPU Margins, OpenAI’s Consumer Playbook, and the Ads vs Commerce Endgame · More or Less Podcast
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In this episode of More or Less, co-hosts Jessica Lessin, Dave Morin, Brit Morin, and Sam Lessin critically assess the ballooning capital expenditures and debt financing behind AI data centers, debate sustainable monetization models versus algorithmic advertising, and analyze evolving social rituals within Silicon Valley.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.9% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.0 Guest teaching 4.3 Guest disagreement 4.0 The hosts pushing back 3.8
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 8:46 Sam Forcefully Rejects Adverse Selection Critique
Sam bluntly rejects Dave's premise that founders enrolling in etiquette school suffer from adverse selection, asserting that self-aware founders seeking tactical refinement are exactly who he wants to fund.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 33:36 Jessica Defends Off-Balance-Sheet Structured FinanceJessica challenges Dave's depiction of off-balance-sheet data center financing as inherently shady shenanigans, noting these structures are long-established, legitimate tools across traditional capital-intensive sectors.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 23:14 Dave Details the AI Apollo Program Spending PaceDave educates the table with macro capex figures, highlighting that the Magnificent Seven are on track to expend an entire inflation-adjusted Apollo program every ten months.
The host holds their own ▶ 17:47 Jessica Breaks Down Oracle's GPU Margin RealityJessica brings authoritative reporting from The Information on Oracle's low GPU rental margins, contrasting raw revenue with true operational profitability and citing industry perspectives from Bret Taylor.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Title Sequence: More or Less | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | The co-hosts engage in light banter about SF Tech Week, Sam's etiquette school, and company launches. The conversation is collaborative and playful with minimal friction. | |
| The Resurgence of Demo Days and VC Seed Strategy | 7 | 5 | 3 | 4 | The hosts analyze the wave of new VC demo days and pre-seed programs. Sam explains that the current boom reflects VC strategies gestating over the past two years to acquire cheap early-stage equity. | |
| Etiquette School, Tech Manners, and AI Interactions | 5 | 4 | 7 | 6 | Dave challenges Sam's etiquette venture by suggesting an adverse selection problem with participating founders. Sam sharply disagrees, arguing that humility and self-awareness are winning founder attributes. | |
| Google Zeitgeist Insights and the 'No Swag' Power Move | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Jessica recaps her experience at Google Zeitgeist, highlighting high-production video retrospectives and the conference power move of offering zero swag. The group is entirely harmonious. | |
| Oracle's GPU Margins and the Trillion-Dollar Capex Surge | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | Jessica cites reporting by The Information regarding Oracle's thin GPU rental margins. The group debates hardware depreciation, sovereign capex, and whether massive model investments resemble financial religion. | |
| The AI Data Center Bubble and Capital Crowding | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | Sam compares the AI data center surge to the Chinese real estate bubble, noting data centers are keeping US GDP afloat. Dave adds that concentrating capital in AI raises the cost of capital for domestic manufacturing. | |
| Structured Finance and the GDP 'Number Go Up' Coalition | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | Dave and Sam examine tech companies utilizing off-balance-sheet debt and SPVs, while Jessica pushes back on framing standard financial engineering as shady shenanigans. The discussion features active intellectual debate. | |
| Monetizing AI: Ads, Agentic Commerce, and Newsfeeds | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | The panel debates monetization paths for consumer AI, contrasting chatbot advertising with agentic commerce. Sam contends advertising is fundamentally the same business as commerce, while Dave doubts autonomous purchasing agents. | |
| Targeted Advertising: Sam's Watches and Jessica's Argyle Sweater | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Sam and Jessica share personal anecdotes about falling prey to repetitive algorithmic targeting on Instagram for watches and sweaters. The hosts analyze the mechanics of retargeting and high product return rates. | |
| Pop Culture Corner: The Restoration Hardware Scandal | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | Sam introduces internet conspiracy theories concerning Restoration Hardware's corporate jet, followed by a discussion of Taylor Swift's cultural reception and Google search promotions. Dave and Sam compare it to historical MySpace and Facebook monetization. | |
| Bari Weiss, The Free Press, and CBS News | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | Jessica assesses David Ellison's acquisition of The Free Press and Bari Weiss taking over CBS News, challenging the double standard in press coverage of female editorial leadership. Sam quips about low network viewership, prompting pushback from Jessica. |
Statements from this episode (25)
Sam Lessin: Jelly reached a $110 million valuation
“Jelly, jelly, jelly, jelly. We're back at a one ten million dollar valuation last week.”
Morin: Accelerator Demo Day Deals Are Already Done in Advance
“The main thing though, perhaps the more interesting inside story that we keep hearing is that all of the deals are done before demo day. So demo day is just a social party that doesn't matter anymore.”
Lessin: VC Accelerators Exist to Hedge High Valuations With Cheap Seed Deals
“I think there's a real reason, which is what happens if you, every, these take like a year or two years to gestate as ideas. So two years ago, all these venture firms sitting around watching valuations go bananas, and like, this sucks, I don't want to pay thes…”
Lessin Wants to Open Etiquette Schools at Every Legitimate Incubator
“My goal is to have an etiquette school for every legitimate incubator sooner than later.”
Sam Lessin: The most investable founders are the most improved, not polished
“I actually don't think you want to go with the person who has the best etiquette. I think the most interesting people are the most improved, right? Like you want the person who comes in with terrible etiquette, but takes it seriously and comes out with great e…”
Sam Lessin: LLMs produce better work when threatened
“I only, like, honestly, I threaten them because they do better work with threats.”
Lessin: Giving out no swag is the ultimate conference power move
“And so now the ultimate power move is no swag.”
Dave Morin: Hyperscalers are moving all data center spend off-balance sheet
“Good timing as all of these hyperscalers are moving all of the data center spend off of their balance sheets.”
Lessin: The Information reported weak margins on Oracle GPU rentals
“We reported on Oracle some of their numbers around renting out GPUs and the margins don't look great.”
Lessin: AI data center hardware won't depreciate as fast as expected
“I think it probably won't depreciate as fast as people think.”
Morin: AI capex equals an Apollo program every 10 months
“We're on track right now to spend an Apollo program every 10 months in AI.”
Morin: Top hyperscalers projected to spend $400B this year
“And the Meg seven, not Apple, but the rest of them met a Google, Amazon, et cetera, are projected to spend about four hundred billion this year.”
Sam Lessin: US AI data center boom mirrors China's housing bubble
“This is our, from my perspective, the cynical take, which I think there's some validity to, is really what we're doing is the exact equivalent of the Chinese housing bubble, just our version of it, right? Which is like the Chinese needed to keep their economy …”
Dave Morin: Data center spending accounted for half of 2025 US GDP growth
“Like in the first half of this year, Data center related spending. Which, like you said, they're like these giant buildings full of GPUs accounted for half of GDP growth in twenty-twenty-five.”
Dave Morin: Seed startups without AI struggle to raise funding
“I mean, we're all seeing this at the seed stage, right? Like it's a tale of two cities. Like it's very hard to get anything funded. That's not got AI in one of its slides.”
Sam Lessin: Capital invested in AI infrastructure will struggle to see long-term returns
“If the markets are ultimately rational, it's very hard to see how capital gets rewarded on this long term.”
Dave Morin: Apple spends 10-20% of income on CapEx versus 50%+ for peers
“Apple spending something like 10 to 20% of income on this capex. Everyone else is like well north of 50.”
Dave Morin: Advertising in chatbots is the only hope for AI monetization
“It's really the only hope, actually. Ads, ads in the chatbots is like the only hope.”
Lessin: Advertising and Commerce Are the Same Business, but Ads Pay More
“Ads and commerce is the same business. Ads is a more profitable version of it.”
Lessin: Sam Altman cited Instagram ads as a tolerable advertising experience
“Altman recently on a podcast referenced Instagram ads as maybe a not horrible advertising experience.”
Sam Lessin: Sheer ad frequency drives consumer purchases over precise targeting
“And it just turns out that forget targeting, you just show someone the same shit a thousand times and eventually they'll buy it.”
Dave Morin: Facebook Knew It Beat MySpace When MySpace Sold Homepage Takeovers
“When we were building Facebook in the 2000, we knew we had beaten MySpace when they started selling the homepage to the Hulk movie, and the Hulk started, the Hulk, like, punched through the MySpace homepage.”
Sam Lessin: Facebook Sold Logged-Out Homepage Ads Pre-IPO to Boost Revenue
“I remember the era right, right before going public when Facebook was selling a logged out page to try to make money, so I don't want to be too high and mighty about that, but yes.”
Lessin: Paramount bought The Free Press for $150M, naming Weiss CBS editor-in-chief
“Paramount, run by David Ellison, has bought the Free Press, a relatively new sort of opinion news magazine run by Barry Weiss for a hundred and fifty million dollars. And she is now the editor-in-chief of CBS News.”