Dec 19, 2025 · 56m · more-or-less
Hype vs Reality: Our 2026 Predictions for Tech, Media, and Culture · More or Less Podcast
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
The co-hosts of the More or Less podcast score their tech, business, and cultural predictions from 2025 before sharing their comprehensive, forward-looking forecasts and personal wishes for 2026 across artificial intelligence, financial markets, media disruption, and societal trends.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 4.8 Guest teaching 2.8 Guest disagreement 2.7 The hosts pushing back 3.2
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 38:50 Sam aggressively rejects Dave's dismissal of Reality Labs costs
When Dave asserts that Meta's Reality Labs expenditure is negligible, Sam forcefully pushes back, calling it a fortune and mockingly comparing Dave's perspective to viewing ten billion dollars as chump change.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 16:53 Jessica rejects Brit's loose definition of an Apple comebackJessica immediately halts Brit's speculative prediction about Apple, firmly insisting that spending capital on acquisitions does not constitute a comeback and demanding precise definitions of success.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 6:24 Brit schools the room with Amazon seller demographic dataBrit counters the group's assumptions about domestic manufacturing growth by citing exact commerce figures showing Chinese seller representation actually grew from 50% to 57%.
The host holds their own ▶ 48:57 Jessica defends enterprise software resilience against AI UI hypeJessica leverages deep enterprise software knowledge to challenge Dave's thesis that dynamic AI UIs will wipe out SaaS, explaining that regulatory compliance, storage, and deterministic data requirements keep traditional platforms essential.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Host Welcome, Note-Taking Styles, and Holiday Cards | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | The episode opens with casual personal banter regarding note-taking styles, holiday scratch-off cards, and Sam sending out books to his holiday mailing list. There is no substantive technical debate or rigorous pushback. | |
| Scoring 2025 Predictions for Sam Lessin | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Brit reviews Sam's and her own 2025 predictions, presenting hard data that Chinese sellers on Amazon increased from 50% to 57% despite tariff expectations. Jessica pushes back lightly on whether tariffs or regulation ever had a chance of working effectively. | |
| Scoring 2025 Predictions for Dave Morin and Jessica Lessin | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Dave defends his prediction regarding personal software development, prompting Sam to challenge whether personal apps actually materialized beyond niche developer circles. Dave educates the room on warehouse logistics by explaining his investment in Mitra and 3D material flow. | |
| 2025 Year in Review: AI Slop, CapEx, and Tech Shifts | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | The co-hosts reflect on 2025 themes including AI slop, debt-funded CapEx, and Amazon's reported ten billion dollar investment in OpenAI. Jessica contextualizes the deal as chip diplomacy for Trainium, while Sam dismissively argues that ten billion is chump change for Big Tech. | |
| 2026 Predictions from Brit Morin on Tech and Media | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Brit lays out her 2026 predictions including an Apple AI comeback, ambient audio summarizers, and celebrity AI talent licensing. Jessica immediately pushes back on Brit's premise, demanding clear criteria for what defines an acquisition or hit product as a true comeback. | |
| 2026 Predictions from Jessica Lessin on AI and Markets | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Jessica outlines her 2026 predictions regarding creator Emmys, Valley layoffs under CapEx scrutiny, mega-cap AI IPOs, and regulatory headwinds facing Polymarket and Kalshi. She demonstrates strong domain knowledge by breaking down downstream liquidity impacts and model distillation. | |
| 2026 Predictions from Dave Morin on Culture and Gaming | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Dave predicts a resurgence in real-world third spaces driven by digital fatigue, alongside games-first IP development and mounting regulatory pressure on Roblox. The discussion remains largely collaborative as Jessica and Brit validate the trends with personal observations. | |
| 2026 Predictions from Sam Lessin on Stocks and Crypto | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | Sam presents contrarian market predictions, forecasting an Nvidia decline due to TPU alternatives and Meta hitting all-time highs powered by automated ad tech. Dave sharply pushes back on Sam's claim that Meta can easily cut Reality Labs, sparking a contentious exchange over whether the division's budget is negligible. | |
| BuzzFeed Bankruptcy Predictions and Media Outlook | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Sam predicts BuzzFeed will finally file for bankruptcy, which Jessica flatly refutes by citing her own acquisition inquiries where she declined. The hosts also debate whether state tax interests will compel regulatory action against sports betting on prediction markets. | |
| Media Editor Shakeups and AI Impact on Journalism | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | Jessica predicts major editorial leadership shifts and AI-driven journalistic layoffs, leading into a debate on AI-generated local news. Sam cynically argues that news does not need to be factual so long as it is entertaining, prompting pushback from Dave and Jessica on the societal ROI of truth. | |
| AI as the New UI and SaaS Model Disruption | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | Dave articulates his thesis that AI is the new UI, forecasting that vibe coding and dynamic interface generation will disrupt traditional per-seat SaaS models. Jessica counters with enterprise realities, arguing that data security, governance, and deterministic accuracy insulate incumbent software. | |
| Mainstream AI Porn and Virtual Try-On Applications | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Sam predicts NSFW AI content will enter the mainstream, prompting Brit to detail her tests with Google Doppel's virtual wardrobe try-ons. Brit also predicts GLP-1 adoption will double to 33% alongside milestone life events for Taylor Swift, met with humorous banter. | |
| Co-Hosts' Tech Industry Wishes for 2026 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | The episode wraps with the co-hosts sharing their personal hopes for the tech sector in 2026, touching on venture capital distributions, children's mental health, and banning cell phones in schools. The atmosphere is warm, collaborative, and conversational. |
Statements from this episode (36)
Jessica Lessin: Bitcoin Reached a 2025 Year-to-Date High of $123,000
“It went to one 23. Year to date, it went to one 23.”
Brit Morin: Chinese sellers grew to 57% of Amazon's active global base
“Last year, Chinese sellers represented 50% of active sellers on Amazon globally. This year, Chinese sellers represent 57% of Amazon sellers globally.”
Dave Morin: Google was the most dramatic mover in AI execution
“Not just sentiment, also an execution. I mean, if you just look at the usage of Gemini year over year, one year later, I mean, they were the most dramatic mover.”
Lessin: The Information broke that Amazon may invest $10B in OpenAI
“Did you guys see, by the way, the information breaking this week that Amazon is in talks to invest ten billion dollars in OpenAI?”
Dave Morin: Anthropic's focus on software engineering was a huge breakthrough
“Their choice to focus on software engineering was a huge breakthrough.”
Jessica Lessin: Blue Owl is pulling out of a major Oracle project
“Blue Owl is pulling out of a big Oracle project.”
Dave Morin: Texas rains delayed data center projects by a quarter or more
“There were Ridiculous amount of Texas rains this year, and so that put back, like, a ton of these data center projects by, like, almost a quarter or more, because they literally just couldn't build them.”
Brit Morin predicts Apple will acquire a major AI company like Anthropic
“Speaking of Apple, I think they come back next year, both in the AI realm, like they're going to make either one big acquisition, like an topic.”
Brit Morin: Apple will launch a sleeper hit hardware product in 2026
“That they will have one new HIT product next year. And I don't know if it's gonna be for the home, or something in the AR space, or something else, but I think there's a sleeper product that's gonna happen next year.”
Brit Morin: Ambient AI wearables will summarize daily life by late 2026
“I think all four of us by this time next year are going to have a thing on us that is listening and summarizing our days. For us. Like whether it's a ring or a necklace or something, or the, like, I think we will all have them at this point next year, and we w…”
Brit Morin: Users will adopt a unified cross-platform AI agent in 2026
“And similarly, I think each of us is going to have like one primary agent That's not just like your open chat GPT. It's connected into more than one platform. So into like Amazon and GPT and your health data and something that is your primary agent. That start…”
Brit Morin predicts an A-list artist will license their likeness to AI
“And then I also think there's gonna be one major AI talent deal with one major artist. This year we saw like Matthew McConaughey and some like sort of VC list artists, but I think there's gonna be like someone really big A-lister, whether it's like Beyonce or …”
Lessin: A YouTube creator will win an Emmy Award
“The Emmys, it's technically possible, but I know a lot of YouTube creators that are launching campaigns and I bet one of them is successful.”
Jessica Lessin predicts massive corporate layoffs across Silicon Valley in 2026
“I think they're gonna be massive layoffs across Silicon Valley.”
Jessica Lessin predicts SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs by 2027
“I think I've said this here by, you know, end of next year. Beginning of the next, real chance of SpaceX IPO, OpenAI IPO, Anthropic IPO.”
Lessin: Kalshi and Polymarket will be heavily hamstrung by regulation
“I think the prediction markets are gonna really be hamstrung by regulation and face really tough years next year, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket.”
Lessin: A major tech model developer will switch to Google's Gemini
“I, and then I guess I think one major company That is currently in the race to develop their own AI models will be using Gemini.”
Morin: Aggressive explosion in physical third-space culture coming in 2026
“I think that in combination with how tired people are getting of the internet and of just kind of digital culture rotting their brains, I think we're going to see an even more sort of aggressive explosion in third space culture.”
Morin: IP holders will adopt games-first launch strategies in 2026
“I think you're going to see people start to go even more games first with their launch strategies. I think this thing that happened with Daft Punk this year on Fortnite is actually the harbinger of much more of this going forward. I think you're going to see I…”
Morin: Roblox is causing enormous damage to children worldwide
“Roblox, which I think is actually continuing to do enormous damage to children worldwide.”
Morin: Video games are the most influential social media ever created
“These are actually the most sophisticated and most influential form of social media ever created.”
Sam Lessin predicts exactly one $500 billion-plus IPO will occur in 2026
“There will be one, but only one, five hundred billion dollar plus IPO.”
Lessin: The AI ad boom will turn on big time and accrue to Meta
“I think the ads, AI ad story is going to turn on big time this upcoming year. Huge time. I'm seeing all these startups in the space doing like insane revenue growth. And like, I just think that ultimately all accrues back to Meta.”
Jessica Lessin says she declined multiple offers to buy BuzzFeed
“I've been asked, and I said no every time.”
Lessin: States will not let prediction markets forgo sports betting tax revenue
“They're just not gonna sit here and say the billion dollars that we get in tax revenue on sports betting, we're just happy to give that up. Like, they're not.”
Lessin predicts hundreds of journalists will lose their jobs to AI
“I think like hundreds of journalists are going to lose their jobs to AI.”
Morin suggests local journalism may revitalize thanks to AI
“The one area where I think that's interesting, Jess, is that maybe local journalism will rise again, thanks to AI.”
Dave Morin predicts AI-generated UIs will threaten traditional SaaS business models
“And I think we're sort of rapidly moving towards a world where the UI, which largely was the entire business model of SAS for the last 10 years, most of SAS was like, I'm going to build this complex UX on top of a Postgres database, then I'm going to sell it t…”
Sam Lessin predicts 2026 will be the year of mainstream AI porn
“I will say on the spirit of AI impacts, I think this upcoming year is going to be the year of like AI porn.”
Brit Morin predicts adult GLP-1 adoption will reach 33% by 2026
“By next year, I think it's almost double. I think it's at least one in three, like, 33%.”