China

35 statements across 23 episodes · 3 bullish · 20 bearish · 5 people on the record · first statement Aug 4, 2023 by Dave Morin · across every show →

Everything said about China, oldest first

Aug 4, 2023 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Morin: Live shopping has never really taken off in the US
“Yeah, it's always been the case in China, but it's never really taken off here.”
Dave Morin Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 39:05 #8: Where's the Barbie business pop? Why brands beat marketplaces · More or Less Podcast
Aug 18, 2023 negative
Insight
Dave Morin: China exploits a one-way digital trade imbalance
“Our bits, as they flow out of our internet companies, literally hit a brick wall when they get to the Chinese border. And yet Chinese internet companies can, you know, develop enormously huge market caps and monopolies and technologies inside of Chinese border…”
Dave Morin Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 22:21 #10: You should kill your startup, What replaces globalization · More or Less Podcast
Aug 18, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brit Morin: US Investment Bans Will Not Meaningfully Harm China
“I don't think it's actually, Going to do that much damage to China to like not invest in their companies and to like, you know, do these little things when China already is like one of the biggest trade partners to the rest of the world.”
Brit Morin Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 21:07 #10: You should kill your startup, What replaces globalization · More or Less Podcast
Aug 18, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: Sequoia's China business generated the majority of firm's profits
“I think, like, the breakup of Sequoia because of this very issue, because it was untenable, This current structure, which was the majority of its profits, right? It, you know, deserves a chapter in that story, right?”
Jessica Lessin Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 43:10 #10: You should kill your startup, What replaces globalization · More or Less Podcast
Aug 18, 2023 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Dave Morin says China exports far more capital to the US
“China is a net capital exporter, right? Like, to the point here, like, you know, they send us far more capital than we send them.”
Dave Morin Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 42:58 #10: You should kill your startup, What replaces globalization · More or Less Podcast
Aug 18, 2023 negative
Opinion
Brit Morin favors US TikTok ban over Chinese data and mental health
“I'm more, more for TikTok ban. I think that there's a lot of data and facial recognition and all kinds of technologies that China's potentially building upon without, you know, real knowledge and consent. And I also just think it's terrible for mental health”
Brit Morin Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 28:14 #10: You should kill your startup, What replaces globalization · More or Less Podcast
Sep 1, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: A research list showed the world's top three largest LLMs are Chinese
“Like I saw a list, somebody I won't say who, but showed me a research list That had every single large language model in the world on it, and the number of parameters, and like the top three are all Chinese.”
Dave Morin Sep 1, 2023 ▶ 43:15 #12: Inside the VC brain · More or Less Podcast
Sep 15, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: Most hardware startups die with unsold inventory on pallets
“Like most hardware companies actually die with a bunch of stuff on pallets still in China or Vietnam or wherever they're being assembled.”
Dave Morin Sep 15, 2023 ▶ 31:13 #14: The Apple Episode (Carbon Neutralish) · More or Less Podcast
Dec 1, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: China will weaponize TikTok algorithmically if it invades Taiwan
“But the second they want to go invade Taiwan, which they've said they want to do, you better believe that they will use their for-profit company, right, with, given their ulterior motives at a higher level, right, to soften the beaches by using AI to just kind…”
Sam Lessin Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 7:58 #25: TikTok, Porn and The Immediate Risks of AI · More or Less Podcast
Dec 1, 2023 neutral
Prediction Held up
Lessin: Apple will not remove TikTok due to China exposure
“Apple's not gonna kick them out. Apple's China exposure is enormous, right? Like, you know, even if they should, they won't, right?”
Sam Lessin Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 12:37 #25: TikTok, Porn and The Immediate Risks of AI · More or Less Podcast
Mar 8, 2024 negative
Opinion
Morin: China has laid groundwork via TikTok to sway US youth on Taiwan
“And so Sam's analogy earlier that like if China decides to invade Taiwan and they want the American youth on their side, they've already laid the groundwork. Like we've seen it time and time again.”
Dave Morin Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 23:21 #37: TikTok's Latest Crisis, Elon's Emails, AI Monopolies · More or Less Podcast
Mar 15, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin says China limits youth screen time and mandates STEM algorithms
“They've actually banned TikTok usage longer than a certain number of minutes per day. They've also Banned the algorithm. They've like changed the algorithms that only pumps, you know, science and engineering and STEM related content to their kids. And yet they…”
Dave Morin Mar 15, 2024 ▶ 16:58 #38: Hartz and Minds and TikTok w/ Special Guest Julia Hartz · More or Less Podcast
Mar 15, 2024 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Jessica Lessin says China will block a TikTok sale under algorithm export rules
“They won't let them. It will be in violation of their rules against exporting algorithms.”
Jessica Lessin Mar 15, 2024 ▶ 13:21 #38: Hartz and Minds and TikTok w/ Special Guest Julia Hartz · More or Less Podcast
Sep 27, 2024 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Japan has produced zero global internet companies
“The internet is dominated by America and China, not by, there's no global Japanese internet companies. Zero.”
Sam Lessin Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 50:10 #66: Meta Connect, the Hardware Renaissance (or Not?) and Special Guest Dan Feder · More or Less Podcast
Dec 13, 2024 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Morin: US-China Digital Trade Has Been Completely One-Sided for 30 Years
“We cannot export Digital into China at all, right? Like our bits do not flow through their firewall. Like, you know, most of our companies cannot operate there and the inverse is not true, right? Like you bite dance, you name it. Like all of the Chinese compan…”
Dave Morin Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 41:08 #77: Sora Reveal, Google's AI Agents and Digital Trade Under Trump · More or Less Podcast
Dec 20, 2024 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Brit Morin: One-third of all Amazon sellers are based in China
“Do you know a third of Amazon sellers are Chinese?”
Brit Morin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 54:45 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Jan 17, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Jessica Lessin: Musk backed Trump primarily to gain bargaining chips with China
“Elon needs bargaining chips with China. In fact, probably his whole move towards Trump you know, in addition to getting his space regulation and all that kind of stuff, was to get more bargaining chips with China.”
Jessica Lessin Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 25:59 #82: TikTok, Trade Wars & Tech 2.0 · More or Less Podcast
Jan 17, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: Inability to sell Full Self-Driving in China is crushing Tesla
“He can't sell full self-driving in China, and it's crushing Tesla compared to the local market, and of course he's so dependent on other things.”
Jessica Lessin Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 24:03 #82: TikTok, Trade Wars & Tech 2.0 · More or Less Podcast
Jan 31, 2025 negative
Opinion
Morin: China proved it can damage the US economy with a press release
“So China's been proven to be able to release the exact right press release that can, you know, damage the world, damage the American economy.”
Dave Morin Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 18:48 #84: China's DeepSeek Shakes the Tech World · More or Less Podcast
Mar 28, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Jessica Lessin: Elon Musk backed Trump partly over Tesla's struggles in China
“If we unwind the clock and ask ourselves why Elon Musk decided to endorse and help elect Donald Trump, I actually think the fate of Tesla in China was a not insignificant part of the equation, and what was happening at the time was the Chinese government hadn'…”
Jessica Lessin Mar 28, 2025 ▶ 31:05 The Signal Scandal & DOGE Drama! (with Ben Smith and Nicholas Carlson) | More or Less #92 · More or Less Podcast
Apr 4, 2025 negative
Prediction Partly held up
Dave Morin: China will retain control of TikTok's algorithm despite divestment
“There's one little detail in there, which is that here we are at the very end of this very long, very arduous news story, and China will still retain control of the algorithm, right? Like, so they did win the war of attrition at the end of the day. Like, it so…”
Dave Morin Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 13:49 Can Tesla Survive? | More or Less #93 · More or Less Podcast
Apr 11, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coles warns cheap Chinese AI will dominate globally and expose data
“What I'm hearing is the great anxiety around the Chinese just coming in over the top of Americans with a much cheaper version of AI that, that countries around the world will end up using and China will have direct access to all their information.”
Joanna Coles Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 23:38 Why Elon Musk May Be Pulling Back from Washington (with Joanna Coles) | More or Less #94 · More or Less Podcast
Jul 4, 2025 positive
Opinion
Jessica Lessin: Top AI researchers educated in China are treated like rock stars
“I mean, I think, like, many of these researchers were educated in China, and I think they are complete rock stars in China.”
Jessica Lessin Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 44:35 #106: AI Researchers Earning More Than Cristiano Ronaldo · More or Less Podcast
Nov 28, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin predicts neither the US nor China will win the AI race
“It's also completely true that the U.S. And China are, one is not gonna best the other in this war. I just don't, I, there's just no doubt.”
Jessica Lessin Nov 28, 2025 ▶ 14:09 OpenAI vs Google vs Meta: Business Model War · More or Less Podcast
Jan 9, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: US permitted Nvidia H200 China sales with government cut
“The H 200, Trump allowed it to be sold to China, but there's this big question of will Chinese companies buy it? He, of course, is gonna, the US government is gonna take a percentage of the sales.”
Jessica Lessin Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 6:12 Founders Beware: Illiquid Valuations vs. Real‑World Taxes · More or Less Podcast
Jan 9, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Lessin: China Instructed Tech Industry Not to Buy Nvidia H200 Chips
“Overnight breaking from the information China has said to its tech industry, no H 200. You may not buy H 200.”
Jessica Lessin Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 6:39 Founders Beware: Illiquid Valuations vs. Real‑World Taxes · More or Less Podcast
Mar 6, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Morin: China will produce cheaper energy than the US across all metrics
“They're going to have access to lower cost energy. Like there there's like under no metric, whether it's number of solar panels, number of nuclear power plants, like they are going to have the cheaper energy based on how things are going right now.”
Dave Morin Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 47:06 Fire Sam Altman, The End of Software Engineers, and Why AI Is All Narrative · More or Less Podcast
Mar 6, 2026
Assertion Contradicted
Morin: China builds nuclear plants in nine months versus six US years
“They can put up a nuclear plant and like something like, what is it? Like nine months. It takes us six years.”
Dave Morin Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 46:58 Fire Sam Altman, The End of Software Engineers, and Why AI Is All Narrative · More or Less Podcast
Apr 24, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: Tim Cook Will Still Direct Apple's China Strategy
“I think it will still be very much a cook call, you know, how they're deciding, what are they doing with their manufacturing? What are they doing with their China business”
Jessica Lessin Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 19:51 What Tim Cook’s “Executive Chairman” Move Really Means | Musk vs OpenAI, xAI and Cursor Rumors
May 1, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin reports Meta's Manus acquisition was unwound after Chinese government intervention
“And of course they interfered and they did quick soon after in terms of sort of challenging the deal, calling back some of the key team to China. So they were in clear integration limbo, and now the deal is off, and they're sort of unwinding it, but.”
Jessica Lessin May 1, 2026 ▶ 36:43 Elon Musk vs OpenAI Trial, Google Cloud Surge, Meta’s Blocked Acquisition, Anthropic Winning · More or Less Podcast
May 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Forensic experts proved China is funding opposition to Utah data center
“And then he hired forensic experts to go and factually prove that it is China actually funding all of this opposition in Utah. And he actually mapped it a lot. You can go look on his Twitter and Instagram and he shares all of the data. And apparently has now s…”
Dave Morin May 29, 2026 ▶ 14:12 Normal People Don't Want AI Agents (And Silicon Valley Can't Accept It) · More or Less Podcast
Jul 31, 2026 negative
Opinion
Lessin: AI Slowdown Letters Are Emotional Theater That Should Be Ignored
“There are plenty of people running on China who can do the same shit, right, and so I just think it's all a bunch of theater of, like, people trying to wrestle with the fact they're probably really overworked and really stressed out and don't know if their sto…”
Sam Lessin Jul 31, 2026 ▶ 50:55 The Lilian Weng Saga, Mental Health Essay Then OpenAI | Meta's AI Ad, China Cracks DUV
Jul 31, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: China Will Figure Out Semiconductor Lithography
“It seems like completely obvious to me that like lithography, they're going to figure out and they're figuring it out.”
Jessica Lessin Jul 31, 2026 ▶ 31:17 The Lilian Weng Saga, Mental Health Essay Then OpenAI | Meta's AI Ad, China Cracks DUV
Jul 31, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Tech Execs Privately Reject the US-China AI War Narrative
“In Washington tech execs go to Washington to say, we have to be trying to an AI at all costs privately, or even semi privately. The exact same people say, obviously the U S and China are going to both be leaders at AI. They sort of reject that the war narrativ…”
Jessica Lessin Jul 31, 2026 ▶ 29:52 The Lilian Weng Saga, Mental Health Essay Then OpenAI | Meta's AI Ad, China Cracks DUV
Jul 31, 2026 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lessin: China Remains Far Behind on Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography
“Extreme is much more cutting edge, and China's still far behind on that.”
Jessica Lessin Jul 31, 2026 ▶ 29:06 The Lilian Weng Saga, Mental Health Essay Then OpenAI | Meta's AI Ad, China Cracks DUV
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