The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 34 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: Autonomous AI agents will inevitably hire humans for tasks
“The agent hiring the people, which of course is going to happen, right? It's obviously going to happen.”
Ethan He: Video Agents Will Reach Production-Grade Quality by Year-End
“I guess by the end of this year is this is going to be a big hit. So the inflection point will be there and the videos generated by video agents can get to like production great quality. So it can be presented and it can be distributed in, in ads.”
Nelle: Developers will spend thousands to tens of thousands monthly on agents
“I think as we think about these highly parallel kind of agents running off for a long time in their own VM system, We are already at that point where people will be spending thousands of dollars a month per, per human, and I think potentially tens of thousands…”
Patel: Google and Amazon will borrow debt to fund AI infrastructure
“Google and Amazon haven't taken on debt yet for AI infrastructure, but they will, right?”
Yegge: Open source models will match Gemini 3 by next summer
“From what I've heard, they, they're seven months behind, and that, that gap is gradually narrowing. The frontier models, which means OSS models will be as good as Gemini three next summer.”
Taskaya: Training a state-of-the-art image model costs under $1M
“Like right now, like if you look, if you want to train a Sota image model, I don't think it's going to cost more than a million dollars. It's extremely cheap. It's like a matter of data engineering effort, cleaning. It's, I think it's a function of data set.”
Morcos: Training a specialized frontier model will cost under $1M very soon
“I believe that getting to a frontier model should cost a million dollars or less for most organizations, at least in a specialized domain, right?
And when you think about what enterprises need, that's generally what they need.
They don't need a model that can …”
Ameisen: Deceptive Backward Reasoning Exists in Base Pre-Trained Models
“I bet, I don't know how much I bet a hundred bucks. So somebody can like, they would get a hundred bucks from me if they prove that I'm wrong, that this behavior for a model that does a drink fine tuning, it also does it post pre-training.”
Roucher: AI agents will reach a 90% GAIA score by 2026
“So I think if we solve Gaia, that's like 90% score. That means mostly we double productivity of every task done in front of a computer. And if you take the trend line of the scores so far this should be crossed in 2026 or something.”
Altman: 10-million-token fast context windows are coming within months
“Even getting to the, like, Ten million tokens of very fast and accurate context, which I expect to measure in, like, months, something like that.”
Bach: Smaller, more powerful models will ensure unconstrained AI remains accessible
“Yes, but there will also be better jailbroken models or models that have never been jailed before, because we find out how to make smaller models that are more powerful.”
Multimodal models will completely supplant text-only large language models
“I actually think like it's really clear today. Multimodal models are the default foundation model, right? It's just going to supplant LLMs. Like why did you just train a giant multimodal model?”
Patel: AMD MI300 will beat Nvidia H100 on paper within a quarter
“AMD. They have a GPU. MI 300. That will be better than the H 100 in a quarter or so. Now, that says nothing about how hard it is to program it, but at least hardware-wise, on paper, it's better.”
O'Laughlin: CXL will take off as operators pool old DDR4 memory
“This CXL technology that kind of never really took off is going to take off just because what they're going to do is they're going to take DDR four. They're going to take the oldest, every bit of spare memory they can find, and they're going to put them into r…”
Chen: AI agents will master GUI-based computer use by 2026
“And I can continue just by sort of like saying that that's definitely going to be something I think is going to be something that we'll be capable of in 20, 26.”
OpenAI's technology will surpass o3 within six months
“I think that Oh, three is not where the technology will be in six months.”
Conrad: Test-time inference will significantly expand inference compute demand
“The thing I do feel reasonably confident about saying is that the test time inference is probably going to quite significantly expand the amount of compute that was used for inference.”
Ben-Smith: AI will enable natural language steering of recommendation algorithms
“I think what actually AI will enable is not that you bring your own algorithm, but you will be able to talk. You will be able to communicate with the algorithm.”
Colvin: Pydantic AI will be first framework implementing OpenTelemetry GenAI attributes
“I suspect Pedantic AI will be the first agent framework that implements those semantic attributes properly, because again, we control Pedantic AI, and we can say this is important for observability, whereas most of the other agent frameworks are not maintained…”
Prakash predicts up to 5 million AI GPUs will sell in 2024
“There is four to five million GPUs that will be sold this year. NVIDIA and others.”
Yegge: AI coding will fragment into many specialized, fine-tuned models
“And that, that fragmentation of models actually, we expected to continue and proliferate, right? Because we are fundamentally, we're a recommender engine right now. We're recommending code to the LLM. We're saying, may I interest you in this code right here so…”
Patel: Nvidia will sell over 3 million GPUs in 2024
“NVIDIA is going to sell well over three million, you know, total GPUs next year. You know, over a million H 100 this year alone, right?”
Brockman: Most AI compute will shift from training to inference
“We're going to move from a world where most of the compute is training the model as we've deployed these models more, you know, more of the compute goes to inferencing them and actually using them.”
Packer: ChatGPT will likely use sleep-time compute to learn offline
“Like if you activate sleep time compute on a chatbot like ChatGPT, it can like learn about you as you're not on ChatGPT.com. I think that's, you know, kind of what they're probably going to try to do. That's the direction they're going in.”
Hershey predicts the Claude stream won't reach Victory Road within 16 days
“I think we have a little ways before we can beat the game in 16 days. I do not have a lot of faith that the current stream is gonna, gonna be standing in Victory Road in 13 days.”
Klein: Authentication providers will offer dedicated login features for AI agents
“I think there'll be agent off in the future. I don't know if it's going to happen from an individual company, but actually authentication providers that have a You know, hidden login as agent feature, which will then you put in your email. You'll get a push no…”
Fanelli: Computer use agents will likely automate expense reports within a year
“It's not, you cannot actually do it today, but it feels like a tractable problem, you know, that probably by the end of the year we should be able to do it.”
Ravi: SAM 2 will soon run on-device and inside web browsers
“Like, I'm pretty sure soon we'll see like an on-device SAM-II or, you know, maybe even running in the browser or something. So I think that could definitely unlock some of these edge use cases.”
Chintala: Meta will have over 600k H100 GPU equivalents by end of 2024
“That is by the end of this year, and 600 K H-One hundred equivalents. With 250 K H-one hundreds and including all of the other GPU or accelerator stuff, it would be 600 and something K aggregate capacity.”
Lambert: Practitioners Will Adopt Constitutional AI for Preferences in 2024
“I think in twenty-twenty-four at some point people will start doing things like constitutional AI for preferences.”
Lambert: More DPO models will emerge than any other method
“I expect to see more DPO models than anything else in the next six months.”
Rizk predicts Google will soon automatically flag AI-generated media
“The second thing is, frankly, I don't think it's up to you, whether you tell them or not. Very, very soon, like, Google is just gonna mark things as AI generated.”
Lambert: Labs will surely use parallel-compute models to generate synthetic data
“Well, I bet people, I mean, they surely will use these for synthetic data. It's just like the marginal gain on synthetic data is always very high.”
Biggio: Real-time video/vision is likely the next Realtime API feature
“To use ChatGPT's voice mode as an example, like we've demoed the video, right? Like real-time image, right? So I'm not actually sure what timelines are, but I would expect, if I had to guess, that like that is probably the next thing that we're going to be mak…”