The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Partly held up
McCloy: ChatGPT Search Bans for Prompt Injection Are Coming
“I think it works until it stops working. Right. And I would say like, there's not a lot of stories of people getting banned for like Chatsby D search so far, but it's coming.”
Robert McCloy Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 36:20 AI is Eating Search
Prediction Partly held up
Zach Lloyd: Warp's coding agent will likely top the TBench benchmark
“Basically, state of the art on SweetBench, I think we will, again, I don't want to be quoted here, we can maybe edit this later, but like, we'll probably be number one or close to it on TBench also, which is the terminal benchmark, which really we should be th…”
Zach Lloyd Jun 25, 2025 ▶ 1:44 ⚡️Warp 2.0: the Agentic Development Environment - Zach Lloyd and Ben Holmes
Prediction Partly held up
Patel: Intel will release a chip surpassing Nvidia H100 within a quarter
“Intel bought that company from him, and then shut it down, and bought this other AI company, and now that company is kind of, ah, you know, got new chips. They're gonna release a better chip than the H 100, ah, within the next quarter or so, right?”
Dylan Patel Dec 5, 2023 ▶ 41:01 The State of Silicon and the GPU Poors - with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis
Prediction Partly held up
Patel: Nvidia to ship next-gen chip in Q2/Q3 2024 with 3x LLM performance
“Nvidia's releasing a new chip, you know, in, you know, they're gonna announce it in March, and they're gonna release it, you know, and ship it, you know, Q-two, Q-three next year anyways, right? And that chip will probably be three or four times as good. Right…”
Dylan Patel Dec 5, 2023 ▶ 44:00 The State of Silicon and the GPU Poors - with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis
Prediction Partly held up
Compilers will automate complex kernel fusion within two years
“Maybe in a year or two, we'll, we'll have compilers that are able to do a lot of these optimizations for you, and you don't have to, for example, spend a couple months writing CUDA to get this stuff to work.”
Tri Dao Aug 3, 2023 ▶ 11:39 FlashAttention-2: Making Transformers 800% faster AND exact
Prediction Partly held up
Swyx: Windsurf will stick around as an active product post-acquisition
“I think Windsurf as a product is going to stick around, and people who really like Windsurf, I mean, I was a Windsurf user for a long time we are going to keep using it because it fills a need, and like, obviously, Cognition bought it for a reason.”
Shawn Wang Aug 6, 2025 ▶ 44:51 The AI Agenda: GPT5 leaks and the business of AI News — Steph Palazzolo, The Information
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