The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 59 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 59 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sun: Neural rendering with world priors will replace rasterizers and DLSS
“We actually believe that this is going to be the next paradigm of rendering. So it's going to replace how rasterizers, it's going to replace DLSS today because it not only has these pixel prior that's learned from the world, such that you can literally play an…”
Patel: Google will have zero free cash flow in 2027 due to AI CapEx
“There's no reason why Google will have any profit in 27 at all, right, in terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make On, on AI infrastructure.”
O'Laughlin: Google and Meta will see free cash flow drop to zero
“Google, I would argue, is going to free cash with zero. I think Meta will go to free cash with zero.”
Kamradt Predicts ARC-AGI-3 Benchmark Will Remain Unbeaten For 3 Years
“And then V three, our durability estimate for that is three years. And that's what we're aiming for is 36 months for V three.”
Patel: OpenAI and Microsoft partnership will likely collapse within years
“Yeah, I expect in the next few years that the OpenAI and Microsoft probably falls apart too.”
Sean Lie: Next Cerebras Chip Will Run Frontier AI at 5,000 TPS
“And in particular, we designed it together with our next generation wafer chip that will be coming next year. And with that chip, We'll be pushing the performance even further. So we just saw a two X improvement this year with CS four. We're going to push it e…”
Kant: Prompts stuffed with dozens of tools will vanish in 12 months
“I think we will in 12 months not see a single system prompt that is stuffed with 20 or 30 or 40 tools anymore.”
Biderman: PC hardware will soon run near-trillion-parameter models locally
“And in the long, long term, I do think these things will actually run on people's devices, and we're seeing right now the new hardware on personal computers is already, ah, you know, soon approaching the ability to run inference on close to trillion parameters…”
Anthropic will become a trillion-dollar company within four years of founding
“Have you met Dario? Dario's a scientist. He's gone from zero to like what will soon be a trillion dollar company in four years.”
Hong: Axiom Math will be worth $10 billion
“Because when we realize the dream, the company's gonna be worth ten billion.”
Smartphones will run Gemini 3 Pro-level models locally within two years
“I do think We are heading towards a future in one, two years where imagine like you can run a Gemini three pro powerful model directly in your phone, right?”
Andreessen: AI hardware supply chain faces chronic shortages for next 3-4 years
“In the next three or four years, it's like somewhere between three or four years out, basically everything is selling out. So like the entire supply chain is, is, is, is sold out or selling out. And so there, there's no, like, we're just gonna have like chroni…”
AI agents will achieve 24-hour self-consistent autonomous runtimes by late 2026
“We will see before the end of the year an agent that is capable of running for longer than 24 hours with like self consistency the entire time.”
Dylan Patel: TSMC will obey US export controls even under KMT
“Even if the KMT wins, it's not like TSMC starts disobeying American export restrictions because The way American export restrictions are upheld is that Taiwan utilizes American banking systems, American equipment industries, and so they'll still have to uphold…”
Patel: Google will buy tons of GPUs through 2027 due to TPU limits
“When we look in 26, Google would buy a lot more TPUs, but they can't ramp production fast enough, right? And so they have to buy tons of GPUs. And we go to 27, it applies again, right? Google simply cannot buy enough TPUs, and they have to buy tons of GPUs.”
O'Laughlin: AI Agents Will Write 25% to 50% of Public Code by Year-End
“I sandbagged the ever-living share of that. I just believe 25 is, Very, like, I, like, it's like a, the rate it's on is like, whatever, 50 or something like that, but I think, I feel, I wanted to give a 95 confidence interval. I think 25 is within the 95 confi…”
O'Laughlin: Memory supply will not catch up with demand for two years
“And then boom, you're just looking at the supply demand and you're like, yeah, this is not gonna catch up for like two years.”
Zuckerberg: Specialized virtual cell models will merge into a biological Omni model
“I would imagine you're taking these different types of virtual cell models and eventually merging them into the equivalent of like a biological Omni model, kind of like how on the language model side, you had people that did language and then, you know, people…”
Agrawal: Positron ASIC will lead all silicon in memory capacity by 2027
“So we are going to be coming out with our ASIC and then like later, it will have more memory capacity than any other silicon in late 2026 or in 27, actually.”
Scott Wu: There will be way more software engineers than ever
“And so, you know, I think software engineering, the job that we call software engineering is going to change, but I think practically, like, there's actually going to be way more software engineers than ever, you know, and I think there's a lot of precedent fo…”
Formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean is doable in 2-3 years
“It's I think definitely possible. Yeah. Like he, so the professor is Kevin buzzard and he got like a grant and now he just like focused on writing the proof for Ling. Like he's hoping to finish that in like two or three years. And then basically like if Ling i…”
Mlejnsky: LLMs will soon configure and provision their own cloud sandboxes
“And the goal where we think this is getting going is the LLM like decides what it wants to do and how it wants to have the sandbox configured. So it's basically starts controlling the infrastructure itself and creating sandboxes themselves.”
Klein: Browserbase will be a billion-dollar company within five years
“I can predict that Browserbase will be a billion dollar company one day. So let's check back in five years.”
Swyx predicts OpenAI will launch a $2,000 per month ChatGPT tier
“I think that 2000 dollars ChatGPT will come.”
Fu: Real-time long-context video generation cannot use quadratic attention
“You're certainly not going to do a giant quadratic attention computation to try to run that.”
Chintala: Home robotics is five to seven years away from commercialization
“Home robotics being, like, five to seven years away into commercialization. I think, like, It's not, like, next year or two years from now, but, like, five to seven years from now, I think, like, a lot more robotics companies might pop out.”
Liu: Developers will eventually fine-tune new factual knowledge into LLMs
“That's one of those things where I think long-term, you definitely can. I think some people say you can't. I disagree. I think you definitely can. Just right now, I haven't gotten into work yet.”
Wang: Next version of X-Cell will infer spatial cellular representations
“However, definitely our ongoing work and the next version of Excel will be able to infer the spatially aware representations for different cells.”
Interactive LLMs Will Replace Static Scientific Papers Within 20 Years
“If you ask me, would I be confident that in 20 years we'll have these sort of like static documents in which we publish our results as papers? I would think not. Like that doesn't seem like the best thing we could be doing. Maybe some kind of interactive paper…”
Swix: Frontier model context windows will not reach billion-token scales
“We took, you know, three years to go from 100 K context to one million context in every frontier model, but we're not going to a billion, you're not going to a trillion with context graphs, context lengths.”
D'Amico: Impulse will ship globally with major appliance OEMs this year
“So we've got multiple deals with multiple major appliance manufacturers, some of which have announced some of which have not announced and we'll be shipping globally this year through a number of partners.”
Levie: Prompt injection against AI agents will cause major enterprise security breaches
“There's going to be just incredibly spectacularly crazy security incidents that will happen with agents because you'll prompt inject an agent and Sort of find your way through the CRM system and pull out data that you shouldn't have access to.”
Swyx: AI context windows will remain capped near 1M for 5-10 years
“And, like, this is not gonna go to a hundred million context windows. It's not gonna go to a trillion. Like, we're, this is it. This is it for, like, five years. 10 years.”
Dean: AI systems will achieve 20x to 50x lower latency
“And I think, you know, in the future we'll see models that are, and underlying software and hardware systems that are 20 x lower latency than what we have today, 50 x lower latency.”
Chan: AI models will evaluate genetic variants of unknown significance
“And what you really want to do, and I think these models will be able to do is look at those variants and actually model out what is the impact in the different cells, how it influences cellular behavior and whether or not that is Tied to a pathway to disease …”
Bachman: Big Foundation Models Will Train on Power Retention Within a Year
“After that, I think, you know, probably within six months to a year, we're going to start to see the really big foundation models being trained in this way.”
Kamradt Predicts OpenAI Will Delay o5 Release Until 2026
“O five is not coming out this year is my guess, you know, it's going to be coming out next year.”
Ben-Smith: End-to-end multimodal LLMs will replace modular audio transcription pipelines
“In the future that would just be put everything into a big multimodal LLM. And it will output everything that you want.”
Nguyen: ChatGPT Will Evolve Into an Interface That Morphs Based on User Intent
“Chat CPT evolves into this Blank interface, which can morph itself in whatever you trying, like the model should try to like derive your true intent and then modify the interface based on your intent. And then if you like writing, it should become like the mos…”
Swyx: The first single-person unicorn will be a content creator
“Semi-hot take is, I actually know what vertical they'll be in. They'll be content creators and podcasters.”
Wang: Virtual cell models will integrate multi-omics to predict cell states
“So eventually what I predict is that a virtual cell model will be able to integrate not only RNC, can integrate more functionally Related, for example, proteinomics or other regulatory side of omics such as ataxic to overall combine all your descriptive omics …”
Regulated MCP clients may require formal certification and signatures within a year
“You might end up in a world really a year from now. There might be clients that have like certifications that they are in Amplik and get like a signature that they are like financial services, MCP clients, and they can prove it for the server. And only then th…”
General Intuition's world models will initially be orchestrated by Vision-Language Models
“I think our models will initially be used as like you'll have like an orchestrator VLM of sorts. That's kind of like managing instances and instructing them.”
Anthropic and OpenAI will never open-source their high-performance inference kernels
“The high performance inference kernels that sort of drive a lot of, you know, anthropic and open AI and stuff, their models, those aren't open source. They're not going to be open source.”
Lambert: LMSYS is probably setting up a deep research arena
“I mean, they're probably setting up a deep research arena, because that's the data that, I mean, if I was open AI working on deep research, that's the data that I want, and there are competitors, and LMSYS is the entity that has the market placement to set it …”
Lambert: All major frontier AI labs will build their own search indexes
“I think they'll all do end up doing their own index and it should, it's one of those things that's like Google should have an advantage again, but who knows if they do.”
Lambert: Academics cannot match industry compute on Humanity's Last Exam
“I just think it's kind of unlikely that we're going to win as a academic and a state of the art number because they're going to start spending millions of tokens per query. And it's just a lot of, it's a lot of compute burn. Like the getting, beating that on t…”