The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 100 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 100 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sun: Neural rendering with world priors will replace rasterizers and DLSS
“We actually believe that this is going to be the next paradigm of rendering. So it's going to replace how rasterizers, it's going to replace DLSS today because it not only has these pixel prior that's learned from the world, such that you can literally play an…”
Patel: Google will have zero free cash flow in 2027 due to AI CapEx
“There's no reason why Google will have any profit in 27 at all, right, in terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make On, on AI infrastructure.”
O'Laughlin: Google and Meta will see free cash flow drop to zero
“Google, I would argue, is going to free cash with zero. I think Meta will go to free cash with zero.”
Kamradt Predicts ARC-AGI-3 Benchmark Will Remain Unbeaten For 3 Years
“And then V three, our durability estimate for that is three years. And that's what we're aiming for is 36 months for V three.”
Patel: OpenAI and Microsoft partnership will likely collapse within years
“Yeah, I expect in the next few years that the OpenAI and Microsoft probably falls apart too.”
Anandkumar: Multi-physics models outperform single-physics models of equivalent parameter size
“And in fact, I was going to add that it turns out that having the model of the same size with multiple areas of physics does better than giving all of those parameters to each single physics. So if you had separate models and made them big enough as the origin…”
Sean Lie: Next Cerebras Chip Will Run Frontier AI at 5,000 TPS
“And in particular, we designed it together with our next generation wafer chip that will be coming next year. And with that chip, We'll be pushing the performance even further. So we just saw a two X improvement this year with CS four. We're going to push it e…”
Kant: Prompts stuffed with dozens of tools will vanish in 12 months
“I think we will in 12 months not see a single system prompt that is stuffed with 20 or 30 or 40 tools anymore.”
Biderman: PC hardware will soon run near-trillion-parameter models locally
“And in the long, long term, I do think these things will actually run on people's devices, and we're seeing right now the new hardware on personal computers is already, ah, you know, soon approaching the ability to run inference on close to trillion parameters…”
Kolter: Gray Swan's Shade system outperforms human red teamers at breaking models
“However, one thing that we are finding, and this is actually, I think we're kind of crossing this point too. Is that in a lot of the latest experiments, we can do much better than people, than human red teamers now at breaking these models. When I say we, I me…”
Up to 20% of US data centers risk cancellation from community backlash
“Up to 20% of all data centers this year in the US, my understanding is are at risk... Of not getting the community support they need to get brought up.”
Anthropic will become a trillion-dollar company within four years of founding
“Have you met Dario? Dario's a scientist. He's gone from zero to like what will soon be a trillion dollar company in four years.”
Petersson: Telling AI It Is in a Simulation Increases Bad Behavior
“One ablation we did run in, in, in Vending Bench was that we said like we added like, you're in a simulation, your actions doesn't affect anyone. And then it became even more crazy or like it did even more bad stuff.”
Hong: Axiom Math will be worth $10 billion
“Because when we realize the dream, the company's gonna be worth ten billion.”
Smartphones will run Gemini 3 Pro-level models locally within two years
“I do think We are heading towards a future in one, two years where imagine like you can run a Gemini three pro powerful model directly in your phone, right?”
Andreessen: AI hardware supply chain faces chronic shortages for next 3-4 years
“In the next three or four years, it's like somewhere between three or four years out, basically everything is selling out. So like the entire supply chain is, is, is, is sold out or selling out. And so there, there's no, like, we're just gonna have like chroni…”
Eskildsen: Turbopuffer outperforms Lucene on long LLM search queries
“Turbo Puffer today has a fairly start of the state of the art full text search engine.
We beat Lucene on some queries, in particular, very long queries that we've optimized for, because those are the text search queries we see today.”
AI agents will achieve 24-hour self-consistent autonomous runtimes by late 2026
“We will see before the end of the year an agent that is capable of running for longer than 24 hours with like self consistency the entire time.”
Dylan Patel: TSMC will obey US export controls even under KMT
“Even if the KMT wins, it's not like TSMC starts disobeying American export restrictions because The way American export restrictions are upheld is that Taiwan utilizes American banking systems, American equipment industries, and so they'll still have to uphold…”
Patel: Google will buy tons of GPUs through 2027 due to TPU limits
“When we look in 26, Google would buy a lot more TPUs, but they can't ramp production fast enough, right? And so they have to buy tons of GPUs. And we go to 27, it applies again, right? Google simply cannot buy enough TPUs, and they have to buy tons of GPUs.”
O'Laughlin: AI Agents Will Write 25% to 50% of Public Code by Year-End
“I sandbagged the ever-living share of that. I just believe 25 is, Very, like, I, like, it's like a, the rate it's on is like, whatever, 50 or something like that, but I think, I feel, I wanted to give a 95 confidence interval. I think 25 is within the 95 confi…”
O'Laughlin: Memory supply will not catch up with demand for two years
“And then boom, you're just looking at the supply demand and you're like, yeah, this is not gonna catch up for like two years.”
Modern LLMs verbatim regurgitate JEE exam questions from two-word prompts
“We consistently saw how many of these, like, models today are being, like, massively, like, kind of fine-tuned on problems from... Like, oversight? Massively worked with. Like, even, like, imagine if I ask you the light bulb, what comes next in your mind? It w…”
White: Synthesis routes for dangerous compounds are already available on Wikipedia
“You can go find the synthesis route for many dangerous compounds on Wikipedia. People know what are the targets in the human body that, like, are targeted by most biological weapons. It's not really that much of a mystery.”
Zuckerberg: Specialized virtual cell models will merge into a biological Omni model
“I would imagine you're taking these different types of virtual cell models and eventually merging them into the equivalent of like a biological Omni model, kind of like how on the language model side, you had people that did language and then, you know, people…”
Bachman: Power Retention Delivers 100x Inference Speedup at 64k Context
“And at 64 K tokens, We get something like a 10 X speed up at training, but at inference time, because you're not only saving flops at inference time, but also paging in and out of memory of the KV cache, you actually get a hundred X speed ups from power retent…”
Bachman: Power Retention models match original base model performance
“They'll come out with a nice shiny new, a power retention architecture that has the same performance on whatever data set they want as the original base model did.”
Morcos: Datology matches DCLM performance 12x faster with under 10% tokens
“We're able to now get to the same performance as DCLM about 12 x faster. So, you know, in fewer than 10% of the tokens we can match What you get from training to convergence.”
Sohmers: Positron hardware achieves 70% higher performance than NVIDIA at lower power
“So, you know, what that actually results in is like today, we're you know, able to achieve about you know, 70% higher performance than NVIDIA with the cards that we're shipping today. Significantly lower power and price point.”
Agrawal: Positron ASIC will lead all silicon in memory capacity by 2027
“So we are going to be coming out with our ASIC and then like later, it will have more memory capacity than any other silicon in late 2026 or in 27, actually.”
Scott Wu: There will be way more software engineers than ever
“And so, you know, I think software engineering, the job that we call software engineering is going to change, but I think practically, like, there's actually going to be way more software engineers than ever, you know, and I think there's a lot of precedent fo…”
Formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean is doable in 2-3 years
“It's I think definitely possible. Yeah. Like he, so the professor is Kevin buzzard and he got like a grant and now he just like focused on writing the proof for Ling. Like he's hoping to finish that in like two or three years. And then basically like if Ling i…”
Mlejnsky: LLMs will soon configure and provision their own cloud sandboxes
“And the goal where we think this is getting going is the LLM like decides what it wants to do and how it wants to have the sandbox configured. So it's basically starts controlling the infrastructure itself and creating sandboxes themselves.”
Klein: Browserbase will be a billion-dollar company within five years
“I can predict that Browserbase will be a billion dollar company one day. So let's check back in five years.”
Swyx predicts OpenAI will launch a $2,000 per month ChatGPT tier
“I think that 2000 dollars ChatGPT will come.”
Fu: Real-time long-context video generation cannot use quadratic attention
“You're certainly not going to do a giant quadratic attention computation to try to run that.”
Chintala: Home robotics is five to seven years away from commercialization
“Home robotics being, like, five to seven years away into commercialization. I think, like, It's not, like, next year or two years from now, but, like, five to seven years from now, I think, like, a lot more robotics companies might pop out.”
Liu: Developers will eventually fine-tune new factual knowledge into LLMs
“That's one of those things where I think long-term, you definitely can. I think some people say you can't. I disagree. I think you definitely can. Just right now, I haven't gotten into work yet.”
Krentsel: Exo autonomously modified its code to inspect Pokémon game RAM
“We've had XO running, playing, playing Pokemon. And while it's running, the system itself decided to try inspecting the like RAM of the game and then went and mapped the RAM to, and people have reversed in the past, people have reverse engineered this manually…”
Krentsel: Exo autonomously re-architected its Discord adapter, cutting costs by 96%
“We asked it, Hey, I noticed, I asked, Hey, but how much did the last message cost in the discord adapter?
And it was like, it was.
It's like, are you serious?
16 cents.
That's actually crazy.
Like.
Go work on driving that down.
And so it went and re-architecte…”
Wang: Next version of X-Cell will infer spatial cellular representations
“However, definitely our ongoing work and the next version of Excel will be able to infer the spatially aware representations for different cells.”
Hong: Axiom's unmodified Putnam system achieved 99% on Verina benchmark
“And we actually recently, with no modification to the Putnam system, we saw a 99% out of the 189 problems, we saw a 187, we missed only two code-wisp-proof.”
Ethan He: Grok Imagine Video Extension Tracks Full Historical Context
“So the Glock Imagine video extension, it has historical context of all of the previous generated videos. It can it has a context of who is speaking and what objects have appeared and everything having that to generate the next video.”
Daytona spins up a single agent sandbox in 60ms
“And so our time to spin up one is 60 milliseconds with network agency. So requests, spin up, reply, 60, the whole thing, 60 milliseconds.”
Daytona can spin up 50,000 concurrent sandboxes in 75 seconds
“But if you want to spin up 50,000 at once, we are now at about 75 seconds. So it takes about 75 seconds to spin up concurrently 50,000.”
Interactive LLMs Will Replace Static Scientific Papers Within 20 Years
“If you ask me, would I be confident that in 20 years we'll have these sort of like static documents in which we publish our results as papers? I would think not. Like that doesn't seem like the best thing we could be doing. Maybe some kind of interactive paper…”