The Ledger
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why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Becker: Operational Long Tail Will Delay Full AI R&D Automation
“There's this, Very long tail of things potentially involved in in R&D that would perhaps need to be fully automated in order to lead to capabilities explosion. I expect we're measuring, you know, in some ways only, only a small proportion of, only a small prop…”
Becker: Halving AI Compute Growth Halves Algorithmic Progress and Milestones
“And both of them both of those components half when compute halves sort of trivially, because compute is halving, and algorithmic progress halves because compute is this important input, and compute halves, then you might expect time horizon growth to half. An…”
Becker: Current Frontier Models Cannot Cause Catastrophic Harm
“We find, we think it's not capable enough, you know, on the basis of some of this capabilities evidence that you've alluded to commit these catastrophic harms.”
Becker: METR Uses Black-Box Methods Over Interpretability for AI Monitoring
“Usually this is black box, not, not white box in, in, in my understanding in, in current work. So, so not using interpretability, but you can imagine in principle doing, doing, doing something more white box.”
Becker: METR's Hardest Benchmarks Require 20 to 30 Hours of Autonomy
“Then we go up to HCOS tasks, which span from, you know, only a little harder than those small tasks, all the way up to, you know, something like 20:30 hours, which are requiring of more autonomy, more sort of more sort of sequential actions.”