The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,445 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 100 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hong: DeepMind's Formal Math Slowdown Post-AlphaProof Was Non-Technical
“After AlphaProof, kind of like, we didn't see a lot of the formal math you know, results or kind of progress from Google DeepMind, and that's actually because of reasons that are not necessarily technical.”
Hong: Axiom Math has solved open research problems across math subfields
“We have good performance, you know, having solved open research questions and number theory, commutative algebra, algebraic geometry, some discrete math that come into Rx and probability.”
Hong: Axiom Math will be worth $10 billion
“Because when we realize the dream, the company's gonna be worth ten billion.”
Hong: Axiom and Harmonic mistakenly claimed solved Erdős problems were new
“So actually what happened was our competitor, Harmonic, decided to publicize that they have solved unsolved problems, Erdos number one two four and four 81, and then we trusted their literature review, believing that these problems are really, truly unsolved. …”
Nadella: Public AI evals are maxed out; every company will use private evals
“Most importantly, you'll have private evals, because we know all the evals out there are good, interesting, but they're not really that critical. At this point, because they're all can be maxed. And so the point is each company will have its own private eval.”
Nadella: In six months users will routinely have AI autopilots working overnight
“I'm positive that six months from now, we'll all be saying, oh, wow, like all through night, the night, there was a bunch of stuff that all these autopilots that I have working on my behalf with my delegated authority, so to speak, right? I can sort of given e…”
Nadella predicts AI agent knowledge traces will become corporate balance sheet assets
“Which is when a company says it should in fact go onto the balance sheet is how I think about it, right? That's so, in fact, there may be like human capital was never possible to go put on a balance sheet because you didn't know how to capture the tacit knowle…”
Nadella: AI agent usage of Microsoft 365 will exceed human users
“So the value creation opportunity now in the agent world is in fact, 10 X more, but it does require us to have, for example, there's going to be usage around M three six five, right? Which is going to be perhaps more than even the end users. And we have to eve…”
Nadella: Software pricing will always combine per-user with consumption meters
“There will always be a per user, but there will have to be a consumption meter.”
Nadella: Next major startup could be a new university or pedagogy
“So I think interestingly enough, maybe the next big startup and success story could be Someone who builds a new university or a new pedagogy even of how to get someone to go through a curriculum and find economic opportunity, ah, that's highly valuable.”
Ethan He: Falling inference costs will enable generative UIs for everything
“So I think as a inference cost come down, we are going to have generative UI for everything.”
Ethan He: LLM Video Agents Will Orchestrate Diffusion Models and Editing Tools
“Video agents, mostly language models, they'll call these generative model, either it's a separate model or a diffusion head or whatever as tool. So this model can iteratively Refine the results or even like you generate longer content through a very long trend…”
Ethan He: Video Agents Will Reach Production-Grade Quality by Year-End
“I guess by the end of this year is this is going to be a big hit. So the inflection point will be there and the videos generated by video agents can get to like production great quality. So it can be presented and it can be distributed in, in ads.”
ESMC model search generates novel antibodies achieving therapeutic-grade binding affinity levels
“What we're able to see is that, you know, you can search ESMC and you can actually find antibodies that are reaching the level of affinity that are, I should say, are really at the level of affinity that is needed for therapeutic function and activity.”
Rives: ESMC is state of the art among open models for multimer prediction
“Yeah, I mean, I think we're state of the art for open models.”
AI cell simulations will enable parallel reasoning across millions of biological hypotheses
“We're gonna have increasingly capable and accurate digital representations of molecules, genomes, cells, ultimately physiology. That's where you want to get. We're gonna have to go up that, that complexity scale, the levels of biological complexity that requir…”
Smartphones will run Gemini 3 Pro-level models locally within two years
“I do think We are heading towards a future in one, two years where imagine like you can run a Gemini three pro powerful model directly in your phone, right?”
Sanseviero: AI labs republished model merging techniques previously created on Reddit
“Yeah, like all of the FrankenMoe stuff, like all of the Axolotl library, like all of these tools, and there were papers published by different companies and research labs one or two years later that were rediscovering what was already done by The Reddit or Dis…”
Burazin: CPUs Will Become the Next Critical Bottleneck for AI Agents
“You will get to the point, and Dylan Patel was at the conference talking about, from Semi-Analysis that talks usually about GPUs, was also talking about how CPUs will now be a bottleneck because it will be the constraint. You won't be able to grow, or we won't…”
Cooper: Natural language agents will dominate software development within ten years
“That will be kind of the dominant species over the next like 10 years is, is we've moved from assembly to C to C++ to JavaScript to now like words.”
Cooper: Three-month payback buying bare-metal versus renting cloud
“Our payback period when we go to metal if we rent it in the cloud, our payback period is about three months.”
Cooper: The traditional push-pull-rebuild deployment loop will disappear
“Like push, pull, whatever kind of like loop, I just fundamentally believe it's going to go away, right? Like it's, we're going to get to a point where you make a small change in production that changes version across your entire kind of infrastructure. You're …”
Cooper: Agentic workloads will destroy traditional static AWS instances
“I think the era of, like, I have an AWS instance, and I'm going to, you know, get four vCPU and 16 gigs of RAM, It's going to get, like, completely destroyed, right? Because it's like, if you do that for agents or anything else like that, you now need a thousa…”
Azhnyuk: Humanoid robots might be useful in combat within five years
“I would have said that, you know, I don't think that humanoid robots will be able to be useful in the battlefield earlier than in 10 years. But, you know, if you account for the exponential it might be, you know, five years or so.”
Azhnyuk: Front-strike helicopters will see increasingly reduced battlefield usage
“Front strike helicopters, I think we're going to be seeing fewer and fewer of them.”
Lee: Healthcare will solve the hardest AI problems first
“I think for the very reasons things are higher stakes or, you know, potentially considered more difficult in healthcare, I think it's where some of the hardest AI problems will get solved first, just because the bar is so high.”
Codex Wrote Complex SYK Physics Simulation in 10 Minutes
“Codex just wrote up a simulation of the SYK model. This is like a very technical thing in quantum mechanics and gravity. And like, yeah, a lot of research groups have been trying to run this simulation and it couldn't do it. And Codex did it in 10 minutes.”
ChatGPT Pro Derived All Math in Recent Quantum Gravity Paper
“It's a real solid result in quantum gravity that was done pretty much completely by an AI. With humans steering it and asking kind of the right questions, but all the math was derived by ChatGPT Pro, the public model you can access.”
Terry Tao Says AI Math Proofs Merely Cite Obscure References
“I talked to Terry Tao a couple of weeks ago at UCLA. We had an OpenAI event with IPAM, which is this Institute of Mathematics there. And I talked to Terry Tao and he said that in his view, all of the proofs that he's seen AI come up with in math, even the ones…”
ChatGPT Pro Generated Lupsasca's Exact Top Three Follow-Up Physics Questions
“You can take this page of this paper and you can feed it to ChatGPT Pro, say, like the best model we have out right now, and you can ask it, what should I do next? Give me the top three follow-up questions to ask based on this paper. I've done this experiment …”
Open-source AI demand spiked on hype before reverting to frontier labs
“Like all the open source models, I think what happened was they got like very hyped and people were very interested in using them. But I think like over time, like there was a spike in usage for these models. And then it goes back to open AI, Anthropic and Goo…”
Ludwig: Tesla R&D vehicles still use LiDAR in the Bay Area
“If you see, for example, a Tesla R&D vehicle, it actually has LiDAR on it to this day, right? In, in the Bay Area, we see these you'll see like Model Ys or CyberCab that have LiDARs on them just driving around.”
Parakhin: CLI AI tools outpace IDEs like Cursor at Shopify
“The other thing I would claim you could see is that CLI-based tools and tools that don't require you to look at the code becoming more popular, and you could see, yeah, various versions of Cloud Code and Codex and Pi and internal development tools taking off e…”
Parakhin: Bing Sydney's personality was deliberately engineered, not purely emergent
“What almost everybody doesn't fully realize is that it wasn't by accident that Sydney was Sydney. I mean, we spent a lot of effort on personality shaping. We, I mean, it was a bit of my Yandex legacy where previously we did this Alice digital assistant which w…”
Stay Sassy EM: Shift to API consumption pricing will redefine workplace management
“I think 20, 26 is going to be insane. It's already a little insane on that fund because we're seeing a lot of the big players move from kind of subsidy based request based pricing to straight up API pricing, consumption based pricing and I haven't seen a ton o…”
Lopopolo: Zero-code harness was 10x slower initially before outperforming any single engineer
“Honestly, the first month and a half was 10 times slower than I would be. But because we paid that cost, we ended up getting to something much more productive than any one engineer could be, because we built the tools, the assembly station for the agent to do …”
Lopopolo: Current AI models cannot go from idea to prototype
“They're definitely not there on being able to go from new product idea to prototype.”
Andreessen: AI will sweep through coding and every other domain
“And so now we know that it's going to sweep through coding and then we know, you know, we know that if it's going to work in coding, it's going to work in everything else, right? It's just that, cause that's like the hardest, in many ways, that's the hardest e…”
Andreessen: AI hardware supply chain faces chronic shortages for next 3-4 years
“In the next three or four years, it's like somewhere between three or four years out, basically everything is selling out. So like the entire supply chain is, is, is, is sold out or selling out. And so there, there's no, like, we're just gonna have like chroni…”
Andreessen: Foundation model market will consolidate to 1-4 winners in 3 years
“Between the US and China right now, there's like a dozen primary foundation model companies. Companies that are like at scale at some level of like critical mass. It's not going to be a dozen in three years, right? Like it just because these industries don't b…”
Andreessen: Everyone in the world will use autonomous AI agents
“I have Absolutely no doubt that everybody in the world is gonna have at least, you know, an agent like this, if not an entire family of agents, and we're gonna be living in a world where I think it's almost inevitable now that this is the way people are gonna …”
Andreessen: AI will expose every latent security flaw before fixing them all
“We're about to go through computer security is about to go through the most dramatic change ever, which is number one, like every single latent security bug is about to be exposed. So we're going to have like the, we're set up here for like the computer securi…”
Andreessen: High-quality software will become completely fungible and abundant
“And so this thing that was this incredibly scarce resource of high quality software is just going to become a completely fungible thing that you're just going to have as much as you want.”
Andreessen: AI agents will be the killer app for crypto
“I think this is the grand unification basically of AI and crypto is what's about to happen now. I think AI is the crypto killer app, I think is where, where this is really going to come out.”
Sun: Synthetic data matches real-world data for multimodal model pre-training
“We were actually generating a lot of synthetic data and showing that, hey, you can actually, these synthetic data are actually as useful as real-world data when it comes to multimodal pre-training.”