The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 100 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 100 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Levie: Prompt injection against AI agents will cause major enterprise security breaches
“There's going to be just incredibly spectacularly crazy security incidents that will happen with agents because you'll prompt inject an agent and Sort of find your way through the CRM system and pull out data that you shouldn't have access to.”
Swyx: AI context windows will remain capped near 1M for 5-10 years
“And, like, this is not gonna go to a hundred million context windows. It's not gonna go to a trillion. Like, we're, this is it. This is it for, like, five years. 10 years.”
Dean: AI systems will achieve 20x to 50x lower latency
“And I think, you know, in the future we'll see models that are, and underlying software and hardware systems that are 20 x lower latency than what we have today, 50 x lower latency.”
White: ChemCrow paper was presented to U.S. President in 30-minute block
“I ended up visiting the white house. I guess my paper was like the only time a preprint or peer review paper was presented to the president on like their schedule for like a 30 minute block.”
Chan: AI models will evaluate genetic variants of unknown significance
“And what you really want to do, and I think these models will be able to do is look at those variants and actually model out what is the impact in the different cells, how it influences cellular behavior and whether or not that is Tied to a pathway to disease …”
Bachman: StarCoder-3B converted to Power Retention matches baseline loss in two hours
“After just 10,000 steps of training, which this training one took about two hours, this orange curve, you see that it fully matches the original loss.”
Bachman: Big Foundation Models Will Train on Power Retention Within a Year
“After that, I think, you know, probably within six months to a year, we're going to start to see the really big foundation models being trained in this way.”
Sohmers: Positron AI hardware achieves 93% of theoretical memory bandwidth
“And so our fundamental architecture is enabling us, you know, today with hardware that we're shipping right now to be achieving, you know, 93% of the theoretical memory bandwidth of our device consistently across all use cases.”
Kamradt Predicts OpenAI Will Delay o5 Release Until 2026
“O five is not coming out this year is my guess, you know, it's going to be coming out next year.”
Ben-Smith: End-to-end multimodal LLMs will replace modular audio transcription pipelines
“In the future that would just be put everything into a big multimodal LLM. And it will output everything that you want.”
Nguyen: ChatGPT Will Evolve Into an Interface That Morphs Based on User Intent
“Chat CPT evolves into this Blank interface, which can morph itself in whatever you trying, like the model should try to like derive your true intent and then modify the interface based on your intent. And then if you like writing, it should become like the mos…”
Swyx: The first single-person unicorn will be a content creator
“Semi-hot take is, I actually know what vertical they'll be in. They'll be content creators and podcasters.”
Huang: PoSE breaks down on needle-in-a-haystack at 500k tokens
“It does start to break down a little bit more on the longer, longer context. So, like, 500,000 to a million it appeared that it doesn't hold as well specifically for, like, needle in the haystack.”
Slack: Sourcegraph serves nine of top ten public tech companies
“We have like nine of the 10 top Public tech companies as customers and like four of the six top banks and like Uber and Stripe and so on, all these companies using Sourcegraph for code search.”
Wang: Virtual cell models will integrate multi-omics to predict cell states
“So eventually what I predict is that a virtual cell model will be able to integrate not only RNC, can integrate more functionally Related, for example, proteinomics or other regulatory side of omics such as ataxic to overall combine all your descriptive omics …”
Fredrikson: Skilled red teamers phish human participants 60% to 70% of the time
“But for a skilled, like, human red teamer, they could fish the human participants, like, with the 60 to 70% success.”
Fredrikson: Top AI browser agents yielded only a handful of successful breaks
“There were a couple of models that seemed to be very, very robust, right? Like the red teamers found just a handful of successful breaks on them.”
Midha: MatX chips adopt NVIDIA reference architecture to plug into existing sites
“When they decided to pick the standard for their data center, they picked the NVIDIA reference architecture. So the Matex chips just plug in to any site that has an NVIDIA bring up planned. And you know.”
The United Nations uses Chatbase on Facebook Messenger for regional crisis support
“Like, the UN is using us right now on their Facebook messenger. So when people reach out to them, specifically for, like, specific regions, it gets drafted to Chatbase, and Chatbase helps them.”
Sun: Moonlake can generate multiplayer environments and persistence databases via prompting
“So if you just actually just like prompt our Model to say, hey, like configure the multiplayer, then it'll do like this. You'll be able to configure multiplayer. Persistency database for you.”
Qwen 3 memorizes benchmark questions significantly more than Qwen 1.5 or 2
“I don't, we don't see this phenomenon like the earlier versions of like QN 1.5 or even QN two, but start seeing it in QN three. So there's something about a more, like a significantly higher weight on benchmark or like a J or like any times of evaluation quest…”
Altman, Nadella, and Pichai publicly committed to adopting MCP around April
“And then like, you had this like inflection point around April with like Sam Altman and Satya and Sundar and all posting about like MCP and that they're going to adopt MCP at Microsoft, at Google. At OpenAI and that was really like the big inflection point.”
Regulated MCP clients may require formal certification and signatures within a year
“You might end up in a world really a year from now. There might be clients that have like certifications that they are in Amplik and get like a signature that they are like financial services, MCP clients, and they can prove it for the server. And only then th…”
General Intuition's world models will initially be orchestrated by Vision-Language Models
“I think our models will initially be used as like you'll have like an orchestrator VLM of sorts. That's kind of like managing instances and instructing them.”
Chan: CZI Billion Cell Project takes months at fraction of historical cost
“Now we're doing the billion cell project and that is taking months and at a fraction of the price.”
Anthropic and OpenAI will never open-source their high-performance inference kernels
“The high performance inference kernels that sort of drive a lot of, you know, anthropic and open AI and stuff, their models, those aren't open source. They're not going to be open source.”
Merrill: AI models now reliably solve Terminal-Bench's ML training task
“Unfortunately we are getting to the point where models do reliably get this one.”
Bachman: PowerCoder-3B reaches 35% HumanEval accuracy versus StarCoder's 30%
“In the end, this converges to, I believe, about 35% accuracy on human eval, whereas the star coder baseline was about 30%.”
Lambert: LMSYS is probably setting up a deep research arena
“I mean, they're probably setting up a deep research arena, because that's the data that, I mean, if I was open AI working on deep research, that's the data that I want, and there are competitors, and LMSYS is the entity that has the market placement to set it …”
Lambert: All major frontier AI labs will build their own search indexes
“I think they'll all do end up doing their own index and it should, it's one of those things that's like Google should have an advantage again, but who knows if they do.”
Lambert: Academics cannot match industry compute on Humanity's Last Exam
“I just think it's kind of unlikely that we're going to win as a academic and a state of the art number because they're going to start spending millions of tokens per query. And it's just a lot of, it's a lot of compute burn. Like the getting, beating that on t…”
Lambert: Jony Ive and OpenAI hardware will run in the cloud
“I think that thing will run on the cloud. I don't think that'll run local anyways.”
McCloy: ChatGPT will not pass user prompts to destination websites
“The reason I think it probably won't be the case in the future is for privacy reasons. So I don't think that you will see, at least in the context of the way search is working today inside like a system like ChatWD, I don't think you'll see that it's going to …”
Morris: LLaMA architecture will likely store more information per parameter than GPT
“Maybe even if we tested this with LALAMA architecture, like, there's sort of like a GPT++ architecture, like, I would guess that can store better data just because the kind of numerical flow is a little bit better, the nonlinearities are maybe, like, A little …”
Vibhu: Gemma Activates Abstract Behavioral Traits Over Simple Token Completion
“It also shows internally that there's more than just token completion of, you know, this plus this equals this. No, it has some under understanding of characteristics, right? Like this is a pretty stubborn dog. It has a stubborn feature. Pretty high up that ac…”
GPT-4.1 Nano and Mini are new pre-trains; base 4.1 is mid-train
“Nano is obviously a new pre-train. We also have a new pre-train for Mini, and then, ah, the larger version is, ah, a new mid-train.”
Colvin: Rust-native data storage could yield 3x to 5x Pydantic speedup
“We have plans to move some of the, basically store the data in rust types after validation. Not convert to Python types. So then if you were doing like validation and then serialization, you would never have to go via a Python type. We reckon that can give us …”
Colvin: OpenTelemetry repos will eventually host AI SDK semantic instrumentation
“I suspect eventually most of those semantic, like that instrumentation of the big, of the SDKs will live, like I say, inside the main open telemetry repos.”
Swyx: Anthropic and OpenAI will launch automated API model routing
“And so I pick and OpenAI have both keys that model routing on APIs already. And so I think they'll launch them, especially at some point where you can sort of prioritize the three tradeoffs that are in model routing, cost, speed, intelligence.”
Hu: AI Models Should Eventually Reach 100% on SWE-bench Verified
“And in that way, I think we should be able to hit up a hundred percent eventually.”
Cheah: AI community will replicate Meta's pipeline scheduling algorithm
“This weird scheduling, which I'm quite sure people are going to start replicating it, is to reduce the bubble, the wastage.”
Chintala: In 50 years, remote smell will accompany digital media
“50 years from now, it would be pretty obvious to, like, kids of the generation to just, like, you know, I guess I was saying, I was gonna say roll a reel on their phone, maybe phones will be, they're just like, you know, on their glasses, they're watching some…”
Hotz: Tinygrad beats CoreML on ONNX tests and will soon pass ONNX Runtime
“We're below Onyx runtime, but we're beyond CoreML. So, like, that's, like, where we are in Onyx support now, but we will pass Onyx runtime soon, because it becomes very easy to add ops, because of how, like, you don't need to do anything at the lower levels.”
Park: Simile AI agents can autonomously navigate live website URLs
“Some of the things that our agents can also do is you can be given a domain, like a website URL and actually go use it for a while.”
Midjourney's David Holtz explored text diffusion to storyboard entire movies
“David Holtz from Midjourney was investing in text diffusion. I don't think anything came out of it, but like the idea was that you can storyboard a long movie and then you can generate the scenes with video, normal video gen.”
Bubna: Ramp trained custom tokenizers to swap into LLaMA
“Ramp actually early in the day was training their own tokenizer and, like, Swapping out the tokenizer in Lama and whatnot.”
Krause: DARPA and GE Aerospace synthesized 500 alloys in 12 months
“The largest alloys program was the mock program. It was run by DARPA NGE Aerospace. They did 500 alloys in about 12 months. They did a bunch of kind of AI and simulations on the front end of that, and then they synthesized 500 new alloys in that whole year.”