why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zhang: Meta Failed at Training MoE Models for Llama Series
“The reason why Lama open-sourced the MOE model, because I think they tried to train our MOE model, but they failed. So that, that's why they didn't open source MOE mode for Lama series.”
Assertion Supported
Meta Llama 3.3 and Llama 4 perform poorly on agent benchmarks
“Another, of course, the other surprise was that all the Lama models were not performing well on our benchmark. 3.3 and even the Lama four all were really performing extremely poor.”
Assertion Supported
Ben Allal: Hugging Face SmolLM2-1.7B outperforms Llama 3.2 models
“So it's a series of three models, which are the best in class in each model size. For example, our 1.7 B model outperforms Lama one B and also .2.”
Assertion Supported
Cerebras WSE-3 runs Llama inference 70x faster than NVIDIA GPUs
“Cerebris came out that the wafer scale engine three can serve llama 70 B at 2.1 thousand sorry, 202,100 tokens per second and serves llama four or five B at nearly 1000 tokens per second. So this, you know, to give you an understanding, like this is about 70 t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pure-play foundation model companies will be commoditized by Llama and big tech
“I think pure play foundation model companies are just gonna be pinched by how good The next couple of llamas are going to be, and the next, like, what next good open source thing, and then seeing the really big players put ridiculous amounts of compute behind …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Future Llama models will match frontier GPT models if progress slows
“As AI progress slows down, so if we get like Llama-IV, Llama-V for example, maybe it's a comparable at that point, like GPT-V or GPT-VI, like, It made it to the point where it was like, look, I just want to use Lama. Like, it's, you know, safe for me to, you k…”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Hugging Face libraries achieve only 15% MBU for inference
“Hugging Face's libraries are actually very inefficient, like incredibly inefficient for inference. You get like, 15% MBU on, on, on, on some configurations, like eight, eight, eight, eight, eight, eight, 100, and LLAMA-seventy-beat, you get like, 15%, which is…”
What-if
Lample: Post-training breakthroughs like DPO were impossible without open LLaMA
“And if you look at many of the techniques that were developed after, for instance, Temma was open source, like all these post-training approaches like even DPOD, like performance optimization, all of this were done by people that had access to this model, and …”
Opinion
Lambert: Meta withholding its leading benchmark model is bad execution
“But to be a model that claims to be open and then not release the model that is your leading claim is just, like, that is, like, bad execution.”
Assertion Supported
Soldani: Llama and Qwen models fail OSI open source AI definition
“Under this definition, for example, Lama or some of the Quen models are not open source because the license says you can, you can't use this model for this, or it says if you use this model, you have to name the output this way or derivative needs to be named …”
Assertion Supported
Angelopoulos: The Chatbot Arena leaderboard is currently not an apples-to-apples comparison
“None of the leaderboard currently is apples to apples, because you have, like, Gemini Flash, you have, you know, all sorts of tiny models, like Llama Like, eight B and four or five B are not apples to apples.”
Insight
Yi Tay: Meta's Llama is corporate open weights, not grassroots open source
“To me, Lama Tree is like... Meta has an org that is hypothetically very similar to Gemini or something but they just decide to release the weights It's open weights It's open weights and everything”
Insight
Agarwal: Synthetic data distillation bypasses model vocabulary and tokenizer mismatches
“The one nice thing about this kind of distillation is it doesn't matter if you have a vocabulary mismatch, because we're not using the next token distribution or probability labels. You can distill from one model which uses some random tokenizer to another mod…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Conover: Commercial LLMs struggle to generate 5,000 output tokens in one generation
“There is a characteristic output length for these models. Let's say it's about 1200 tokens. Like it is very difficult to get any of the commercial LMs or LLAMA to write 5000 tokens.”
Opinion
Chintala: Time and data constrain Meta LLM releases more than GPUs
“So, I think the, it's all a matter of time. I think time is the biggest bottleneck. It's like, when do you stop training the previous one, and when do you start training the next one? And how do you make those decisions? The data, do you have net new data, bet…”
Insight
Lambert: RLHF Performance Depends on Data and Systems Over RL Details
“It really ends up being kind of, like, gibberish that I think is less important now, because it's more about data and infrastructure than RL details, than, like, value functions and everything. A lot of the papers have different terms in the equations. I think…”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2026
Bubna: Ramp trained custom tokenizers to swap into LLaMA
“Ramp actually early in the day was training their own tokenizer and, like, Swapping out the tokenizer in Lama and whatnot.”
Disclosure
Ethan He: NVIDIA Cosmos uses a 7B video model with a larger LLM rewriter
“I think in in Cosmos, we use Lama or we use mix, mix through. And the Cosmos video model itself is only seven B, and the model, the language model is a prompt rewriter. It's bigger than that.”
Assertion Supported
DeepSeek 128k context fits in 8GB KV cache versus Llama's 80GB
“For context like the total I think the total context length of DeepSeq is a 128,000 tokens, or it might be 256,000 with rope extension. That entire context, I think it's a 128,000, fits into eight gigabytes. And previously context, like I think the Lama four o…”
Disclosure
Goodfire AI: We replicated code error and malicious features in Llama
“We replicated a lot of these features in, in our llama models as well.”
Assertion Supported
Ben Allal: LLaMA 3 used 15x more pre-training tokens than original LLaMA
“LAMA was trained on one trillion tokens, but LAMA-III was trained on 15 trillion tokens.”
Disclosure
Drew Houston brings an external GPU on planes to run Llama locally
“When I'm on a plane or something or where, like, you don't have access or the Internet's not reliable, I actually bring a gaming laptop on the plane with me. It's, like, a little, like, blue briefcase-looking thing, and then I, like, literally hook up a GPU, l…”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Running LLaMA-70B at reading speed requires 2.1 TB/s memory bandwidth
“Hey, to run Llama's seventy billion requires two terabytes a second of memory bandwidth, 2.1, at reading, human reading speed.”