The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Sun: Neural rendering with world priors will replace rasterizers and DLSS
“We actually believe that this is going to be the next paradigm of rendering. So it's going to replace how rasterizers, it's going to replace DLSS today because it not only has these pixel prior that's learned from the world, such that you can literally play an…”
Fan-yun Sun Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 30:36 Moonlake: Interactive, Multimodal World Models — with Chris Manning and Fan-yun Sun
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Patel: Google will have zero free cash flow in 2027 due to AI CapEx
“There's no reason why Google will have any profit in 27 at all, right, in terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make On, on AI infrastructure.”
Dylan Patel Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 32:41 Dylan Patel Explains the AI War While Cooking | In-Context Cooking
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
O'Laughlin: Google and Meta will see free cash flow drop to zero
“Google, I would argue, is going to free cash with zero. I think Meta will go to free cash with zero.”
Doug O'Laughlin Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 1:27:11 Claude Code for Finance + The Global Memory Shortage: Doug O'Laughlin, SemiAnalysis
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Kamradt Predicts ARC-AGI-3 Benchmark Will Remain Unbeaten For 3 Years
“And then V three, our durability estimate for that is three years. And that's what we're aiming for is 36 months for V three.”
Greg Kamradt Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 28:35 ⚡️ARC-AGI-3: The Interactive Reasoning Benchmark
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Patel: OpenAI and Microsoft partnership will likely collapse within years
“Yeah, I expect in the next few years that the OpenAI and Microsoft probably falls apart too.”
Dylan Patel Dec 5, 2023 ▶ 46:55 The State of Silicon and the GPU Poors - with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis
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