The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Shawn Wang (7)Diego Bachman (5)Nathan Lambert (4)Dylan Patel (4)Doug O'Laughlin (3)Anjney Midha (3)Thomas Sohmers (2)Soumith Chintala (2)Samuel Colvin (2)Priscilla Chan (2)Pratyush Maini (2)Michelle Pokrass (2)
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The record (7) every resolved claim →
Patel: Google and Amazon will borrow debt to fund AI infrastructure
“Google and Amazon haven't taken on debt yet for AI infrastructure, but they will, right?”
Patel: Google will avoid deploying local laptop models to retain control
“I don't think Google is going to deploy a model that I can run on my laptop to help me with code or help me with, you know, XYZ. They're always going to want to run it on the cloud for control.”
Patel: Nvidia will sell over 3 million GPUs in 2024
“NVIDIA is going to sell well over three million, you know, total GPUs next year. You know, over a million H 100 this year alone, right?”
Patel: AI inference will deploy more GPUs than training by 2024
“LLM inference will be bigger than training, or multimodal, whatever, blah, blah, blah inference will be bigger than training, you know, probably next year, in fact at least in terms of GPUs deployed,”
Patel: Nvidia to ship next-gen chip in Q2/Q3 2024 with 3x LLM performance
“Nvidia's releasing a new chip, you know, in, you know, they're gonna announce it in March, and they're gonna release it, you know, and ship it, you know, Q-two, Q-three next year anyways, right? And that chip will probably be three or four times as good. Right…”
Patel: Intel will release a chip surpassing Nvidia H100 within a quarter
“Intel bought that company from him, and then shut it down, and bought this other AI company, and now that company is kind of, ah, you know, got new chips. They're gonna release a better chip than the H 100, ah, within the next quarter or so, right?”