The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 32 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 32 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Jacobs: QXO will reach $50 billion by capturing 6% of distribution market
“I want to build a company that's called fifty billion dollars. I can do that. If there's an eight hundred billion dollar size, I can take six percent of that through acquisition and through organic growth. I can get to fifty billion dollars.”
Wolfe: SK Hynix will bypass export controls easier than Micron
“I think Micron is a US company which is going to be more constrained by restrictions that are put on export control, and I think SK being a Korean company is going to be able to skirt those in the same way that NVIDIA has with, you know, distribution to China …”
Sinclair: Someone Born Today Will Live to Be 150 Years Old
“But I do think that somebody born today
We'll live that long because the technology is just going so quickly.”
Baszucki predicts users will eventually create video games entirely via voice
“But getting to the point where you or I make a beautiful thing, share it with our family, play it just by talking about it, I think is going to come true as well.”
Hastings: Complete K-12 and university education will be available on phones via AI within a decade
“So in the next 10 years, you'll be able to have a complete K-twelve and probably university education. With AI on a phone or tablet that will be really changed learning.”
Flatt: 401(k)s and Global Retirement Plans Will Open to Alternatives
“For one case in the US are going to open up to alternatives. I think plans around the world will open up to alternatives.”
Wolfe: 30% to 50% of AI inference will occur on-device
“I think that you're going to end up doing a lot of inference on device. Meaning, instead of going, ah, to the cloud and typing a query, like, 30 to 50% of your inference may be on an Apple or an Android device.”
Wolfe: Anduril will be a $30B–$50B public company with software margins
“I deeply believe that Anderil in the next few years will be a 30 to fifty billion dollar publicly traded business doing single-digit mid-billions of revenue with software-like margins that are not like these cost-plus margins, so that is gonna usher in a big w…”
Kunal Shah: Elon Musk will likely create five or six $500B+ companies
“Elon is going to probably have, I don't know, five, five hundred billion dollar plus companies, maybe six.”
Sinclair: Global Population Will Cap at 10 Billion Despite Longer Lifespans
“Even with slowing down aging and making us live to a 120, we're not going to overpopulate. We're going to level out at about ten billion people.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Web3 services rivaling US tech giants will emerge in India
“I think you're going to see a whole parallel set of services arise that are the peers of the American tech companies, but in web three in India over the next 10 years, I think it's going to be one of the least anticipated things that's going to happen”
Dr. Z: Humans will travel to Mars within his lifetime
“I think we will go to Mars with humans in my lifetime, for sure.”
McGonigal: Humans will broadcast subconscious thoughts and feelings within 10 years
“I think it's fair to say in like 10 years, we're all going to be broadcasting subconscious or like pre-conscious thoughts and feelings in ways that we can't do it today.”
Chamath: US will spend tens of trillions on recovery within a decade
“Whether you call it the Green New Deal on the left or the infrastructure bill on the right, we are going to spend in the next decade tens of trillions of dollars to try to dig ourselves out of this unemployment and GDP hole that has been exacerbated by the cor…”
Calacanis: US rules will let non-accredited gig workers invest in startups
“We're going to see some regulation in the United States where people are going to be able to be sophisticated investors, In other words, maybe they don't have the accreditation benchmark of whatever it is, a 152 100,000 a year in revenue of, in you know, incom…”
Adam Robinson: Quantum Computing Will Crack Any Encryption in Minutes
“Anything that's encrypted with quantum computing, you'll be able to crack that, whatever the encryption is, in, I don't know, seconds or minutes.”
Domingos: Commercial Airplane Cockpits Will Transition from Two Pilots to Zero
“We already have two people in the cockpit instead of three, and then we'll have one and eventually we'll have zero.”
Domingos: Most Cars Will Be Self-Driving Between 2026 and 2031
“But I, my guess is that, you know, five years from now, there will be a lot of self-driving cars around and, you know, maybe 10 years from now, 15, Most cars will be self-driving.”
Liemandt: Physical schools will still exist in 20 years
“In 20 years, you know, predict the future, what's going to be the same in 20 years? Parents are going to drop their kids off at a building. In the building are gonna be other kids and adults, right? There's, we're not, you're not getting rid of school. School …”
Liemandt: Alpha's Time Back Engine Will Release Globally in 2026
“That's Time Back, our Time Back engine, that's 10, and today it's at Alpha, you know, in 20, 26, everybody in the world's gonna be able to access it. And so everybody who wants to build a school based on Time Back is gonna be able to next year.”
Teskey predicts institutional allocations to alternative assets will double within ten years
“The institutional allocations to alternatives are going to double From where they are today over the next 10 years.”
Parrish: News Outlets Will Personalize Article Text to Readers' Preferences
“So increasingly, I mean, we're moving to a world. I don't think people quite realize that yet where you and I open the same article in the wall street journal or New York times, it's going to be two different versions of that article that's based on our browsi…”
Jacobs: QXO will reach $50B by taking 6% market share
“There are this eight hundred billion dollars of distributors in Western Europe and in North America, which is where I want to plant my flag. I want to build a company that's called fifty billion dollars. I can do that. If there's an eight hundred billion dolla…”
Bragg: Oxford will have more blueberry acreage than New Brunswick has in potatoes
“We're going to have more acres and blueberries than New Brunswick has in potatoes.”
Jacobs: QXO can reach $50B in revenue through acquisitions and organic growth
“There are, there's eight hundred billion dollars of distributors in Western Europe and in North America, which is where I want to plant my flag. I want to build a company that's called fifty billion dollars. I can do that. If there's an eight hundred billion d…”
Balaji Srinivasan: Most English internet users will be Indian
“Most English speakers on the internet are going to be Indian.”
Howey predicts self-driving robotaxis will reduce car ownership to 10%
“And car ownership is going to become a thing that only a minority of humans even own a car because of the way they'll even they'll never be parked really though because every car that can drive itself is a robot, basically, that can go earn money by running Ub…”
Scott Page: China's economic growth will slow without massive innovation
“The same is true of China, right? So if you do a linear projection of China, You know, five years ago, you'd have said, oh my gosh, you know, by 2040, China's economy is going to be just enormous, but the reality is growth's going to fall off, because what the…”
Bret Taylor: Most people will use one or two personal AI agents daily
“One is personal agents, so I do think that most people will have Probably one, but maybe a couple AI agents that they use on a daily basis that are essentially amplifying themselves as an individual.”
Filterbuy will reach $1 billion in revenue within ten years
“In the next five to 10 years, I intend to take that to a billion dollars plus.”
Ackman: Pershing Square will eventually hold 100% of capital in public vehicle
“The vast majority of our capital today is 85%, you know, over time that will be 90 or 95, or eventually a hundred percent of our capital will be in a public enterprise that we're the largest shareholder of.”
Gilchrist: Modern NHL Players Face Shorter Careers Due to Increased Pace
“The players today, they deserve the money they're making, and they're probably not going to make it as long as we did, because I see that the careers yeah, a guy loses a step, boy, he's not long for the NHL, it happens faster now they train harder, they're in …”