The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 30 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tangen: Buying before researching creates urgency and relies on pattern recognition
“Well, I did that quite a lot, and I think it's, why do you want to do that? Well first of all, you, if your gut feel is good, and, you know, people don't believe in gut feel if you call it gut feel. If you call it pattern recognition, more people believe in it…”
Tangen: Contrarians should do less AI and more real estate
“Well, I think the stuff to lean against if you really want to do the opposite of everybody else would be to, you know, do less AI related investments and more real estate investments.”
Tangen: Structural issues will probably keep interest rates higher
“I think there are some structural issues which mean that they probably will be A bit higher than they have been.”
Tangen: Passive investing tends to perpetuate market bubbles
“The natives is that you will, I mean, they would typically perpetuate bubbles because with more passive money, they go into, you know, stocks which have done historically well and they perpetuate the moves.”
Tangen: Norway's Fund Voted Against Musk's Pay Package Over Alignment
“Well, the team thought it was too, too big and didn't have the right alignment.”
Tangen: Three years is probably the maximum foreseeable investment horizon
“Three years time is probably the max you can look into the future.”
Tangen: Big investors fleeing real estate signals better times ahead
“And I see that a lot of big investors are reducing their exposures to real estate. So that's probably a good sign, right? That there are better times ahead.”
Tangen: Norway's sovereign fund increases productivity 20% using AI
“We see in our firm we are increasing productivity probably by 20% just by utilizing it more, and we're just stuffing it in wherever we can, and it's making a huge impact.”
Tangen: AI will not replace human investors at Norway wealth fund
“I not in our place. But clearly in some places, right, you have fully automated you know, investment models in a lot of places.”
Tangen: Americans factually work much harder than Europeans
“And then of course you work much harder in America. I mean, that's just not something I think. It's just like the facts. You got less holiday and so on.”
Tangen: Predicting Global Events Is Increasingly Useless Compared to Speed and Agility
“And so I think trying to predict in this world is just more and more, you know, useless. So you, what do you need to do? You just need to work on speed and agility.”
Tangen: Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund Employs Sports Psychologists for Risk
“So here we use a sports psychologist.”
Tangen: Young People, Nordics, and Public Sector Workers Are Hypersensitive
“I mean, young people are very, very sensitive. In, in the Nordics, we are like hypersensitive, and in the public sector, they are very, very sensitive.”
Tangen: Solo Change Triggers Organizational Immune Response
“First of all you need to execute change as a combined leader group, because if you don't have, if you don't, if you aren't a combined leader group, and you try to do something on your own, you'll trigger the immune system of the organization. You know, the org…”
Tangen: Changing corporate culture is a ten-year project
“I would say to change a culture is a ten-year project.”
Tangen: Speeding up culture change requires laying off people
“No, I think if you do it faster, you need to lay off people. Then you need to change the people.”
Tangen: Rapid Communication Saves Time Because Fast Replies Can Be Shorter
“You save time by being fast. So this sounds a bit strange, but you know, if you answer, if I send you an email and you answer within one minute, how long does that email need to be? Two, two words, right? And I'm impressed because you answer really quickly. If…”
Tangen: Successful investing requires combining stubbornness with changing your mind
“So I think the most important thing to have in investing is you need to be stubborn, but you need to have the ability to change your mind. Very few people have that. Somebody like Stan Druckenmiller has it. But the combination is rare. You need to be stubborn,…”
Tangen: Norway's sovereign fund actively manages 20% of its capital
“So we would, I would say we have 20% of the active, 20% of the capital we would run in a very active way, and the other one, the other part of the capital will do smaller tweaks.”
Tangen: Norway fund achieved 25 bps outperformance over ~30 years
“Historically, over the last close to 30 years, we've had 25 basis points of performance.”
Tangen: Investors Must Maintain Same Risk Exposure After Incurring Losses
“You know, just because you lost, you need to get back on your horse and take the same amount of risk, and it's very difficult.”
Tangen: Junior Investors Cannot Use Gut Feel Because Superiors Disbelieve It
“You can't apply it when you're young, because nobody believes in it. You can't go to your boss and he's like, hey, you know what? I think you should, you know, buy a, you know, a hundred million worth of apple. It's like, okay, well, why? Ah, it's just a gut f…”
Tangen: Overanalyzing Decisions Increases Confidence Without Improving Outcomes
“By overanalyzing, you, it doesn't, often it doesn't improve the outcome, but it makes you more confident about the outcome, which is also not always a good thing.”
Tangen: Anchoring disagreement in physical objects depersonalizes workplace dissent
“So then you put the disagreement into like a physical object, and you take it away from the person. So it's not personal.”
Tangen: Asking People for Advice Makes Them View You as Clever
“They, because you must be very clever who asked me for advice. You know, he must be really clever. He understands how clever I am, and therefore he wants to have my opinion.”
Tangen: Norway's fund uses AI to optimize market cash deployment timing
“You do it a bit in, A bit beforehand or a bit afterwards or, you know, a bit before and after, and we use AI to optimize those type of decisions.”
Tangen: Norwegian Politicians Can Spend at Most 3% of Fund Annually
“We have a spending rule, which means that The politicians spend three percent of the fund every year, maximum of three percent.”
Tangen: Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund Finances 25% of National Budget
“Well, yeah, the fund is 25% of the state budget.”