Tangen: Three years is probably the maximum foreseeable investment horizon
Nicolai Tangen · The $2 Trillion Mind | Nicolai Tangen · Feb 17, 2026 · at 40:56
Nicolai Tangen, head of Norway's sovereign wealth fund, explains the practical limits of long-term forecasting when managing capital.
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“Three years time is probably the max you can look into the future.”
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More from Nicolai Tangen
Tangen: Buying before researching creates urgency and relies on pattern recognition
“Well, I did that quite a lot, and I think it's, why do you want to do that? Well first of all, you, if your gut feel is good, and, you know, people don't believe in gut feel if you call it gut feel. If you call it pattern recognition, more people believe in it…”
Tangen: Contrarians should do less AI and more real estate
“Well, I think the stuff to lean against if you really want to do the opposite of everybody else would be to, you know, do less AI related investments and more real estate investments.”
Tangen: Structural issues will probably keep interest rates higher
“I think there are some structural issues which mean that they probably will be A bit higher than they have been.”
Tangen: Passive investing tends to perpetuate market bubbles
“The natives is that you will, I mean, they would typically perpetuate bubbles because with more passive money, they go into, you know, stocks which have done historically well and they perpetuate the moves.”