Tangen: Overanalyzing Decisions Increases Confidence Without Improving Outcomes
Nicolai Tangen · The $2 Trillion Mind | Nicolai Tangen · Feb 17, 2026 · at 43:53
Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norway's sovereign wealth fund, explains why spending excessive time on analysis can produce counterproductive overconfidence.
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“By overanalyzing, you, it doesn't, often it doesn't improve the outcome, but it makes you more confident about the outcome, which is also not always a good thing.”
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“Well, I did that quite a lot, and I think it's, why do you want to do that? Well first of all, you, if your gut feel is good, and, you know, people don't believe in gut feel if you call it gut feel. If you call it pattern recognition, more people believe in it…”
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“Well, I think the stuff to lean against if you really want to do the opposite of everybody else would be to, you know, do less AI related investments and more real estate investments.”
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“I think there are some structural issues which mean that they probably will be A bit higher than they have been.”
Tangen: Passive investing tends to perpetuate market bubbles
“The natives is that you will, I mean, they would typically perpetuate bubbles because with more passive money, they go into, you know, stocks which have done historically well and they perpetuate the moves.”