The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7,517 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 46 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gil: AI Is Dramatically Under-Hyped Because Enterprise Adoption Has Barely Begun
“And so I think AI is dramatically under-hyped, because most enterprises have not done anything in it, and that's where all the money is, all the changes, all the impact is, all the jobs, everything, right?”
Gil: Employees should bring their professional selves to work, not their whole selves
“You actually should bring your professional self to work. You should bring the person who's going to be effective in a work environment and can work with all sorts of diverse people and be effective and doesn't bring all their morals and values and everything …”
Gil: Big tech operates like UBI for elite graduates doing little
“One argument I make sometimes is that big tech is effectively a big experiment in UBI, universal basic income, for people who went to good schools, right? You're literally just giving money to people for not doing very much.”
Gil: Big tech companies could cut headcounts close to 80%
“If you look at what Musk did at Twitter, Where they cut 80% or whatever it was. I wouldn't be surprised if you could do things that are pretty close to that at a lot of the big tech companies.”
Gil: The largest startup successes had solo or unequal founders
“If you look at the biggest successes in the startup world over time, they were either solo founders or very unequal founders. So that, and there's counter examples to that, of course, but that was Amazon, right? Jeff Bezos was the only founder. Microsoft, it w…”
Tan: Delegating without founder agency turns tech companies into political fiefdoms
“If
The founder and the CEO does not exercise agency, you know, then it's actually a political game, and then you have sort of fiefdoms that are fighting it out with one another, and the leader is not there, then you enter the situation where, ah, neither the l…”
Tan: Big tech talent hoarding decelerated overall technological progress
“I guess it felt like a little bit of a prisoner's dilemma, because I think the result is that you know, tech progress itself decelerated. You have, like, the smartest people of a generation basically retired in place, working at places that, you know, the worl…”
Parrish: El Salvador replaced public teachers with Synthesis AI tutoring software
“Oh, so they developed this Synthesis, this AI company developed this tutor, which actually teaches kids, and it's so good that El Salvador, the country, just recently adopted and replaced their teachers.”
Poilievre: Government Division Led to Protests Targeting Jewish Institutions
“I think there's been, I think the government has tried to encourage people to divide into different camps, and that has metastasized onto our streets with these horrible protests that target Jewish places of worship and schools and businesses and I think that'…”
Poilievre: Conservative government will completely eliminate Canada's carbon tax
“So I will get rid of the entire tax for everyone and for real.”
Poilievre: Mark Carney Claimed in 2021 There Would Be No Inflation
“Like, you know, Mr. Carney, for example, told us in 20, 21, don't worry about inflation. There won't be any inflation. We should print even more money. Well, he was totally wrong. Like, utterly wrong.”
Poilievre claims 25% of Canadians in poverty and food bank lineups doubled
“Now 25% of people are in poverty. Food bank lineups increased by over a hundred percent. One in four of our kids is going to school undernourished.”
Poilievre Plans to Cut Canada's Foreign Aid Budget
“I am going to cut back on foreign aid. I don't think that we should be sending seven or eight billion dollars out of our country at a time when we can't house our people or provide drinking water and First Nations reserves.”
Poilievre promises to repeal Bills C-69 and C-48 to speed project approvals
“And of course, we're going to get rid of the, you know, development law, C-sixty-nine and C-forty, Eight, so that we can rapidly approve massive natural resource projects, nuclear plants, data centers, the associated power stations to feed them electricity.”
Poilievre: 23,500 fast-tracked infrastructure projects produced zero documented environmental issues
“23,500 projects got done from concept to completion and
In two years and the environment commissioner, an independent officer went out and did a full study and review and couldn't find a single environmental problem that had resulted from it.”
Poilievre: Trump Tariffs on Canada Only Strengthen China
“Trump tariffs against Canada actually only strengthen China because they weaken both Canada and the US.”
Poilievre pledges to completely repeal the Bill C-11 internet censorship law
“I would repeal C-Eleven. That's the censorship law, which gives extraordinary powers to the CRTC to control what content Is seen to boost certain types of content that they deem to be Canadian in nature, although there's no real definition of that, and then di…”
Poilievre: University of Ottawa Hired Convicted Paris Terrorist as Professor
“The University of Ottawa had hired a guy as a professor who had committed a terrorist attack in Paris before he came to Canada.”
Poilievre: Bill C-75 mandates releasing accused under least onerous conditions
“Bill C-seventy-five is the liberal bail law, and it requires judges release the accused under, quote, the earliest opportunity under the least onerous conditions.”
Poilievre pledges three-strikes law barring parole for repeat violent offenders
“I will be repealing the catch-and-release law, C-seventy-five. I'll repeal house arrest for serious offenses. I'm going to be bringing in a three-strikes-your-out law. If you get convicted of three serious violent offenses, you will be permanently ineligible f…”
Wolfe: Samsung will decline like Intel due to sclerotic bureaucracy
“If I had to come up with somewhat pejorative analogy, I think Samsung is going to be more like Intel. I think that they're just a little bit sclerotic and bureaucratic and slow moving, and it's going to sort of ebb and decline.”
Wolfe: SK Hynix will bypass export controls easier than Micron
“I think Micron is a US company which is going to be more constrained by restrictions that are put on export control, and I think SK being a Korean company is going to be able to skirt those in the same way that NVIDIA has with, you know, distribution to China …”
Wolfe: LLMs will trend toward zero and become commoditized
“Being able to do that is the real gold, and the large language models are effectively, like, over time, I think, going to trend toward zero in a commodity excavator of that data.”
Wolfe: AI will generate full feature films without actors or crew
“One of our companies, Runway ML, you can, and there's others that you can conjure. Today it's 10 seconds, but tomorrow it'll be two minutes, and full feature films with no key grips, no lighting, no costume design, no set design, no actors, and voices entirely…”
Bragg: True entrepreneurs must work 70 hours a week, not 50
“That's the hours entrepreneurs have to work every week. Not 50, but 70, and entrepreneurs do work 70.”
VCs are 'hitchhikers with credit cards' focused purely on exits
“I call the VCs I call them hitchhikers with credit cards, and, but what I mean by that is that they're getting into your car, And as long as you take them where they want to get to, which is an exit which either has to be a sale or an IPO... They're not there …”
Mackey: VCs push high burn rates to force cram-down rounds
“They're gonna tell you to try to, don't worry about your burn rate, just grow, grow, grow, and I said, that's not in your best interest. They say that because you, they're the ones supplying the money, and eventually, if they need to, they'll do a cram down ro…”
Mackey: Professional managers view roles at Whole Foods as stepping stones
“In my experience, they're very, they're not usually mission driven. They've gotten their MBA from Harvard or Wharton or Stanford. They're very intelligent. They work hard, but working at Whole Foods or Amazon, it's just a, it's just part of their career path. …”
Mackey proposes 0% capital gains tax on 10-year holdings, 50-60% on short-term
“What I'd love to see is that if you held something for, say, 10 years, maybe your taxes, capital gains taxes went down to close to zero, and if you sold it in less than a year, maybe they'd be much higher. Maybe they'd be 50 or 60%, so that you'd create these …”
Bragg Defends Using EBITDA Against Warren Buffett's Skepticism
“Warner said in the past he's not a believer in EBITDA, but we are. We think it's the cash that the business generates that, and so we're always saying, well, what's the multiple on EBITDA, and so we know what cash is coming, because You can usually cut back on…”
Halligan: HubSpot would have failed if I only worked 40 hours weekly
“And if I said, oh man, I wish I'd just put in a 40 hours a week back then, I wouldn't be sitting on this podcast with you. We wouldn't have pulled it off. And I know that's not the popular answer. I'll probably get pilloried on Twitter for saying that. I think…”
Beshore: Using zero debt in acquisitions generates higher long-term returns
“You create higher returns over time by using little to no debt as weird as that is in the finance world.”
Beshore: Companies sold to traditional private equity permanently lose operational independence
“Once you get on that treadmill, like once you sell the private equity, traditional private equity, do a leverage buyout that, that business is forever going to be flipped to the next person. Or eventually might get sold as strategic, but it forever is relegate…”
Research Disproves the Claim That Yelling Causes Children Lifelong Trauma
“This is their idea that anything we do to get, anytime you yell at a kid that can traumatize a kid, that injury, emotional injury can be with them for a lifetime. It's not true. It's not what the best research has shown”
Mental Health Experts Have Weakened Youth Resilience by Controlling Family Life
“So I think it's all essentially bad therapy, and this is why, because who's in charge? Who's running the show? And today with children, with families, it really is the mental health experts.”
Public School Teachers and Counselors Are Playing Therapist With Students
“Their mandate is trauma-informed care across public schools, social, emotional learning, and parent, teachers and counselors, armies of counselors are playing shrink with the kids all day long.”
Studies Show Kids Excluded From Social-Emotional Learning Have Lower Anxiety
“Researchers in Australia and England actually tested this, separate groups of researchers, and they were able to show that the kids in the control group who didn't go through these practices ended up happier, better adjusted, better in, in terms of depression …”
The Mental Health Industry Has Systematically Stripped Parents of Their Confidence
“They have so little confidence right now because we've done, because the mental health industry has done everything it can to divest them of any sense that they know what they're doing.”
NIMH Protocols Exclude Parents While Asking 8-Year-Olds About Suicide
“And it was created by our National Institute of Mental Health. This is a federal government agency, and they decided, and this is part of the protocol, kids age eight and up, they asked the parents to leave, and then they asked the children five escalating que…”
CDC Research Shows Normalizing Suicide Discussions Increases Youth Suicide
“The CDC has great research on this, which is that if you present, if you normalize suicide with kids, if you present it as a means of coping with distress, you know, basically telegraphing, this is something other kids are doing. When they feel sad, you consta…”
Controlled Studies Show Grieving People Suffer Worse Outcomes From Therapy
“There's a whole body of research that shows, you know, people who've gone through natural bereavement, the loss of a loved one, often feel worse after therapy. They did these controlled studies with You know, a control group who didn't, who lost a loved one, b…”
Therapy Causes Breast Cancer Survivors to Experience Worse Anxiety and Depression
“Same thing with you know, breast cancer survivors, anxiety about it, depression about it. They did worse if they had gone to therapy and also alienation from a spouse, alienation from parents. All of these are classic iatrogenic effects of therapy, and there's…”
No Robust Scientific Evidence Shows That Preventive Mental Health Therapy Works
“There's no good study showing preventive mental health works unless you're talking about things like a good life, like connection, you know, doing things for others, getting involved in community, dancing, you know, exercising, eating right.”
Stimulants Are Overprescribed to Children Before Making Basic Environmental Adjustments
“There may be kids who need the stimulant, but stimulants are profound, and they are given out way, way too readily without first seeing if we can make adjustments in the child's environment to help them, you know, handle their distractibility.”
Introducing Therapists to Non-Clinical Children Undermines Both Parents and Kids
“It doesn't require a therapeutic expert who's going to undermine the parent's authority with their kids and make the kids, because it makes a kid feel like, oh, my parent, I, my problems are too big for my parents to handle, so they needed to call in this othe…”
Schools Face a Massive Conflict of Interest Managing Student Mental Health
“There is a major conflict of interest with schools getting involved in mental health. Huge conflict of interest. Should never have been allowed.”
Virtually Any Activity Yields Better Mental Health Than SEL Exercises
“Literally anything you could be doing would be better for your mental health than sitting around and doing these exercises.”
Jacobs: Most Fortune 500 board meetings are scripted wastes of time
“Most Fortune 500 company board members, board meetings, are kind of, they're very scripted, and sometimes they even rehearse. And there's a careful It's a story that's being told by management, and it's done by PowerPoint, it's done by rehearsed presentations …”