The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 57 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 57 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Baker: OpenAI and Anthropic will probably exceed $200B ARR this year
“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over two hundred billion dollars in ARR this year.”
Kushner: Saudi-Israel normalization is inevitable and will happen
“I think over time it's inevitable. Again, I thought it would happen four years ago, but I'm pretty confident it will happen now that we'll have the Saudi Israel normalization, hopefully under president Trump. And I think that that will lead to a lot of the inn…”
Smith: Bloom Energy will struggle to secure gas for 2GW+ deployments
“We don't think that Bloom Energy's assets at two gigawatts or more will be able to get natural gas in competition with all of the other assets that are being deployed that will consume gas, given the scarcity that we see.”
Baker: Disaggregated inference will extend GPU lifespans to 10-15 years
“And the disaggregation of inference means that I think these GPUs are going to have 10 or 15 year lives.”
Patel: DRAM prices will double or triple from current levels
“DRAM will double or triple from here still, because That's how much capacity is required, and they have to steal capacity from somewhere else, and the only way to steal capacity from somewhere else in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher prici…”
Nvidia Blackwell chips will likely reach China, revitalizing its open-source ecosystem
“If Blackwell comes back to China, which it seems like it probably will happen, that will also be very good because then Chinese open source will be back.”
Space-based data centers will represent a majority of deployed megawatts within six years
“If Taiwan Simi opens up at the same time when, you know, data centers in space relieve all power constraints, but that's like, I don't know, five, six years away that data centers in space are a majority of deployed megawatts.”
Movva: NVIDIA is producing 5 million Blackwell chips this year
“NVIDIA's pumping out five million Blackwell chips this year.”
Memory Shortages Will Force Apple to Cut iPhone Memory and Raise Prices
“I think they're gonna make everything else more expensive. I think that iPhones will cut their memory, iPhones are gonna go up in price, and we're just gonna deal with it.”
Thompson: Intel will announce a major foundry customer within the year
“The scarcity is what ultimately saved Intel. And I expect at some point in the year that they're going to announce like some major partner for the first time. It's going to be a big deal, but it was ultimately TSMC brought it on themselves.”
Vishria: China is adding ten times more energy capacity than the US
“The bigger thing to me is that I think China's bringing on 10 times as much energy next year as we are in the U.S.”
Vishria: Leading AI labs will ultimately go public to raise capital
“You have an unbelievable ability to raise capital, which I think is why the labs will ultimately go.”
Smith: U.S. will start depleting gas storage in 2028 from AI and LNG
“Our work suggests that 26, 27 natural gas is, is appropriately supplied. But as we get into 28, and you plug in this compute, and you assign gas to very specific assets as they're plugged in as well, and you continue to export LNG as we're planning to do with …”
Smith: U.S. gas storage will fall below historical minimums by 2029
“When you get to the middle of twenty-twenty-eight, We start to break very materially below in a historical way where gas available in storage has ever been before. And by 20, 29, we dropped below all known historical storage evidence.”
Smith: NextEra yieldco will see a profit windfall by the 2030s
“XPLR, tickers XIFR, formerly Nextera Yulco, which is an interesting, interesting set of assets. They have a windfall coming in the latter part of the decade, in early 20 thirties, Ceteris Peribus, because they mark their PPAs to market at much higher values wi…”
Smith: Natural Gas Forward Curves Will Move Up Materially in Six Months
“People are not really willing to look past summer heat or a slight outage in an LNG facility right now, but in six months, we start to see these companies roll forward to look at 28. In six months, you can start to see the forward curves really move up materia…”
Giffon: Public markets will produce $10 trillion companies
“I think it's uncontroversial to say we're going to have 10 trillion dollar companies and so on and so forth.”
Wachen: Inference clusters will quickly scale to tens of thousands of chips
“And, you know, the inference side, you know, today people usually think about it as an eight chip cluster, or maybe just, you know, NVL as the scale up domain but very quickly, this is going to become thousands of chips and tens of thousands of chips.”
Wachen: AI inference will become the biggest market in the world
“It feels like we are on a, like, decade march for inference to become, you know, the biggest market in the world.”
Wachen: Etched hardware achieves 10x higher user concurrency at equal interactivity
“So when people are doing that evaluation, our hardware is going to generally be able to get you an order of magnitude more concurrency at a given level of interactivity.”
Uberti: Individual trillion-dollar data centers are inevitable
“Absolutely. It is a matter of time. It's like asking, what do you say, a billion dollar fab, or a ten billion dollar fab, or a hundred billion dollar fab? It is inevitable that the economies of scale don't stop at, oh, forty billion dollars is the magic number…”
Khosrowshahi: Traditional OEMs will scale L4 AV manufacturing in 2-4 years
“So I think you'll see the traditional players get there over the next, you know, two to four years, and they'll start, you know, right now the cars are being manufactured in the hundreds and the thousands. It'll get to the tens of thousands. It'll get to the h…”
Buying the S&P 500 at 22 P/E yields negative ten-year returns
“The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the ten-year forward returns negative when you buy the S&P of 22. That's what history shows.”
Patel: Opus 4.6/4.7-level AI inference will be 100x cheaper in a year
“Current 4.6 Opus or 4.7 Opus to your models a year from now, my spend for the same exact quality of the model would probably be like 70 K. I bet you it'll be a hundred times cheaper.”
Nolan: China's Energy Production Will Triple the US's This Year
“China was growing a long time, like. We were equal neck and neck. I think this year they now will be triple us on total energy production.”
Nolan: SMRs will find their niche powering data centers behind the meter
“And so if gigawatt scale is for the grid and megawatt scale is for remote communities or, you know, government installations, then the middle scale, I think is going to find its niche behind the meter with data centers over the next five to 10 years.”
Levine: Robotic foundation models will adapt across diverse physical form factors
“And I think that in the future we'll have A robotic foundation model, which can then be adapted to all sorts of applications, and they might really run the gamut from like, you know, like bulldozers or something, to humanoids, to robotic arms like this thing, …”
Vintage 2020 and 2021 alternative asset funds will deliver awful returns
“I think the venture growth ecosystem gets like a bad rap, but it's gonna be every alternative asset. Their 20 and 21 funds are gonna be awful relative to earlier funds because you had, you know, people thought they were gonna make, you know, a forex in, you kn…”
Sundheim: SpaceX Starlink Will Drastically Undercut Other Broadband Options Within Years
“I think that the cost, they've come so far down the cost curve, I think that in a relatively short amount of time, like months, few years they are going to be dramatically cheaper than, Any other form of delivering broadband.”
Amazon Trainium and Google TPU will eventually transition to customer-owned tooling
“And by the way, in Tranium and TPU, we'll both run on customer owned tooling at some point. We can debate when that will happen, but the economics of success that I just described mean it's inevitable. Like no matter what the companies say, just the economics …”
Smartphones will run pruned frontier AI models locally within three years
“In three years on a bigger and bulkier phone to fit the amount of DRAM necessary, you know, and the battery won't probably last as long. You will be able to probably run a pruned down version of something like Gemini five or GroK four, GroK 4.1, or, you know, …”
Severe compute shortages will eventually force the industry to fill Intel's fabs
“Intel has all these empty fabs, and eventually, Given the shortages we have of compute, those fabs are going to be filled.”
George: AI model industry will support multiple players like cloud computing
“On the model side so far, the way it looks like it's played out is It will be more like the cloud industry. Like it's not going to be a winner take all. Certain technical advantages seem limited in timeframe, right? Like there's kind of, you know, always this …”
Emanuel: Sports leagues will raise PE ownership caps to 35%
“Well, they'll just change. They'll go from PE firms owning. 10%. 35. Yeah. And they'll, instead of, they can only take a billion dollars of debt out. They'll take, they can take two billion dollars. I mean. Yeah.”
Patel: Post-training will eventually consume the majority of AI compute
“In fact, it's the base of everything, so you want to keep having gains, because any gains on pre-training, right, i.e. The model learns a little faster, or the model's a little bit smaller for the same quality, feeds into the next stage, which is this whole po…”
Zito: Tokenized Quarterly Liquid Funds Will Eventually Trade 24/7
“We're experimenting with, you know, what we listed our first fund on blockchain with five different protocols, and we're tokenizing the fund, where I think funds will actually trade. And even though they're quarterly liquid, they'll trade every day, three 65, …”
Sosin: Carvana will probably reach 13% to 14% EBITDA margins
“And they'll probably get to the 13, fourteen-ish percent range based on what they've said, and there's no reason to doubt it.”
Kushner: Saudi Deal Will Prompt 10 More Countries to Normalize
“I think getting Saudi done will be key because there's another 10 countries that will happen Right after that, whether it's Pakistan, Indonesia, we had a whole bunch of countries that really wanted to go, and I think there's a lot more work to do there, which …”
Khosrowshahi: Lucid and Nuro's midsize autonomous vehicle will cost $60,000 to $70,000
“You know, we think the Lucid midsize that they are building for us and Neuro together, it'll be a 60, 70,000 dollar car.”
Khosrowshahi: Apps will still exist in seven years for visual communication
“I think you're gonna have apps, because there are certain circumstances, many circumstances, where the communication back to you is much more efficient in the written word or in pictures.”
Carnell: GLP-1 class will easily surpass $100B in annual revenue
“And I think it's easy now to conclude that this is a class of medicines will easily be in excess of a hundred billion dollars a year in revenue.”
Carnell: Oral Wegovy Lifted Weekly New GLP-1 Prescriptions to 300,000
“Prior to the launch of the oral Wagovi, just a few months ago, the GLP one market was moving at about a 200,000, you know, recorded new scripts Per, per per week. 200,000 new people getting on these medicines per week. The most recent data that I looked at thi…”
Kinshasa will probably be the world's largest city in 5–10 years
“Kinshasa, which is the capital democratic Republic of Congo, It's gonna be the largest city in the world then in probably five to 10 years.”
George: ChatGPT Has ~1 Billion Users and Monetizes Under 50 Million
“If you look at CHPT and the consumer stuff, there's like a billion users. They monetize less than fifty million of them.”
Emanuel: Netflix will inevitably add dedicated paid sports tiers
“But the price of sports, for the end user, Is going to be more. Therefore then the price of, there's going to be tiers at Netflix, you know, with the sports bet, which the sports tier you pay, you know, they're going to have to make a decision.”
Wang: Taiwan status quo persists because it benefits all major players
“Right now I see the status quo persisting because the status quo works well for the Chinese, the Taiwanese and the Americans.”