why aren't all 27 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
La Colombe clashed with its first PE backer over canned cold brew
“We did the deal, and that lasted 52 days to the first board meeting.
I said, ok, I believe that cold brew is going to be a thing, and La Colombe needs to be the father of it.
We also need to create ready-to-drink drinks that include milk, and hopefully one, if…”
Disclosure
La Colombe was founded to supply an expected American fine dining renaissance
“We had a deep, deep belief that there would be this restaurant renaissance in America. There was gonna be this huge inflow of French and Italian high-level cuisine, and that the coffee in America wasn't going to accommodate it. Coffee in America was just dedic…”
Assertion Contradicted
Philadelphia had no cafes when La Colombe scouted the city
“There were no cafes in the city. You know, it's a city of a million, some people, and there wasn't one cup of coffee.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
La Colombe built its original Philadelphia cafe entirely without municipal permits
“In fact, we built the cafe by our, like, with no permits. Like, I did all the wiring, all the plumbing. Like, we asked forgiveness rather than permission on pretty much anything.”
Insight
Carmichael designs food and beverage products for just one or two individuals
“I think it's really hard to make food and beverage for everybody. It's like Kurt Vonnegut wrote for his sister. He wrote for one person. And I think that when I make food and beverage, I have like one or two people I think about.”
Insight
Direct coffee sourcing requires repeat visits to earn skeptical farmers' trust
“The problem is, in places like Haiti, or in Africa, or even El Salvador, there are loads of gringos that show up making promises and then never come back. You have to show a resilience that you're coming back time and time and time again.”
Insight
Commodity coffee traders ignore specialty buyers due to their small purchase volumes
“And traders that are trading over borders, or they're, you know, taking big lion's share, and it ends up in some Maxwell House blend. They're looking for giant volumes, and we're not disrupting that. We're looking for this creme de la creme, and often they lea…”
Assertion Partly supported
Chobani founder Hamdi Ulukaya bought out La Colombe's initial private equity backer
“In order for that to happen, you need to take out this VC.
And he said, great, let's meet him.
And we met him, and he did.
And they had no problem with it?
They were like, sure, we'll sell.
That's fine.
Yeah, they doubled their money in a couple months.”
What-if
Carmichael: American coffee was unprepared for an incoming French and Italian fine-dining boom
“We had a deep, deep belief that there would be this restaurant renaissance in America. There was going to be this huge inflow of French and Italian high-level cuisine, and that the coffee in America wasn't going to accommodate it.”
Assertion Partly supported
Carmichael: 1990s Philadelphia had over a million residents but zero cafes
“So the two main beautiful, you know, roads in the city right now is Walnut and Chestnut. They were pretty much closed down. There were no cafes in the city. You know, it's a city of a million, some people, and there wasn't one cup of coffee.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Carmichael: La Colombe's first cafe was built entirely without permits
“In fact, we built the cafe by our, like, with no permits. Like, I did all the wiring, all the plumbing. Like, we asked forgiveness rather than permission on pretty much anything.”
Insight
Carmichael: Food and beverage should be crafted for one or two people
“I think it's really hard to make food and beverage for everybody. It's like Kurt Vonnegut wrote for his sister. He wrote for one person. And I think that when I make food and beverage, I have like one or two people I think about.”
Assertion Supported
Carmichael: Traditional coffee supply chains can have 10+ layers of middlemen
“Because that chain of events that you described can sometimes be 10 or more deeper than that.”
Insight
Carmichael: Direct sourcing requires repeatedly returning to earn farmer trust
“Once you get the faith and confidence of farmers, then you can do pretty much what you want. The problem is, in places like Haiti, or in Africa, or even El Salvador, there are loads of gringos that show up making promises and then never come back. You have to …”
Insight
Carmichael: Commodity traders tolerate specialty sourcing because volumes are tiny
“And traders that are trading over borders, or they're, you know, taking big lion's share, and it ends up in some Maxwell House blend. They're looking for giant volumes, and we're not disrupting that. We're looking for this creme de la creme, and often, they le…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Carmichael vented La Colombe's first roaster through a 20-story outdoor garbage chute
“I jackhammered a hole into a garbage chute that runs the outside of the building, and I think it's about 20 stories high. And I piped the, then cemented the piping into the garbage chute and told JP to fire it up.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
La Colombe priced wholesale coffee at mid-$7 against a $1.50 market standard
“When we arrived in Philly, coffee wholesale to restaurants was at about a dollar 50 a pound, and ours was the mid-sevens.”
Opinion
Pre-1990s American espresso was too abrasive to consume without milk or sugar
“Because espresso in America up to that point was an abrasive liquid. It was not to be consumed without tons of sugar or milk on it.”
Disclosure
Carmichael offered to surrender his La Colombe shares during a mental crisis
“So, I went to JP, and I said, you can have my shares. I don't want to ruin this thing, you can have it all.”
Assertion Supported
La Colombe Draft Lattes are in nearly two-thirds of U.S. grocery stores
“I'd say, yeah, it's probably higher than that now. I'd say we're getting like two out of three. It's close.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Carmichael: La Colombe priced wholesale coffee at mid-$7/lb versus $1.50 market rate
“When we arrived in Philly, coffee wholesale to restaurants was at about a dollar 50 a pound, and ours was the mid-sevens.”
Disclosure
Carmichael: Offered to give all his La Colombe equity to co-founder Iberti
“So, I went to JP, and I said, you can have my shares. I don't want to ruin this thing, you can have it all.”
Assertion Supported
Carmichael: La Colombe Draft Latte is in nearly two-thirds of US grocery stores
“I'd say, yeah, it's probably higher than that now. I'd say we're getting like two out of three. It's close.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Carmichael: La Colombe founders cut their salaries to zero during COVID-19
“JP and I, we just, we cut our salaries to zero. We went to the executive crew, we cut everyone 50%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Starbucks rejected Todd Carmichael as a barista before he founded La Colombe
“What I really wanted to do, and this probably exposes the kid in me, but I wanted to be a barista. I wanted to be the cool kid, right? And Starbucks wouldn't let me do it. You know, come on, I mean, I was a flannel-wearing farm boy, you know, I cut my own hair…”
Disclosure
Carmichael needed to raise $95,000 to launch La Colombe with J.P. Iberti
“I knew I needed to put together 95,000 dollars so I could start this coffee company with my best friend.”
Assertion Supported
Carmichael: Early 1980s Seattle had only around six cafes
“Because you gotta imagine that there's maybe six cafes in all of Seattle.”