The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Tice: Distrust of artificial sweeteners drove 2008 Coke and Pepsi diet slump
“So in 2008, Coke and Pepsi were experiencing this enormous downturn of diet beverages. And it was really due to the fact that there was enormous consumer distrust of artificial sweeteners.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 22:09 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Insight
Tice: High doses of stevia cause a bitter, licorice-like aftertaste
“Stevia, especially when you're using enough to really sweeten something, has You know, has terrible aftertaste, and you know, has like this almost like a licorice flavor, and it just, it was terrible.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 23:36 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Disclosure
Tice: Lily's chose not to lead brand positioning with charity
“We had large discussions that we did not want to be Alex's lemonade. We wanted to be a delicious chocolate bar that had a charitable Give back.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 35:56 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Insight
Cynthia Tice: Product Innovations Should Stand Alone Without Novel Flavors
“You know, my belief is that when you have an innovation, the innovation should stand on its own, and you shouldn't innovate with flavors outside of The innovation itself.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 38:19 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tice: Lily's Sweets was profitable every year after its first year
“So we lost money the first year. We lost a little bit of money, not a lot. And every year, subsequently, we were profitable.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 45:28 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Insight
Tice: Founders must communicate desired post-acquisition roles to new partners
“And I really, really encourage any founder to spend some time developing your own thoughts and communicating that effectively to your next set of partners. You know, the old paradigm is that you have to sort of wipe out the old team, but that's an old paradigm…”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 1:00:00 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Opinion
Tice attributes Lily's success fifty-fifty to retail experience and timing
“I mean, I think, fifty-fifty. I think my experience was instrumental, but I think there was a big aspect of luck with regards to timing that I didn't really understand at the time. I took advantage of it, but I didn't, you know, I did not know that there would…”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 1:05:02 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Disclosure
Tice secretly planned to shut down Lily's if Whole Foods passed
“And I had decided that if Whole Foods didn't say yes, we weren't going to move forward. Like, I, like, I, like, Chuck didn't know that.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 40:20 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Assertion Supported
Tice: Lily's was the first stevia-sweetened chocolate bar at Whole Foods
“It was the first Stevia sweetened chocolate bar, because remember, there were some maltitol chocolates at Whole Foods, but they were not performing well, and you know, they were regional rather than national.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 43:09 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tice: Lily's Sweets never grew less than 40% in any year
“I don't think there was ever a year that we grew less than 40%.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 45:45 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tice: Lily's Sweets made nearly $1M in revenue in year one
“It was almost a million dollars the first year.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 45:58 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tice: Lily's Sweets cash flow fully funded operations and costly litigation
“It was not only enough to sustain it was enough to sustain it in the midst of a law battle that cost a lot of money.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 48:46 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Tice: Lily's Sweets Reached a $40M Run Rate by 2018
“But our run rate by the, by 2018, when we partnered with our equity partners, VMG, we, our run rate was 40.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 54:05 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Disclosure
Tice stepped aside because she couldn't manage Lily's rapid growth
“So it wasn't that I didn't want to do it as much as I knew that I wasn't capable of it. I mean, Lily's was a category disruptor, and it was growing beyond, you know, we, you know, it was, we hit the marketplace at the right time when there was this growing awa…”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 1:01:16 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tice: Founded first natural food store with unpaid $10,000 loan from father
“So, that was in 1977, and he literally lent me 10 grand, which I never paid him back, but it was technically a loan. And he helped me find a location, which at that point was on South Street in Philadelphia.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 8:57 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tice: Early Philadelphia grocery store was almost never profitable
“It was almost never truly profitable, but back in those days, I was single. I really didn't care about money. I truly didn't. I lived in a really small, not good apartment in a bad part of town, and I just really didn't care. I was on a mission, but the profit…”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 10:50 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Assertion Supported
Tice: 1989 Alar scare drove first-time shoppers to natural food stores
“What we saw was people that had never before come into a natural food store came in for the very first time, because apples were When you think about it, apple and apple juice and applesauce is like one of children's first foods. Right. So, you know, it, like …”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 12:44 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Assertion Supported
Tice: Maltitol is a sugar alcohol that causes severe digestive distress
“The problem with maltitol was that maltitol is, is a sugar alcohol that is intensively, digestively upsetting.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 21:15 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tice spent $50,000 on development before pitching Whole Foods in 2011
“Up until that point, just to kind of give you a sense, we've probably spent 50 grand. And, you know, in developing the packaging, and getting the samples produced, and, you know, in, in, you know, in everything that that took.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 40:03 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tice: Lily's Sweets was run virtually by a four-person team
“And we continued to run the company virtually. My two kids came in and joined, and we were, from that point forward, a team of four.”
Cynthia Tice Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 48:10 Lily’s Sweets: Cynthia Tice
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