why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Eremenko: Boeing and Airbus must choose hydrogen over hydrocarbons by late 2020s
“In the late 20 twenties, I think it will be absolutely impossible for either of those two companies to say, we're going to launch a brand new airplane that will burn hydrocarbons, right?”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2032
Eremenko: Commercial hydrogen flights will operate globally before 2032
“Long before a decade from now, guy, you will be able to fly on hydrogen with a major regional airline, both in the U S or in Europe or in other parts of the world. For a ticket price that will be equivalent or lower, with the comfort knowing that the airplane …”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Universal Hydrogen expects to retrofit half the target fleet by early 2030s
“We would expect to be able to get through at least half that fleet by the early 20 thirties.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Eremenko: Universal Hydrogen will fly first retrofit ATR by 2025
“Yes, we are. The long lead item for that is FAA certification, and we have been quite conscientious about bringing the FAA on the journey with us, right? Making sure that we don't just design it and throw it over the wall and say, please certify this, right?”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2027
Eremenko: The ATR 72 will be the first commercial hydrogen airliner
“The airplane we are specifically targeting as the first hydrogen airplane, and which will be the largest hydrogen airplane to enter service, will be the ATR 72, which is about a 50 to 60 passenger airplane, and flies about a thousand kilometers.”
Opinion
Eremenko: Hydrogen narrow-body aircraft do not need blended-wing airframes
“The volume necessary to power the kinds of flights that these airplanes fly is quite manageable within the confines of an existing sort of tube and wing airplane configuration. You got to lengthen the tube a little bit. You have to add a few meters of length i…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eremenko: Building global airport hydrogen infrastructure would cost trillions
“You can't repurpose existing gasoline or kerosene jet fuel infrastructure. You got to recreate it from scratch, and hydrogen molecules are very small. So this is a fairly expensive proposition, and if you multiply it out by the scale of the commercial air tran…”
Disclosure
Universal Hydrogen plans to load modular hydrogen capsules like Amazon packages
“So our idea was let's turn hydrogen into cargo instead of jet fuel, right? So let's put hydrogen in these modular capsules and move these modular capsules the same way we move Amazon packages, right? So let's move hydrogen through intermodal freight. And when …”
Disclosure
Eremenko: GE is an investor in Universal Hydrogen
“Similarly, GE is an investor in us.”
Disclosure
Universal Hydrogen has raised just under $100M in capital
“That's about right. Yeah, just south of a hundred.”
Disclosure
Eremenko: Airbus is an investor in Universal Hydrogen
“And I'm pleased to say that Airbus is an investor in universal hydrogen.”
Disclosure
Universal Hydrogen is backed by Fortescue Future Industries and Plug Power
“Two of the leading green hydrogen producers in the world are investors in our company, Fortescue Future Industries out of Australia and Plug Power out of New York.”