The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hurlbut: EV market would not exist without DOE loan to Tesla
“You know, we invested in Tesla, and that spurred the entire electrical vehicle market, and that wouldn't have happened without that government capital at a cheap rate.”
Wesoff: SolarCity would have gone bankrupt without Tesla's $2.6B acquisition
“If Tesla had not purchased SolarCity for 2.6 billion dollars plus the assumption of a couple of billion dollars worth of debt, SolarCity would for sure have gone bankrupt within a couple of months.”
Gurman: Apple Car would exist today if it targeted Level 2
“I think they could have gotten it right if they didn't get so far down the road on level five autonomy, building its operations around level five, building its autonomous system around level five, spending 10 years building different car designs and infrastruc…”
Pfund: Tesla Could Not Go Public in Today's Market
“When Tesla went public in, you know, the Model S didn't come out until, I mean, there were no real cars there. That, that wouldn't happen today.”
Noel: Europe cannot cope without Russian gas and faces energy rationing
“The answer is that we would cope only partially. Which is another way of saying we would not cope, or we would not cope satisfactorily. And just to be a bit more explicit, in some countries of Europe, and it's difficult to know exactly where, but, ah, the supp…”
Wesoff: Tesla likely would not exist today without $465M DOE loan guarantee
“Without that diving save of getting that venture capital, and without the half a billion dollars in loan guarantee, it's quite likely that the Tesla of today would not exist.”
Beauchamp: 8 Rivers needs $100M to reach FID on two major projects
“With that hundred million, we would achieve FID on both Cormorant and one of our AFCC projects that we've announced with ENTEC or Pacific Corp. So with that, we would achieve FID and break ground on both of those projects.”
Hickenlooper: IRA would have been 5x larger under progressive Democrats' plan
“Trust me, if the progressive part of the Democratic Party had gotten their way, this bill would have been five times bigger than it ended up being.”
Gurman: Elon Musk would have quickly left if Apple acquired Tesla
“I quite frankly don't think Elon Musk would have lasted long at Apple, right, with Tesla. I think Elon Musk would have wanted control. I think Elon Musk would have wanted to run, you know, probably the whole company, obviously a very ambitious guy, and certain…”
Hoppenstedt: Capping Russian gas at 20% would have eliminated Putin's leverage
“I would say if we had limited it to 20% in our relation to Russia of today, there would have been no leverage for Putin.”
Wesoff: Legacy automakers would never launch major EVs without Tesla
“Toyota is launching 16 EVs in the coming years. That would never have happened without Tesla, and I think that's applicable to Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and the rest of the automakers.”
Jaramillo: Form Energy's batteries could have discharged continuously during Winter Storm Uri
“If we had been there, we would have just discharged flat out, right, for those four days, and there you go.”
Carneiro: Boston Metal could sign offtakes for 100% of critical metals output today
“If we wanted, we would have a hundred percent of the production signed in offtakes today, because this critical metals, ah, the tier one trading, trading companies in the world, they're all interested in them, and we are very well connected to them.”
Dutta: Oscar Health would not exist without the Affordable Care Act
“There are startups like Oscar, backed by Thrive Capital, that today would not have existed without this regulatory turn.”
An out-of-tolerance pressure vessel could be fatal to commercial nuclear projects
“If this was The reactor, and the vessel was out of tolerance, you would have a, it could be fatal to the project, depending on what you're looking at, or at least would be a huge delay, because you wouldn't have to just replace the vessel, you'd have to do roo…”
Baglino: Tesla Energy Scaled Due to Musk Pushing for Large Projects
“Hands down, the energy business of Tesla could not have gotten to where it got to without Elon's input both as a major advocate in the early days and as a strong force for acceleration on doing big projects like the Hornsdale project, going big or going home, …”
Financing unproven battery tech without a Tesla-level balance sheet is nearly impossible
“If we were using an unproven technology or a company that didn't have much of a balance sheet or a track record, I think that would have made this much more difficult, if not impossible.”
Woolard: BrightSource faced existential risk by failing to pivot away from CSP
“I think if I had something to do over, I would have been more Firm and more strong that the company was facing not just a decision, but an existential risk. And I would have been a lot stronger on that, saying that this company will not exist if we do not move…”
Gurman: Apple would have absorbed Tesla rather than run it as subsidiary
“Buying Tesla would have been the basis of their own car project. I don't think it would have operated necessarily as its own subsidiary. I think it would have been the beginnings of, you know, an Apple vehicle.”
Hazlip: Long Island would need 15 GW dispatchable clean power without transmission
“If you didn't have that, you would need about 15 gigawatts of dispatchable emissions-free resources on Long Island.”
Kaufman: Montreal Protocol succeeded through regulation, not consumer guilt
“We wouldn't have gotten there if instead of having global nations all agree together to phase out these ozone-depleting chemicals, if the solution was, hey, try to reduce your ozone footprint. Try to use less hairspray, folks. That wouldn't have gotten us anyw…”
Meeting Equinor safety standards would have delayed Captura's pilot a year
“Some of the technology that we were using did not conform to the safety standards that they correctly have at that facility. So we had a choice to either make sort of fundamental changes to the technologies supply chain to get to that safety level that was req…”