why aren't all 1,222 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Cumulative US LNG emissions could exceed the footprint of 1,000 coal plants
“If you add up all the emissions from what's in operation, all the emissions from what's under construction, all the emissions from what is being proposed beyond that, we could be talking about the emission footprint of about a thousand, actually more than a th…”
Assertion Supported
Del Chiaro: California solar sales fell 80% after net metering changes
“California just announced, you know, just put in place major changes to the number one driver to that market, which was net metering, and we just got data today that shows that sales are down 80% across the state.”
Assertion Supported
Green: Local anti-solar groups receive payments from climate denial networks
“And then they're supported by groups online or in their state or in their community that have ulterior motives, which we found. They're getting payments from organizations that have connections to climate denial,”
Prediction Held up
Biden: The US Will Bring an End to Nord Stream 2
“There will be no longer a North Stream Two. We will bring an end to it.”
Assertion Contradicted
Hickenlooper: House reconciliation bill proposed taxing all wind and solar energy
“The House bill came over and it had a tax on all wind energy and solar energy. So no, no longer are we going to give them tax credits, but we're going to, you know, we're going to tax them.”
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: Wildfire costs account for only 3-5% of PG&E rate hikes
“You know, what amounts to, I think, 15% rate increases every year for the last four years for PG&E because of uncontrolled distribution grade investments, and it's not wildfire related. Let's just be crystal clear. People call it wildfire. Three to four percen…”
Prediction Partly held up
Planned US LNG expansion would surpass Europe's total greenhouse gas emissions
“If we let it go all the way that the LNG industry wants, Soon enough, American LNG exports will be producing more greenhouse gas emissions than everything that goes on in Europe.”
Assertion Supported
Cornell research finds LNG lifecycle emissions are worse than coal
“It's been clear for years now that natural gas used domestically, because a lot of it leaks out, is pretty much akin to using coal, and now we have really interesting new data from Bob Howarth that Cornell, the kind of dean of methane scientists, who's done th…”
Assertion Supported
Del Chiaro: CPUC proposal forces multi-meter solar to repurchase generated power
“The Public Utilities Commission wants to apply the draconian changes to net metering and then some. They want to basically declare every electron that solar system generates on that apartment building and export and then force people to buy it back from PG&E a…”
Assertion Supported
Bowman: UN Draft Guidance Asserts Engineered Carbon Removal Is Unproven
“The Article VI supervisory body issued a guidance in May of this year, which by the way is not formally approved yet, and included a technical note that states that engineered carbon removal activities Do not contribute to sustainable development. The proposal…”
Assertion Supported
O'Brien: Nearly 60% of US TV meteorologists denied climate change recently
“For a very long time in our country, TV meteorologists were Outright denialists when it came to climate change. 50 plus, I, it was close to 60% just a few years ago.”
Assertion Supported
Florida Power & Light paid Matrix millions to fund ghost candidates
“An investigation from the Miami Herald and Orlando Sentinel found that FPNL, Florida's biggest utility, sent millions of dollars to Matrix to prop up fake candidates in local races. Those so-called ghost candidates siphoned votes away from candidates who the u…”
Assertion Supported
Matrix used utility funds to secretly finance six local news sites
“The floodlight team found direct financial links between six local news outlets, Matrix, FPNL, and Alabama Power. Matrix used utility money to fund political websites with names like Alabama Today, Florida Politics, and The Capitalist, and buy favorable covera…”
Assertion Supported
Kra: Greg Becker told investors only a run could bring SVB down
“And then Greg said something peculiar on the call. He said, we're solvent. We're in great shape. And the only thing that can bring us down is if all of you tell all of your companies to start pulling out share money.”
Assertion Supported
Patton: Some Louisiana plants have violated Clean Air permits for over a decade
“Some of these plants have been in consistent violation of their Clean Air Act permits for more than a decade, and they are still in operation every day.”
Assertion Supported
Patton: Marathon received $1.5M in ITEP tax exemptions per job created
“Under the ITEP program, Marathon was by far the largest benefactor from the program. At one point they were receiving 1.5 million dollars in tax exemptions per job that Marathon created.”
Assertion Supported
Gas stoves account for 12.7% of childhood asthma cases in the US
“We found that 12.7% of childhood asthma Could be attributed to gas stove use, but in some states it was much higher because, for example, in Illinois, 80% of households with children cook with gas, and so for, in that state, it was about 21%, similar in Califo…”
Assertion Supported
Gas stove asthma risk is directly comparable to secondhand smoke exposure
“So when we looked at, okay, who else has calculated this PAF, population tributal fraction, for other factors, we found that for childhood asthma, it was very similar to exposure to secondhand smoke.”
Assertion Supported
Rathi: US and China originated the COP26 'phase down' coal language
“And that two or three page document that Came on Wednesday was what then set the tone for the deal to happen on the Saturday, and in that deal is where we had the language around phase down of coal, and that's the language that eventually made it into the fina…”
Assertion Supported
Jurowicz: Nuclear is the only power source enabling decades of fuel stockpiling
“You can actually safe harbor and stockpile years, even decades, of a nation's worth of fuel and energy in the form of uranium and nuclear fuel. You can't do that with any other power generation technology. You can't do that with gas. You can't do that with coa…”
Assertion Supported
Jurowicz: Nuclear power has never been commercially project financed
“Nuclear power has never been project financed before. It has always been financed on the backs of taxpayers and ratepayers because it's been so prone to construction risk.”
Assertion Supported
O'Sullivan: Half of top 20 energy exits were corporate spinouts, not VC-backed
“Of, you know, the top 20 exits actually probably half or more were not kind of venture orientated or indeed growth or backed businesses, but they were corporate spin-outs and so on and so forth.”
Assertion Partly supported
Paruri: Perovskite Solar Requires No Rare Earths and Nothing From China
“There's no rare earths or critical minerals, no kind of Supply chain sensitivities or vulnerabilities, right? Like nothing from the inputs or the tools has to come from China.”
Prediction Partly held up
Paruri: All-perovskite tandems could achieve 60% to 70% efficiency
“And over time, you can engineer out the silicon, and you're just doing perovskite on perovskite on perovskite tandems, You can get to 60 or 70% efficiency.”
Assertion Partly supported
Su: Captive coal plants supply 60% of energy for Chinese solar manufacturing
“So it's kind of like you know, behind the meter for coal for a solar facility. So it's accounting for, I've seen some estimates, accounting for 60% of the energy used to produce these solar panels.”
Assertion Supported
Su: FT reported major Gulf economies reviewed invoking force majeure on commitments
“In early March, the Financial Times reported that the three of the four major Gulf economies were collectively Doing an internal review of whether they could invoke force majeure on their financial commitments.”
Assertion Contradicted
Eighty percent of data center power consumption comes from cooling
“These new data centers that are so power hungry, where 80% of the power that they use comes from cooling”
Assertion Supported
No accident scenario can heat Kairos coolant enough to fail TRISO fuel
“The fact that the melting temperature for the salt is, you know, in like the 400, like we don't actually can't get the salt hot enough to like stress the fuel in the way that, that you could theoretically stress from other actors. So we don't have any scenario…”
Assertion Supported
Fernandez: Large EPC firms stopped offering lump sum turnkey contracts post-COVID
“The reality is the EPC CapEx world changed dramatically after, after COVID, right? Things that used to be very secured, large scale EPC companies that used to be able to give you a, you know, lump sum turnkey contract are just not doing that anymore in, in con…”
Assertion Supported
Jewett: Fervo proved hydraulic fracturing and lateral drilling work in granite
“There was a lot of skepticism. You can't hit those drilling rates in granite. If you can't hit that build rate to a lateral well in granite, you can't do a plug and perf operation, you know, hydraulic fracturing operation in granite in the same way that you ca…”
Assertion Contradicted
Garabedian: Large-scale green hydrogen is not bankable today
“Large scale green hydrogen is not bankable today.”
Assertion Supported
Garabedian: Electrolyzers at $2,000/kW are unviable without massive subsidies
“Electrolyzers today in the 2000 dollars a kilowatt range, they're too expensive to produce economically viable
Green hydrogen. And we're seeing this in projects all through the world. So where green hydrogen projects are being built, they're being built at pri…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Jigar Shah: Battery storage additions will be tenfold natural gas deployments
“Battery storage will be heralded as the savior of the grid a year from now, and we will deploy 10 times as much battery storage as we deploy natural gas.”
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: Oil and Gas Outspends Clean Energy 20 to 1 on Influence
“I think where we are today is that the clean energy industry in the United States, in all of its forms, invests roughly five hundred billion dollars a year but pays about two hundred million dollars a year in influence. The oil and gas industry invests about t…”
Prediction Partly held up
Shah: Trump administration will roll back wind and solar pauses to avoid blackouts
“I think they're going to be forced to pull it back too, just because it's 90% of everything that gets deployed in the grid, right? And so at some point, if none of that stuff gets deployed in the grid, we're going to have rolling blackouts.”
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: EVgo Is Basically Profitable Due to Higher DC Fast Charger Utilization
“EVgo is now basically profitable because of, like, they've got huge increases in the use of their DC fast chargers”
Assertion Supported
Shah: IRS scrutiny of renewable tax equity is continuing under Trump
“During the Biden administration, there was a big crackdown by the IRS on the renewable energy sector for tax credit and tax equity policies. Around step up in basis and some of that stuff, and I think the Trump administration is continuing all of that work, an…”
Assertion Supported
Shah: Solar Costs $30-$50/MWh Compared to $95/MWh for New Natural Gas
“Today, you know, solar power installed is, you know, 30 dollars a megawatt hour. Without the tax credits, it's 50 dollars a megawatt hour. That's more expensive than 30 dollars a megawatt hour. I get that. But that's not out of the money. Right? New natural ga…”
Assertion Supported
Shah: DOGE cannot reach $2T cuts without defense, Social Security, or healthcare
“The only places that matter if you're going to get to two trillion is defense, social security, and Medicaid, and Medicare. That's the only places that matter. Like, the discretionary part of the budget is so small that it just doesn't matter. You could zero i…”
Assertion Partly supported
O'Donnell: Intermittent renewable electricity is cheaper than burning fossil fuels
“It is intermittent electricity that's becoming the cheapest source of energy humans have ever had available. We have now entered this world where, on a primary energy basis, you can have electricity at a lower cost than burning fuel.”
Prediction Held up
Das: Congress will preserve parts of IRA with a scalpel approach
“And so because of the direct connections between the clean energy investments that are happening and the locations in the country and where, where that's happening, I think we're going to see Some continuation of IRA. And we've heard this phrase thrown around,…”
Assertion Contradicted
Woolard: California regulators tried to halt Ivanpah over a tarp's color
“We happened to have a brown cover to that temporary, 18 month manufacturing facility, and the CEC, California Energy Commission tried to stop all construction, which basically would have killed the project, because the color of the tarp was not the right color…”
Assertion Contradicted
Beebe: Zanskar has proven a 90% hit rate for exploratory geothermal wells
“Today, when we do, when we drill wells looking for geothermal, we'll drill 10 wells and get one hot spot. And that's not cost effective. Those wells are very expensive. With Zanskar, they have been proven that they can drill 10 wells and get 90% hit rates, and…”
Assertion Supported
Beebe: Solar Scaled Through Brute-Force Supply Chains, Not Novel Tech
“And one of the key catalysts that I hadn't really understood was the ability to use non-semiconductor grade silicon, you know, not the purest type of silicon to make solar cells. So instead of radical innovation, you know people like Nanosolar and even Solyndr…”
Assertion Supported
Orthofer: Only 10% of net-zero abatement potential is fully mature today
“And when we do that, we actually find that only about 10% of the abatement potential that, that we need to get to net zero is in this in global deployment or a sort of fully mature category which is a lot less, I think, than we would have hoped.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Janus: Advanced nuclear and fusion will not solve grid problems this decade
“They're not solving any problems this decade, right? That is a 20 thirties and probably a late 20 thirties. Opportunity.”
Assertion Supported
Elon Musk laid off Tesla's entire Supercharger team to prioritize robotaxis
“Musk also laid off the entire supercharger team, and now he's putting all his attention on an autonomous robo-taxi.”
Assertion Contradicted
Domenech: US emissions declined as fast under Trump as Biden
“Well, emissions declined at about the same rate under Trump as they have under Biden. In fact, they declined more in the first two years than they did under Biden. And a lot of that was driven by U.S. Natural gas.”