why aren't all 1,222 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Elkind: Post-WWII oil companies targeted drilling in working-class Hispanic communities
“So, at the end of the war, that justification of the war emergency goes away, but the oil companies don't stop asking, and what they do is they concentrate their asks in the working class Hispanic communities.”
Assertion Supported
Herr: California lacks mandatory buffer zones between oil wells and schools
“There's no rule in California that says oil wells has to be a certain distance from a home or a school or a hospital. It's one of the only oil producing states where that's actually the case.”
Assertion Supported
Musk expects Tesla to hit 20 million annual vehicles with 50% growth
“And Elon Musk's expectations for Tesla are for 50% growth, growth per year. Soon selling twenty million vehicles per year, which necessarily means taking market share away from those other vehicles.”
Assertion Supported
Westhoff: Tariffs Give the US the World's Highest Solar Module Costs
“In fact, the United States has the highest cost solar modules in the world because we are taxing ourselves with tariffs.”
Assertion Partly supported
Kahn: Greenidge earns 8x more mining Bitcoin than supplying grid power
“And the majority of the money they're making is not when they're putting power onto the grid, when they're, where they're making the most money is what's going on behind the grid. And you know, their revenue disclosures It was, you know, essentially almost a, …”
Assertion Supported
Lacey: A single Bitcoin transaction can power a US home for six weeks
“And if you want to trade that Bitcoin or use it to buy something, no matter how small, that single transaction could use enough energy to power an American home for six weeks.”
Assertion Supported
Lacey: Struggling US Fossil Fuel Plants Get Lifeline From Bitcoin Miners
“What Brian saw in Lake Seneca is unfolding across the U.S. Coal and gas power plants that are under pressure in Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania, and even elsewhere in New York are now getting an economic lifeline thanks to partnerships with Bitcoin miners.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lovins: Global peak fossil fuel use almost certainly occurred in 2019
“The result is that peak fossil fuel almost certainly occurred in 2019, globally.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lovins: Russia's war will push global fossil fuel use into steep decline
“Putin's war really puts the last nails in that coffin, turning what was usually forecast as a bumpy plateau of fossil fuel use for most of the rest of this decade into a steep decline.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lovins: European Purchases Of Russian Natural Gas Will Disappear By 2023
“It now looks like the purchases of Russian gas will be cut by two-thirds this year alone, and probably be gone by Next summer, at latest, next autumn”
Assertion Partly supported
Lovins: Pipe friction optimization can save one-fifth of world electricity
“You have this order of magnitude energy saving sufficient to save about a fifth of the world's electricity or half the coal-fired electricity, and you recover your investment in typically under a year fixing old buildings and factories or instantly in new ones…”
Assertion Supported
Lovins: New Renewables Beat Existing Thermal Plant Operating Costs Globally
“And now, in ninety-odd percent of the world, it's cheaper to build new solar and wind power than to build a fossil-fueled or nuclear power plant, and in upwards of half the world, it's cheaper than just running those thermal plants, even if building them costs…”
Assertion Supported
Lacey: Biden Administration Considers Using Wartime Powers to Produce Heat Pumps
“There's a real serious consideration inside the Biden administration to use wartime powers to boost heat pump production and then to send those heat pumps over to Europe to for heating to reduce natural gas consumption.”
Prediction Held up
Noel: Weaning off Russian gas will accelerate European decarbonization
“So, whatever is done to win ourselves off Russian natural gas will be leveraged to accelerate our decarbonization objectives. In that sense, it's positive. Governments in Europe will be empowered, potentially dramatically so, to accelerate the transformation o…”
Assertion Partly supported
Hamilton: Schumer Agreed to Manchin's $1.5 Trillion Spending Framework
“And Joe Manchin said, I'm happy to do it at one and a half trillion dollars, and here are all the things I'm willing to support. Here are the things I would not support. And Chuck Schumer agreed to all of those.”
Prediction Held up
Hamilton: Stalled climate bill is 'just a flesh wound' and will pass
“Absolutely. I am. It is just a flesh wound. This bill will get over the finish line.”
Assertion Supported
Wesoff: Tesla had barely installed 1,000 solar roofs total by 2021
“Despite ridiculous promises about spooling up to 1000 roofs per week, I would say that he's barely installed a thousand roofs with the product, and it went through four different revisions over the course of the first few years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lacey: 100 companies generated 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions since 1988
“Since 1988, only a hundred companies have been the source of 70% of the world's heat-trapping gases, and BP's campaign did a miraculously good job of deflecting that blame for nearly two decades”
Assertion Supported
Lacey: BP invented the 'carbon footprint' in a PR campaign
“And so Mark dug into the history of the term, and he soon found that this popular framing wasn't grounded in science or academia. It was the direct result of a public relations campaign. It was a story made up by a multinational oil company.”
Assertion Supported
Tampa Electric used lobbying funds to fight local gas bans
“Again, it was non-binding, but it scared the local investor-owned utility Tampa Electric, also known as TECO. So TECO did what a lot of other gas utilities are doing. It used its lobbying power and money to launch a more aggressive counter-strike.”
Assertion Supported
DeSantis signed laws preempting local bans on gas stations and energy
“The bills passed, and in June, Governor Ron DeSantis signed them into law. One would preempt any bans on gasoline refueling stations, and another would prevent all local governments across Florida from restricting any source of energy from utilities.”
Assertion Supported
At least 20 US states have introduced gas preemption bills
“So what we're seeing is now in at least 20 states a count is at, including Florida, we've seen bills that preempt local governments from taking different kinds of climate action.”
Assertion Supported
Tampa Electric funneled $15,000 to Senator Travis Hudson before legislative session
“What we found in Florida was there was a money trail between the Tampa Electric Company and Travis Hudson, so Tico, Tampa Electric Company, funneled about 15,000 dollars to him, like, right before this legislative session, and kind of as he was working on thes…”
Assertion Supported
Clearwater Gas manager offered campaign donation to senator for passing bill
“Their public affairs manager at Clearwater Gas said she would donate to her senator's reelection campaign if he gets it through.”
Assertion Supported
Rathi: India, China, and US aligned to change 'phase out' to 'phase down'
“You know, in the last hours of negotiation on Saturday, there was a fight between India, China, and the U.S. On one side, and all the other countries on the other side to try and change one word from phase out to phase down.”
Assertion Supported
Rathi: Saudi Arabia pushed for UNFCCC consensus rule, blocking fossil fuel mentions
“When the framework that created COP meetings called the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was put together back in 1992, Saudi Arabia was among the countries that objected
To make sure that the process is by consensus rather than by superma…”
Assertion Supported
Canary says Mast buried ten million pounds of fire-killed trees in Montana
“So we excavated down 20 feet we buried the logs. About ten million pounds, or 171 logging trucks worth of trees. 6000 gross tons would be 4000 after deductions from a registry.”
Assertion Supported
Jurowicz: Reactor equipment accounts for only 7% of nuclear build costs
“The reactor and the nuclear equipment are not the reason nuclear plants are expensive. If you look at historical data, it only represents about seven percent of the cost of historical builds.”
Assertion Supported
Jurowicz: China and South Korea construct nuclear at $3,000 per kilowatt
“In China, they're doing it for 3000 dollars a kilowatt, similar, you know, similar price points with South Korea.”
Assertion Supported
Jurowicz: Accrued financing interest accounts for a third of nuclear project costs
“Because these things are taking 10 plus years to build, the interest accrues, and that ends up being a third of the total project cost.”
Assertion Supported
Gershenson: Venture capital is not the dominant capital source for US climate
“If you look at the data for how much money flows into climate in the US, like, VC is not the dominant.”
Assertion Supported
Many GGRF grants negotiated out standard federal termination for convenience clauses
“So a lot of the GGRF grants, they negotiated out the termination for convenience clause, which is why the thing is still in court, right?”
Assertion Supported
Jaramillo: Iron-air raw materials cost under $1/kWh versus $30/kWh for lithium
“You're starting with a raw cost of materials that's less than a dollar per kilowatt hour, right? This is as compared to, let's say, unprocessed minerals for lithium mine that sitting on a table is, you know, 30 bucks a kilowatt hour, something like that.”
Assertion Supported
Jaramillo: West Virginia provided $290M in financing for 750 jobs by 2028
“The reason we are in West Virginia is because the state provided two hundred ninety million dollars of financing in exchange for 750 jobs by the end of 28.”
Assertion Supported
Multiple VC-backed startups are scaling geoengineering technologies
“There is a lot, there are many up-and-coming companies within the startup space that are VC-backed, that are exploring these technologies and wanting to bring them to scale.”
Assertion Supported
Silver iodide does not degrade and harms humans, microbes, and fish
“Whereas silver iodide is a metal, and it does not degrade in the environment. So it, ah, it sticks around, and it's bad for humans, for microbes, and for fish. And it's not something that will go away once you release it down into the environment.”
Assertion Supported
Su: Invoking force majeure in sovereign investments lacks modern precedent
“Invoking force majeure in sovereign investment agreements would be without modern precedent.”
Assertion Supported
Su: Populist parties in Italy, Poland, and Germany challenge EU ETS framework
“Italy, Poland, and Germany have all seen, as we know, nationalists or populist parties challenge the ETS framework, in some cases directly as a response to the war in Iran.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft's BTG Pactual transaction is the world's largest carbon removal deal
“BTG is a really exciting one. You know, this is the world's largest carbon removal deal out there.”
Assertion Contradicted
Promethean applied for 600,000 tons of methane-reduction CO₂ credits
“Where we are getting the CO₂ credits is reduced methane from the cows because the feed that we provide them and the production dramatically reduces the methane that's coming out of the cows. So in we applied for 600,000 tons of CO₂ credits, and we expect that …”
Assertion Partly supported
Dutta: Antora invented the most efficient thermal photovoltaic panels in science
“They've invented the world's most efficient thermal photovoltaic panels that have ever been known to science.
They were on the cover of Science Magazine for it.”
Assertion Supported
Dutta: Climate does not rank in top 15 voter priority issues
“If, I'd encourage everyone to check this, David Shore, who is a famous data scientist, tweeted out an axis. On one axis, it is, what issues Voters trust each party with more. And on the other axis, it is the sort of intensity of importance of those issues. If …”
Assertion Supported
Dutta: Russia, North Korea, and China dominate global lithium-6 supply
“The three countries that dominate lithium-six supply are Russia, North Korea, and China.”
Assertion Supported
Kairos secured an NRC nuclear construction permit in just over two years
“So fast forward, we got a construction permit from the Aggregatory Commission. First advanced reactor, you know, to submit and get, we did it in just over two years.”
Assertion Supported
Beauchamp: Solar and wind are merely additive to record fossil fuel use
“If you look back to 1800, even biomass today is used more than it was in the 1800. Oil is used more. Gas, coal, everything is used more. And solar and wind were simply additive.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hickenlooper: 85% of IRA Renewable Investments Go to Red States
“So, 85% of the Inflation Reduction Act, environmental, you know, renewable energy investments were going into red states. Two-thirds of the jobs are in red states.”
Assertion Supported
Hickenlooper: New DOI rules require three appointee review levels for projects
“The Department of Interior now is creating new rules that requires, you know, three different levels of political appointees to review each, you know, every action that the DOI, the Department of Interior takes, which is gonna, you know, it's gonna slow down a…”
Assertion Partly supported
Needham: Seven of top ten cited physics papers base ARC design
“Seven of the most 10 highly cited physics papers are still the ones that are our design basis for our arc machine.”