The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 1,222 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Hurlbut: $250B of $370B in clean tech investment goes to red states
“Axios this morning cited three hundred and seventy billion dollars to boost green energy and technology sectors. Two hundred and fifty billion dollars of that is going to red states.”
Brandon Hurlbut Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 6:13 Political Climate: Is the IRA under political threat?
Assertion Supported
O'Donnell: 1,000°C bricks match lithium-ion energy density at one-tenth the cost
“And when you heat a brick to a thousand C, it stores as much energy per pound as a lithium ion battery. Costs 10 times less, lasts 10 times longer.”
John O'Donnell Apr 9, 2024 ▶ 9:11 The rise of heat batteries
Assertion Supported
Alsup: Ambient Fuels halts Corpus Christi project over hourly matching rules
“I talked to the head of ambient fuels who had a massive project planned at the port of Corpus Christi in Texas. And that was a project that was specifically targeting refineries, and not only is that project on hold, Ambient's take is that hourly matching sort…”
Maeve Allsup Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 1:29 The Latitude: Could government rules hinder green hydrogen?
Prediction Held up
Munster: Foreign Electrolyzers Will Reach Half the Cost of Western Units
“At some point, those foreign electrolyzers are going to cost, installed, half the price that ours do, because we're not moving down the cost curve while they are.”
Lisa Martine Jenkins Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 7:58 The Latitude: Could government rules hinder green hydrogen?
Assertion Supported
Downing: VPP peaking capacity can be 60% cheaper than gas peakers
“For a utility, procuring peaking capacity from a VPP can be 60% cheaper than procuring it from a natural gas peaker plant.”
Jen Downing Feb 15, 2024 ▶ 9:06 Virtual power plants: the ‘sandwich’ for the grid
Prediction Partly held up
Davis: Global solar growth rates to slow, remaining flat in China
“But then, you know, this year and next year we're sort of hitting, we're kind of like hitting past that inflection point and growth rates are actually going to slow in many different markets. China being one of them. So growth's actually flat over the next sev…”
Michelle Davis Jan 9, 2024 ▶ 4:22 The terawatt era of PV: ‘Solar will be the gas of today’
Prediction Held up
Davis: Only 50 GW of 120 GW announced US capacity will materialize
“Again, like I said, we don't anticipate all of that. 120 gigawatts of module manufacturing is going to get built. We expect it'll be more like, you know, 50 or so over the next you know, four or five years.”
Michelle Davis Jan 9, 2024 ▶ 17:23 The terawatt era of PV: ‘Solar will be the gas of today’
Assertion Supported
Hamilton: MISO Set FERC Order 2222 Implementation Timeline for 2030
“MISO in the Midwest said we're gonna do 2030. So, so this is 10 years from the time the order was issued. And FERC did issue a ruling that said, MISO, why so long? Why do you need so long to implement this?”
Katherine Hamilton Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 21:11 The storylines of the energy transition in 2023
Prediction Held up
Pending project approvals could quadruple US LNG export capacity
“There's a whole wave of new proposals Coming after that that, if this administration approves, could even quadruple LNG from where we are today.”
Jeremy Symons Dec 18, 2023 ▶ 3:45 LNG exports: America’s hidden ‘climate bomb’
Assertion Supported
The DOE bases LNG decisions on Trump-era environmental impact studies
“Today what we're seeing with the Biden administration is that even the impact studies that it's using, specifically that the DOE is using to inform its decisions, were Completed when Trump was in office and don't necessarily align with the data that we have to…”
Nicole Pollack Dec 18, 2023 ▶ 13:49 LNG exports: America’s hidden ‘climate bomb’
Prediction Held up
The Biden administration will likely pause new LNG export permits
“So I think having signed that Dubai declaration They're probably sending a signal that they're getting ready to do this right thing on this biggest single challenge that they face.”
Bill McKibben Dec 18, 2023 ▶ 17:08 LNG exports: America’s hidden ‘climate bomb’
Assertion Supported
CP2 LNG export facility emissions would be 20 times the Willow project
“The greenhouse gas emissions associated with CP-II would be 20 times that of the Willow oil complex.”
Bill McKibben Dec 18, 2023 ▶ 20:08 LNG exports: America’s hidden ‘climate bomb’
Prediction Held up
McKibben predicts the Biden administration will reject the CP2 export license
“That's why I'm pretty sure that the Biden administration will see reason and say, we're not going to approve.”
Bill McKibben Dec 18, 2023 ▶ 21:55 LNG exports: America’s hidden ‘climate bomb’
Assertion Supported
The DOE does not disclose GHG emissions in LNG project reviews
“They really don't do a project by project analysis. They do a project by project opinion, but they don't actually tell you what the greenhouse gas emissions are.”
Jeremy Symons Dec 18, 2023 ▶ 38:53 LNG exports: America’s hidden ‘climate bomb’
Assertion Supported
Alaska LNG's lifetime carbon footprint would equal the entire US power sector
“One DOE analysis of Alaska LNG, which was re reaffirmed by the DOE pretty recently, showed that even if facilities that received that gas burned it using carbon capture, the carbon footprint over its lifetime would be something equivalent, like something on pa…”
Nicole Pollack Dec 18, 2023 ▶ 43:26 LNG exports: America’s hidden ‘climate bomb’
Assertion Partly supported
Lacey: Zero EV chargers built yet from $7.5B federal infrastructure program
“The Inflation Reduction Act allocated seven and a half billion dollars to building out a national EV charger network in this country, and two billion of those funds have been allocated to states, but there have been zero chargers built as part of those funds, …”
Stephen Lacey Dec 12, 2023 ▶ 49:19 Making sense of advanced nuclear’s stumbles
Assertion Supported
Wesoff: NuScale SMR footprints exceed traditional 1.2 gigawatt reactor sizes
“The modular reactor from NuScale is 76 feet tall, so that's not exact. If you're thinking it's the size of a bread box, it's not. It's 76 feet tall, and when you're building a twelve-pack of these modular NuScale reactors, the size of the civil works that you …”
Eric Wesoff Dec 12, 2023 ▶ 11:50 Making sense of advanced nuclear’s stumbles
Assertion Contradicted
Ramanathan: Average AI usage carries the environmental impact of five cars
“Average use of AI, so not like building deep fakes, but just like, you know drafting emails, that kind of thing that I, you know, I think everyone will be doing soon enough. That kind of average use has because of the computing demand involved, has the environ…”
Shalini Ramanathan Nov 29, 2023 ▶ 22:03 How to triple renewables by 2030
Assertion Supported
AI models can identify specific real-time appliance usage from smart meters
“You know, the reality is because of the high level resolution that we're doing on the sampling and using language models, we actually stopped from, like, guessing what's happening in the home to, like, actually knowing what's happening in the home. Right to th…”
Carlos Nouel Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 37:24 AI in the real world: Solar forecasting, EVs, and virtual power plants
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Del Chiaro: California's electricity load will at least double from electrification
“We anticipate our electricity load is going to at least double just from our electrification initiatives in the next couple of years, and that's not counting any kind of impact climate change has on electricity consumption.”
Bernadette Del Chiaro Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 11:02 Can California pull off its clean energy ambitions?
Assertion Contradicted
Senator Becker: Oil lobby is the top donor to California's legislature
“So the number one contributor to the state legislature is the Western States petroleum initiative, right? By far.”
Josh Becker Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 43:09 Can California pull off its clean energy ambitions?
Assertion Partly supported
Del Chiaro: Pending proposal restricts solar installations to licensed electricians
“There's a proposal right now pending before a licensing board called the California Contractor Licensing Board that would require solar and storage distributed to be only installed by electricians.”
Bernadette Del Chiaro Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 41:12 Can California pull off its clean energy ambitions?
Assertion Supported
Senator Becker: EV charger grid interconnection takes 70 weeks in his district
“So in my district, it takes about 70 weeks, which is hard to believe, like seven, no, seven 70 weeks to get things connected, to get new charging infrastructure, for example connected to the grid.”
Josh Becker Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 17:39 Can California pull off its clean energy ambitions?
Assertion Supported
Senator Becker: California bundles wildfire costs and social programs into electricity rates
“The problem is we stuff lots of things into rates, right? We stuff in all the wildfire costs into rates. The care program, which is a five billion dollar program, we put that into rates. So we put everything into rates.”
Josh Becker Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 46:40 Can California pull off its clean energy ambitions?
Assertion Supported
Senator Becker: California spent $1B extending dirty legacy power plants
“We spent a billion dollars on dirty legacy, you know, once through cooling, heavily polluting plants, just because we might need them for, like, 15 hours a year.”
Josh Becker Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 53:12 Can California pull off its clean energy ambitions?
Assertion Partly supported
Lacey: Over Half of US Manufacturing Incentives Go to Foreign Firms
“More than half of the incentives are actually being in on the manufacturing side are being taken and Advantage of by firms outside the US.”
Stephen Lacey Aug 15, 2023 ▶ 19:23 America’s historic climate law, one year on
Prediction Partly held up
US hydrogen rules will likely adopt three pillars with phase-ins
“The U.S. Guidance is likely to follow these three pillars that are outlined on additionality, temporal matching, and deliverability or geographic correlation with some sort of phase in, particularly on the requirement for additionality, so for new renewable en…”
Adi Basham Aug 3, 2023 ▶ 11:23 The high stakes debate over green hydrogen
Assertion Partly supported
Storrow: ISO New England study finds rooftop solar stabilized regional grid
“And the study finds that, no, actually, New England's grid is, at least in the next couple of years, is actually in really good shape. And a big reason that it's in really good shape is that New Englanders have put so much solar on their rooftops that it is ef…”
Ben Storrow Jul 26, 2023 ▶ 3:48 A surprise benefit of rooftop solar in New England
Assertion Supported
Lacey: 99% of US coal plants cost more than new renewables
“Back in February, we made an episode about how 99% of coal plants in America are more expensive to operate than new renewables.”
Stephen Lacey Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 2:30 What’s the next big trend in clean energy?
Assertion Supported
Naam: Space launch costs are dropping faster than solar power costs
“Space launch is getting cheaper faster than solar. Only, only two things in history have gotten cheap faster than solar to date, which are computing and gene sequencing or gene printing. But right now, we're in a phase where the cost of space launch is actuall…”
Ramez Naam Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 10:36 What’s the next big trend in clean energy?
Prediction Held up
Naam: Odds of limiting global warming to 1.5°C are minuscule
“But the bad news is we have missed 1.5 degrees C, and I don't know how to say this anymore clearly, because there are people that will tell you that we might hit it. The odds of that are minuscule.”
Ramez Naam Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 37:56 What’s the next big trend in clean energy?
Assertion Supported
Ex-DNI Dennis Blair argued battery manufacturing lacked national security importance
“From Admiral Dennis Blair, who had been the former U.S. Director of National Intelligence under Obama, there's this amazing quote in his op-ed where he says, like, there are many things that the U.S., many technologies the U.S. Should seek to protect lithium-i…”
Gabrielle Coppola Jun 14, 2023 ▶ 16:34 The fall of a battery maker still haunts America
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Tomlinson: New firming requirements will definitely slow Texas renewable investment
“This is going to be really expensive. It's also going to be highly political because we don't know yet what the PUC will assign to different facilities, but it will definitely slow down new investment in Texas, renewable energy.”
Chris Tomlinson Jun 1, 2023 ▶ 17:39 Why Texas Republicans are trying to crush wind and solar
Assertion Contradicted
Tomlinson: Texas is the only state where pipelines own in-pipe gas
“Texas is the only state in the country where pipelines get to own the gas inside the pipeline, and it allows pipeline generators to manipulate prices.”
Chris Tomlinson Jun 1, 2023 ▶ 18:34 Why Texas Republicans are trying to crush wind and solar
Assertion Partly supported
Texas SB 624 proposed letting distant residents block renewable energy projects
“The big, nasty bill that was You know, still alive as of Saturday until it was ripped out by negotiators was something called Senate Bill six 24. And it creates a list of places where if a wind farm is within 10 miles or a solar facility is within five miles o…”
Chris Tomlinson Jun 1, 2023 ▶ 13:20 Why Texas Republicans are trying to crush wind and solar
Assertion Partly supported
Tomlinson: Texas gives natural gas generators $9B annually in subsidies
“They are giving natural gas generators nine billion dollars a year in subsidies to help them compete with renewables.”
Chris Tomlinson Jun 1, 2023 ▶ 20:30 Why Texas Republicans are trying to crush wind and solar
Assertion Supported
Tomlinson: Viral anti-wind freeze image was a three-year-old Swedish photo
“They had a spokesman who tweeted out an image of a helicopter spraying a liquid onto a wind turbine, and the caption was, a fossil fuel powered helicopter sprays fossil fuels on a clean energy device to generate electricity. Now, of course, the image was not f…”
Chris Tomlinson Jun 1, 2023 ▶ 10:45 Why Texas Republicans are trying to crush wind and solar
Assertion Supported
Lacey: Republican districts get 5x more IRA clean energy funding than Democrats
“According to the Financial Times, Republican-held congressional districts are getting five times more funding for clean energy projects, including new manufacturing plants, than ones controlled by Democrats through this IRA legislation.”
Stephen Lacey May 22, 2023 ▶ 2:58 How will we power all those green factories?
Assertion Supported
Shah: Hydrogen and carbon capture achieved liftoff with $40B+ announcements
“It is very clear from the reports that hydrogen and carbon management have already seen liftoff, right? There's 40 plus billion dollars worth of announcements on real projects, and we outlined that in the report.”
Jigar Shah May 17, 2023 ▶ 28:43 Live: Is advanced nuclear ready for liftoff?
Assertion Supported
Lott: CARB mandates all new car sales be zero-emission by 2035
“Transportation is the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions in California, but on August 25th of this year, CARB, which stands for the California Air Resources Board, which is this organization that deals with regulating air quality in California, well, C…”
Dr. Melissa Lott May 10, 2023 ▶ 2:56 The Big Switch: California’s climate czar on banning gas cars
Prediction Held up
Lott: Up to 17 states tied to California rules may ban gas cars
“New York is also banning gas-powered car sales by twenty-thirty-five, and soon, as many as 17 other states, like Washington and Massachusetts, which currently have vehicle emissions standards tied to California's, may follow suit.”
Dr. Melissa Lott May 10, 2023 ▶ 4:19 The Big Switch: California’s climate czar on banning gas cars
Assertion Supported
Aggarwal: 50% to 70% of industrial heat can be electrified today
“About 50 to 70% of all the heat used in the industrial sector right now could be electrified with commercially available technologies.”
Sonia Aggarwal May 1, 2023 ▶ 35:29 America’s green industrial strategy 2.0
Assertion Supported
Thomas: There is zero documented contamination of town water supplies by solar panels
“There's never been A single documented instance of solar panels that have contaminated a town's water supply compared to fossil fuels where that's actually a very common experience or has happened a number of times.”
Michael Thomas Apr 5, 2023 ▶ 3:48 What’s driving a surge in renewables opposition?
Assertion Supported
Susan Ralston's firm received $300,000 from the Paul Singer Foundation
“At the time she was setting up Citizens for Responsible Solar, Ralston's firm pulled in 300,000 dollars from the Paul Singer Foundation,”
Stephen Lacey Apr 5, 2023 ▶ 10:42 What’s driving a surge in renewables opposition?
Assertion Supported
Thomas: Local opponents have blocked clean energy in 49 US states
“Clean energy projects have been blocked by local opponents in 49 out of 50 states.”
Michael Thomas Apr 5, 2023 ▶ 16:28 What’s driving a surge in renewables opposition?
Assertion Supported
Thomas: Over 30 states have local bans or restrictions on clean energy
“Local governments in more than 30 states have passed local ordinances that either severely restrict clean energy development or outright ban it, and more than a hundred local governments have passed severe restrictions Setbacks that make it almost impossible t…”
Michael Thomas Apr 5, 2023 ▶ 16:36 What’s driving a surge in renewables opposition?
Assertion Supported
Matrix-Backed News Sites Rewrote Alabama Power PR Without Disclosure
“A lot of them were actually pulling direct stories from Alabama Power has its own PR website, and they were basically pulling directly from their PR press releases and rewriting them into stories without saying that they were.”
Miranda Green Apr 5, 2023 ▶ 23:01 What’s driving a surge in renewables opposition?
Assertion Supported
Alabama Power had not held a rate hearing in 30 years
“Alabama Power had not had to have a rate hearing in 30 years, three decades, and Terry Dunn said, that's something I want to look into.”
Miranda Green Apr 5, 2023 ▶ 24:37 What’s driving a surge in renewables opposition?
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