The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 82 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 82 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hamilton: IRA will reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40% below 2005 levels by 2030
“So it will, based on all the analysis, drop greenhouse gas 40% below 2005 levels by 2030.”
Paruri: Tandem PV expects to reach 35% to 36% solar efficiency in medium term
“Our team believes that we'll be at 35, 36% efficiency in the medium term and there's so much more room to grow.”
Paruri: US silicon solar panels will max out at 25% efficiency
“So your average silicon panel here in the U.S. Is 23% efficient. It'll probably get to 25% in the next couple years, and that's it. Like, that's the max that a silicon solar panel will go.”
Supercool Earth's biological seeding targets warmer clouds than silver iodide
“So our biological can target warmer clouds, which are where the ag fields are, so that we can access ag versus any silver iodide-based cloud seeding.”
Captura targets 2028 for its first operational commercial plant
“So, we're targeting twenty-twenty-eight to be in operation with our first commercial plant.”
Needham: Italy, Germany, Japan, and Canada will harmonize fusion regulations
“Italy, Germany, Japan, Canada are all on track to do this.”
Jewett: Fervo will deliver 100MW by 2026 and 400MW by 2028
“The first hundred megawatts will be delivered by twenty-twenty-six, and the remaining 400 megawatts will be delivered by twenty-twenty-eight.”
Dan Shugar predicts energy storage duration will hit six hours soon
“We've seen energy storage, you know, go from one hours to two hours to four hours. You know, are we going to be six hours in a few years? Probably.”
Cotton: 10 Million Tons of Battery Scrap and Dead Cells Available by 2030
“And you know, from now until the end of the decade we think there's an estimated ten million tons or so of combined scrap material and end of life batteries that are really going to be ready to be recycled.”
Ramanathan: Global warming is very likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold
“We're not on track to keep average temperature 1.5 degrees Celsius below pre-industrial levels. That's the threshold that we've been talking about for a long time, and we're very likely to exceed it perhaps, you know, perhaps by a lot.”
BNEF: Mass commercialization of solid-state batteries expected post-2030
“Our view is in terms of mass commercialization, that's probably, like, around, like, post- twenty-thirty, with a lot of investment actually going into that now.”
Sekine: Gigawatt-hour scale battery projects will likely become standard by 2030
“I think the fully formed ones are probably around gigawatt hour scale projects. We see a couple of examples of those today, but I think expecting them to be the norm of how company, like a lot of large scale projects might go forward. I imagine that's going to…”
Floating offshore wind will scale commercially and achieve further cost reductions
“Projects are becoming bigger, and we will see floating wind, floating offshore wind becoming commercially much more scaled, much larger than we see in the moment. And that will we see further cost reduction, I'm sure because of the scale and larger projects, l…”
Risner: South32 Hermosa Project could employ over 80% local residents long-term
“We've communicated to the local community that we believe the long-term workforce at Hermosa could be greater, 80% or greater people that live in Santa Cruz County today.”
Spector: Analysts Anticipate 10x US Battery Cell Capacity Growth by 2027
“Some of the analysts I talked to anticipated 10 X growth in, in cell capacity by twenty-twenty-seven.”
Naam: Energy will be cheaper in the long run relative to income
“I think there's every reason to believe that in the long run, energy is going to be cheaper for people than it is today, certainly as a proportion of income.”
Cochran: Advanced reactors load follow much faster than historical nuclear
“Many of the technologies, some number of technologies, ours in particular, are able to load follow much more rapidly than historical nuclear.”
Hazlip: Long Island will connect 6 to 10 GW of offshore wind
“Probably six to 10 gigawatts of offshore wind connecting to Long Island over the next couple of decades.”
Hazlip: New York needs 20 GW of added transmission by 2050
“We see about 20 gigawatts of additional transmission capacity, you know, through to 20 50, both within and connecting New York to other regions.”
Lacey: Fully electric commercial kitchens remain a rarity in America
“What Miles saw is more common in other parts of the world, but still a rarity in America. A fully electric commercial kitchen.”
Boyle: Inflation Reduction Act incentives guarantee renewable cost advantages through 2033
“You know, I don't know where things are gonna go, but I think the fact that the Inflation Reduction Act incentives are durable for the next 10 years mean that the trend we've observed is, is not going anywhere fast.”
Harris: Miami must spend $6B on climate adaptation over 30 years
“The city of Miami specifically is going to have to spend around six billion dollars in the next 20 or 30 years installing stormwater pumps, raising roads, making the pipes underneath the road big enough to handle all the extra water, and fixing seawalls.”
Canary says burnt conifer forests can hold 80 to 300 dry logs per acre
“You might have 80 to 300 old logs per acre in a burnt out conifer forest, and after a couple years of undergrowth whether it's invasives or natives, like, they get super dried out, you get a lightning strike, boom, you got the next wildfire again”
Canary says removing fire-killed trees is post-fire reforestation's largest cost
“So that was we exited there, but the natural fit there is when we were doing these projects, the number one cost, because these projects were post-fire, was removing the top cost was removing the fire-killed trees.”
Supercool Earth snowmaking protein decomposes within minutes to days
“It's just this protein that when it gets sprayed onto the snow, it freezes and makes ice, and then it gets decomposed. It goes away very quickly within minutes or days in the environment.”
Supercool Earth snowmaking protein is room-temperature stable across seasons
“Whereas our protein, it's a dried protein formulation, and it can, it's stable at room temperature, and it can last season to season.”
Technip Energies completed FEL-1 engineering studies on Graphitic's technology at scale
“And so, Technib completed their FEL-I studies of our technology at both the minimum efficient scale, which is about six tons of hydrogen a day, and also the maximum efficient scale, which is 270 tons of hydrogen a day, which is a world-scale hydrogen plant.”
O'Donnell: Full Calgren installation will be about 600 MWh
“Step one, this was a pilot for the full-size installation will be about 600 megawatt hours”
Lacey: 27% of US Geologist Workforce Will Retire by 2029
“Roughly 27% of the existing workforce in the U.S. Will be retiring by twenty-twenty-nine, and there aren't enough people to take their places.”
Downing: US adding 20 to 90 GW of EV charger demand annually
“So between now and 2030, we're adding roughly 20 to 90 gigawatts of charger demand per year.”
Southern California Edison loaded 22,000 regulatory documents into Edison GPT
“They loaded over 22,000 regulatory documents into Edison GPT, like decades of filings, and now internal stakeholders can, you know, if they approach the regulatory team, they need information on a specific filing, a rate case, past information, they can use th…”
Hamilton: Renewables Set to Make Up 80% of New Power Capacity by 2030
“Renewables are set to contribute about 80% of new power capacity by 2030, with PV, solar PV alone, counting for more than half.”
Bowman: South Texas DAC Hub Will Remove 1M Metric Tons Annually
“South Texas, that's the South Texas DAC Hub, being, ah, led by 1.5, a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum, and the tech provider for this particular project is Carbon Engineering. They will be removing a million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually and storin…”