The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 126 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 23 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mainstream adoption of fully enclosed VR headsets is unrealistic
“VR may have a specialized role, you know, for more immersive training environments or things like that. Yeah, but even then, I think folks really are going to want to be able to wear glasses and work together, right? I mean, you're going to want to be able to …”
Camera-only smart glasses will quickly get undercut on price
“The problem with camera glasses, if you're really successful, right, you really won't have been able to build a platform because they're not, they don't have an operating system, they don't understand the world, they don't run applications, and therefore you'r…”
Pichai: AI models will break security across all regular software
“These models are definitely, like, really gonna break pretty much all software out there. Maybe already we don't know if we sit here and speak.”
Glyman: Simple expense management software will probably evaporate
“I think that if you are completing the small amount of cognitive work, right, let's say you just are you know, expense app. You know, the thing, the spend has occurred. It needs, you know, to go get the, write it down somewhere and get someone's approval, and …”
Handmer: Desalinated water can be produced for $99 per acre-foot
“So I believe that it should be possible to produce water, desalinated water, for 99 bucks an acre foot, which would be transformational, right?”
Handmer predicts China will beat the United States to the Moon
“Relax the outer space treaty in 2017 with the outer space, so the Artemis Accords, so we can go and kind of make a land grab on the moon, and then it turns out China's going to get there first.”
Lütke: AI will solve all software technical debt
“I don't even think it's going to end up mattering because AI is going to solve all technical debt.”
Lütke: AI will not cause widespread technological unemployment
“I don't even believe in AI unemployment from, to begin with. It's not how things work. But if you were worried about it, F-One is kind of proving that we can just make up completely incredible pursuits, especially with AI and robotics, we can make it cheaper, …”
Andreessen: AI job displacement will be slowed dramatically by licensing and unions
“The employment shifts everybody's worried about are actually not going to happen at anywhere near the velocity people think because it's like, you know, a significant, significant percentage of jobs in the US literally are, you know, licensed or unionized or c…”
Vogt: Moving into a home without a robot will seem strange soon
“I think it will be strange to move into a home or apartment in five years that doesn't have a home robot, or you won't want to without one.”
Vogt: Next $100B company founded in 2025-2026 will have under 100 people
“I think the next hundred billion dollar company that's created, you know, in 25, 26 will be under a hundred people.”
Upcoming Spectacles will match Apple Vision Pro capabilities in glasses form
“And I think the sweet spot for specs coming later this year is the wearability of, you know, normal glasses, but the capability of you know, true spatial computer, like something like a Vision Pro.”
Future social networking will mean hanging out in person using AR glasses
“This social network of the future is actually hanging out together in person and using specs together. So that's what excites me about the future of digital communication. I think, you know, messaging is fine, but it's hard to compete with actually being toget…”
Companies will shift resources from engineering to distribution to accelerate growth
“People are going to reallocate more resources away from things like software engineering, for example, to distribution in order to grow faster.”
Staniszewski: ElevenLabs hopes to pass voice Turing test within a year
“Our goal is to like pass the voice Turing test in all those cases, or the Turing test for all conversational agents outside of voice two. And I hope we will be there in the next year or so.”
Collison: High-Agency People Will Win From AI Advances, Low-Agency Will Lose
“My biggest takeaway from all this Has been that around agency where I feel like high agency people are the winners of the advances in AI and within organizations, low agency people will lose out.”
Pichai: Leading memory makers cannot rapidly expand short-term capacity
“There is no way that the leading memory companies are going to dramatically improve their capacity. So you have those constraints in the short term, but they get more relaxed as you go out.”
Pichai: 40 million Americans will soon have Wing drone delivery access
“In some reasonable time period, like, forty million Americans will have access to a Bing delivery service, right? And I'm not talking years out or something like that.”
Dolgov: Waymo driver tech will eventually reach every US USPS address
“Eventually it will. Absolutely. There's no doubt in my mind. I think it's just a matter of when.”
Lopes Lara: Prediction markets will improve polling accuracy, not destroy it
“My take is that polls are just going to get a lot better, because what people are going to be is like, okay, I can make money if my polls are right, so I'm just going to commission this poll, and I'm going to do this, And now you can actually, like, compete a …”
Taylor: AI agents will become the primary digital interface for most businesses
“And so then you look at AI agents, and I believe most businesses, it will be their primary digital interface, and it's because it works over WhatsApp, and it works over the phone.”
Taylor: SaaS sector will likely lose value over the next ten years
“Will these companies be less valuable 10 years from now than now? I think the answer is probably yes. Will that be true for every individual company? I don't think that's true.”
Taylor: Most Silicon Valley companies will stop hand-writing code by mid-2026
“And then the other thing is I think most companies in Silicon Valley won't write code by hand.”
Langley: VC-backed public safety tech startups will fail or be consolidated
“I see a new VC backed company every day, and I'm like, there's just a, all these things are going out of business, so there's just going to be consolidation.”
Pope: Model parameter counts will grow much faster than context lengths
“Really tied into this context thing, I think the context size will stay ballpark the same way it is, maybe a few times larger. But the parameter count will go up. Like, parameter count should grow much, much faster than context length, actually, just because o…”
Collison: Stablecoin issuers will buy large amounts of US debt and strengthen dollar
“Stablecoin issuers will, in a similar way, be large buyers of U.S. Debt and create more dollar strength.”
Collison: Agents will likely drive most internet transactions soon
“In our view, agents will most likely soon be responsible for most internet transactions, and will likely need blockchains that support more than a million, or maybe even more than a billion, transactions a second.”
Ben Thompson: The tech industry faces a massive chip shortage around 2029
“I think we're looking at a massive short, shortness in chips in 20, 29 or so.”
Ben Thompson: Crypto will become increasingly important for digital authenticity
“And in that world, I think crypto as an identifier of Authenticity is going to be more and more important. Like at the end of the day, I want the original. I don't want a reproduction.”
Nadella: AI agents will create their own RL environments
“Right now, for the RL loop, they are simulating our production environment, but they will ultimately be more efficient in creating their own production environments to kind of RL themselves.”
Nadella: Next IDE will be born in autonomous PR triage
“One of the things that we are experimenting with this mission control in GitHub Copilot is that, right, which is, well, the idea is you go have five, six different branches in which you fire off all these autonomous agents, they all do their work, they come ba…”
Nadella: Future companies will have their own proprietary foundation models
“The future of a company is that company has its own foundation model that captures essentially the tacit knowledge that makes the transactional costs of how knowledge gets accrued and diffused inside the organization faster.”
Nadella: The future of AI agents is ensembles with intelligent routing
“That ultimately is where, you know, the future of agents would be, right? And so therefore you want the model. In fact, you want an ensemble. Of models that then, you know, you have agents intermediating that ensemble so that it meets your needs.”
Ricks: Machine-designed drugs haven't reached clinical trials yet, but are coming
“I don't know of one that's come through the machine driven discovery process, which is really machine plus human that's made it to the clinic yet, but they're coming.”
Ricks: Eli Lilly's chronic knee pain study is going to work
“We have a study reading out toward the end of this year in chronic knee pain. It's going to work.”
Ricks: Taltz plus Zepbound trial is certain to boost psoriasis efficacy
“So we're doing a study with our psoriasis drug, Taltz, and ZepBound. That will read out this fall. And I'm certain we'll show a boost in efficacy with the weight loss.”
Abrams: US dollar stablecoins will maintain outsized dominance forever
“I think you're going to see while like, you know, fiat US dollars are x percent of the global market, stablecoin US dollars are going to be, you know, way more forever.”
Trading will shrink to 5% of the stablecoin market, Abrams predicts
“That being said, I think that the trading use, use case was like a hundred percent of the market two years ago was 80% of the market today, and, you know, will be five percent of the market in, in some number of years.”
All corporate treasuries will ultimately move into stablecoins, Abrams predicts
“So I think that ultimately all like corporate treasuries will move into stablecoins.”
Crypto transactions will soon be a large part of Stripe's business
“Crypto enabled transactions are going to be a very large part of the economy and just stripes business in the relatively near future.”
Stablecoins will grow 100x from their current scale, predicts John Collison
“People still have no idea how big stable coins are going to be. And I think they discount us because it feels like it's a lot of hype right now, but we're going to look back when stable coins are a hundred times bigger and just think of this moment as so cute.”
Handmer predicts Hyperloop will never happen
“Is Hyperloop ever gonna happen?
[79] Casey Handmer: No.
[80] Casey Handmer: I think I can safely say that now.”
Long-range aviation, shipping, and chemicals will remain hydrocarbon-based for decades
“Fast aircraft, big aircraft, long, long range aircraft, hydrocarbons. Probably long range shipping would stay that way. Like LNG, it's just so cheap. It's gonna stay that way for a long time. Paints are gonna stay hydrocarbon based. Chemicals, pesticides, herb…”
AI data centers will inevitably scale on solar and batteries, not nuclear
“It seems pretty clear to me, I think two years ago, I've got a blog post on this saying that, like, we're going to have to go to solar and batteries for AI data centers at scale and back then everyone was still talking about, like, oh, we're going to build SMR…”
Handmer: Solar panel manufacturing costs will fall to four cents a watt
“They could probably see line of sight to, like, another two extra action in cost. So we go from eight cents a watt down to four cents a watt.”
China's electrification will end its dependence on Strait of Malacca oil
“Do you think by 2035 China is still going to be as dependent on oil through the Strait of Malacca? I don't. At the rate that they're deploying right now, they could cut off that supply if they needed to.”
Handmer: AI Wealth Unlikely to Relieve Aging Populations Globally
“So it is certainly the case that AI seems likely to produce enormous additional wealth. Whether that wealth will find its way to alleviating the tax burden on the working class in, you know, the 200 countries on earth that don't have their own AI industry, see…”