The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 235 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mainstream adoption of fully enclosed VR headsets is unrealistic
“VR may have a specialized role, you know, for more immersive training environments or things like that. Yeah, but even then, I think folks really are going to want to be able to wear glasses and work together, right? I mean, you're going to want to be able to …”
Camera-only smart glasses will quickly get undercut on price
“The problem with camera glasses, if you're really successful, right, you really won't have been able to build a platform because they're not, they don't have an operating system, they don't understand the world, they don't run applications, and therefore you'r…”
Pichai: AI models will break security across all regular software
“These models are definitely, like, really gonna break pretty much all software out there. Maybe already we don't know if we sit here and speak.”
Glyman: Simple expense management software will probably evaporate
“I think that if you are completing the small amount of cognitive work, right, let's say you just are you know, expense app. You know, the thing, the spend has occurred. It needs, you know, to go get the, write it down somewhere and get someone's approval, and …”
Nadella: Microsoft has zero AI utilization issues; capacity is sold out
“I don't have a utilization problem. I may have a PUE, like, I mean, I want higher utilization because it's mostly because it's memory bottleneck or what have you, but that is a different, I mean, like, there is not a thing that I have that's not sold out. In f…”
Sundheim: Chinese tech firms avoided beating earnings to dodge scrutiny
“For a while we were seeing Chinese internet companies, like, they didn't want to beat earnings. Because if you beat earnings, your stock goes up too much. You know, you might be flagging that, like, you're over-earning”
Lütke: AI will solve all software technical debt
“I don't even think it's going to end up mattering because AI is going to solve all technical debt.”
Lütke: AI will not cause widespread technological unemployment
“I don't even believe in AI unemployment from, to begin with. It's not how things work. But if you were worried about it, F-One is kind of proving that we can just make up completely incredible pursuits, especially with AI and robotics, we can make it cheaper, …”
Andreessen: AI job displacement will be slowed dramatically by licensing and unions
“The employment shifts everybody's worried about are actually not going to happen at anywhere near the velocity people think because it's like, you know, a significant, significant percentage of jobs in the US literally are, you know, licensed or unionized or c…”
Vogt: Moving into a home without a robot will seem strange soon
“I think it will be strange to move into a home or apartment in five years that doesn't have a home robot, or you won't want to without one.”
Upcoming Spectacles will match Apple Vision Pro capabilities in glasses form
“And I think the sweet spot for specs coming later this year is the wearability of, you know, normal glasses, but the capability of you know, true spatial computer, like something like a Vision Pro.”
Future social networking will mean hanging out in person using AR glasses
“This social network of the future is actually hanging out together in person and using specs together. So that's what excites me about the future of digital communication. I think, you know, messaging is fine, but it's hard to compete with actually being toget…”
Companies will shift resources from engineering to distribution to accelerate growth
“People are going to reallocate more resources away from things like software engineering, for example, to distribution in order to grow faster.”
Xu: Google's food ordering failed because it couldn't manage post-checkout logistics
“I remember services, you know, Google food ordering launched in, I forget, 2015 or 16, and they allowed you to order delivery, for example from various Google services, you know, Google Maps, Google Search, et cetera, and while on the one hand it was low frict…”
Staniszewski: ElevenLabs hopes to pass voice Turing test within a year
“Our goal is to like pass the voice Turing test in all those cases, or the Turing test for all conversational agents outside of voice two. And I hope we will be there in the next year or so.”
Staniszewski: Speech-to-speech models are 'definitely dumber' due to size limits
“They are definitely dumber. You need smaller model, you cannot... If you are going speech to speech, usually you will use smaller models, so it's still quick.”
Collison: High-Agency People Will Win From AI Advances, Low-Agency Will Lose
“My biggest takeaway from all this Has been that around agency where I feel like high agency people are the winners of the advances in AI and within organizations, low agency people will lose out.”
Pichai: Leading memory makers cannot rapidly expand short-term capacity
“There is no way that the leading memory companies are going to dramatically improve their capacity. So you have those constraints in the short term, but they get more relaxed as you go out.”
Dolgov: Waymo Gen-6 Hardware Costs a Fraction of Gen-5
“It is very different from the fifth generation. It is simpler. It is more capable. It is much lower cost. It's thinking a fraction of the cost is, you know, comparable to what you would get like a fancy ADA system.”
Dolgov: Waymo driver tech will eventually reach every US USPS address
“Eventually it will. Absolutely. There's no doubt in my mind. I think it's just a matter of when.”
Lopes Lara: Over 95% of Kalshi maker orders come from peer-to-peer traders
“Over 95 are just like. Peer-to-peer, like, or funds that have like two people that just got stuck.”
Mansour: Kalshi's top inflation forecaster was an amateur from Kansas
“The best inflation forecaster on CalSphere over the last few years is not, none of the institutions or the, you know, the big name hedge funds, it's this guy who lives in Kansas, never traded financial markets before, just likes to read the news, and just know…”
Lopes Lara: Prediction markets will improve polling accuracy, not destroy it
“My take is that polls are just going to get a lot better, because what people are going to be is like, okay, I can make money if my polls are right, so I'm just going to commission this poll, and I'm going to do this, And now you can actually, like, compete a …”
Taylor: AI agents will become the primary digital interface for most businesses
“And so then you look at AI agents, and I believe most businesses, it will be their primary digital interface, and it's because it works over WhatsApp, and it works over the phone.”
Collison: High-agency, non-expert engineers are ascendant at Stripe thanks to AI
“High work ethic people. Who maybe weren't the best engineers you know, previously or now, those people are massively ascendant, as far as I can tell, because they suddenly got the exoskeleton, you know, and like, they always have the ideas as to what we should…”
Taylor: Most Silicon Valley companies will stop hand-writing code by mid-2026
“And then the other thing is I think most companies in Silicon Valley won't write code by hand.”
Langley: Flock Safety cleared over one million US crimes last year
“So we're, last year, we helped clear just north of a million crimes in America.”
Langley: Body cameras exonerate officers in majority of foul play cases
“In the majority of cases that I see, where foul play is called, it is almost always the inverse. Where a law enforcement officer was just trying to do their job, and on the other side, there was other mental health issue, there was something gone wrong, and it…”
Langley: VC-backed public safety tech startups will fail or be consolidated
“I see a new VC backed company every day, and I'm like, there's just a, all these things are going out of business, so there's just going to be consolidation.”
Langley: Majority of 911 calls do not require a human officer response
“Majority of the calls actually never need a human to show up.”
Collison: Stablecoin issuers will buy large amounts of US debt and strengthen dollar
“Stablecoin issuers will, in a similar way, be large buyers of U.S. Debt and create more dollar strength.”
Collison: Agents will likely drive most internet transactions soon
“In our view, agents will most likely soon be responsible for most internet transactions, and will likely need blockchains that support more than a million, or maybe even more than a billion, transactions a second.”
Glyman: Majority of Ramp's 55,000+ Customers Have Adopted AI
“And we looked at our data and you know, we support over 55,000 businesses. We lean a little bit towards tech, but not heavily. It kind of resembles the distribution of businesses you would see in the States. And well the majority of businesses have used Used A…”
Glyman: All modern fintech heads of risk came from Capital One
“Our head of risk Sri Srinivasan, he's amazing came from capital, we're the same boss 10 years apart, actually in, in some sense, and all the heads of risk for all modern fintechs that are, came from Capital One.”
Ben Thompson: Crypto will become increasingly important for digital authenticity
“And in that world, I think crypto as an identifier of Authenticity is going to be more and more important. Like at the end of the day, I want the original. I don't want a reproduction.”
Nadella: AI agents will create their own RL environments
“Right now, for the RL loop, they are simulating our production environment, but they will ultimately be more efficient in creating their own production environments to kind of RL themselves.”
Nadella: Next IDE will be born in autonomous PR triage
“One of the things that we are experimenting with this mission control in GitHub Copilot is that, right, which is, well, the idea is you go have five, six different branches in which you fire off all these autonomous agents, they all do their work, they come ba…”
Nadella: Future companies will have their own proprietary foundation models
“The future of a company is that company has its own foundation model that captures essentially the tacit knowledge that makes the transactional costs of how knowledge gets accrued and diffused inside the organization faster.”
Nadella: The future of AI agents is ensembles with intelligent routing
“That ultimately is where, you know, the future of agents would be, right? And so therefore you want the model. In fact, you want an ensemble. Of models that then, you know, you have agents intermediating that ensemble so that it meets your needs.”
Ricks: Early-stage biotechs pitch 80% to 100% of revenue from the US
“If you fund, if you went out and said, hey, I want to back some biotechs, and they sent you their business plan, 80 to a hundred percent of the revenue in return they'll pitch you on is the US. Meaning there is no return outside the US if you start at the poin…”
Abrams: US dollar stablecoins will maintain outsized dominance forever
“I think you're going to see while like, you know, fiat US dollars are x percent of the global market, stablecoin US dollars are going to be, you know, way more forever.”
Trading will shrink to 5% of the stablecoin market, Abrams predicts
“That being said, I think that the trading use, use case was like a hundred percent of the market two years ago was 80% of the market today, and, you know, will be five percent of the market in, in some number of years.”
All corporate treasuries will ultimately move into stablecoins, Abrams predicts
“So I think that ultimately all like corporate treasuries will move into stablecoins.”
Crypto transactions will soon be a large part of Stripe's business
“Crypto enabled transactions are going to be a very large part of the economy and just stripes business in the relatively near future.”
Stablecoins will grow 100x from their current scale, predicts John Collison
“People still have no idea how big stable coins are going to be. And I think they discount us because it feels like it's a lot of hype right now, but we're going to look back when stable coins are a hundred times bigger and just think of this moment as so cute.”
Long-range aviation, shipping, and chemicals will remain hydrocarbon-based for decades
“Fast aircraft, big aircraft, long, long range aircraft, hydrocarbons. Probably long range shipping would stay that way. Like LNG, it's just so cheap. It's gonna stay that way for a long time. Paints are gonna stay hydrocarbon based. Chemicals, pesticides, herb…”