The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 209 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Independent studies show Snapchat boosts well-being, unlike TikTok or Instagram
“And I think what's so fascinating, I think now there's been maybe three or more of them, one out of Australia, I think one out of the Netherlands or something, one in the U.S., that show that Snapchat actually has a positive impact on people's well-being and r…”
Ricks: Insurers initially refused to cover Eli Lilly's discounted generic insulin
“In the first year, no formularies covered this. So it was really only for that cash payer. No insurance company picked it up, even though it was dramatically cheaper. Now it's about half of the volume, but still half not because that model of this margin sprea…”
Scaringe: Tesla Cybertruck cannot pass European pedestrian protection safety standards
“Like, for example, a Cybertruck would not, could not work in Europe.”
Andreessen: US dockworker agreements paid one non-working person per active worker
“One of the things that we, that was discovered during that process that I didn't know is that in prior union agreements with the dock workers, they already had a one-to-one ratio of people sitting at home doing nothing to every productive dock worker as a cons…”
Xu: DoorDash's Dot robot uniquely navigates roads, sidewalks, and bike lanes
“And the sidewalk and the bike lane. And so it's the only vehicle in the world that does that.”
Langley: Flock Safety's drone camera can read license plates nearly a mile away
“Like, we can zoom, we can read a license plate almost a mile away. Like, crazy specs. Great thermal.”
Langley: Cobb County solves 100% of violent crimes
“Cobb County would be one which is like the second largest county... If you commit violence in Cobb County, you will get arrested.”
Pope: Google completely stopped publishing its AI research around 2022
“In twenty-twenty-two was about the time when just Google completely stopped publishing its research. And so all the good papers are from before that as a result.”
Collison: GDPR reduced profits for small European tech firms by up to 12%
“GDPR alone is estimated to have reduced profits for small tech firms in Europe by up to 12%.”
Depledge: Top-Quartile UK VCs Match US Returns at 23%
“VC firms, top quartile VC firms in the UK return 23%, right? It's exactly the same as the US.”
DeWahl: 100% 24/7 solar and battery storage costs rival nuclear
“Actually to get true hundred percent, 24 seven coverage, the battery or the excess build out is massive. It is really expensive. It's on, it's like basically on par with nuclear costs.”
Ricks: Cardiovascular trial rules added five years to diabetes drug development
“The Evandia one, we know well, we work in diabetes, actually caused a policy change, and the policy change was you must rule out cardiovascular risk prior to market entry, and as you may know some conditions like diabetes have a more continuous variable you're…”
Ricks: Lilly's net insulin price stayed near $30 despite $275 list price
“Our actual net on insulin really hasn't changed. It's like 30 or 40 dollars, but the list price got up to two 75.”
Ricks: ICER found tirzepatide and semaglutide cost-effective at current pricing
“They just analyzed our medicines, trisepatide and semaglutide, and they said, actually, they're both cost effective at current pricing. In fact, Zepbound or Trisepatide was, the threshold they have is to save a 100,000 dollars per person per year in downstream…”
Ricks: Medicine accounts for only 10 cents of every US healthcare dollar
“In the US, the most expensive healthcare system in the world, we spend 10 cents on the dollar on medicine. The other 90 cents go through everything else that medicine's trying to prevent.”
SpaceX controls approximately 95% of the global space launch market
“In the space sector, at least, it's quite astounding the extent to which SpaceX is dominant. Right. This is not the case that, like, Apple has, what, 2030, 40% market share in smartphones, and Pixel has 10%, and Huawei and so on has a, this is like, SpaceX has…”
Synthetic fuel production is 100 times more land-efficient than biological photosynthesis
“Plants are great. Even this plastic one here but their net throughput efficiency is about a hundred times lower than a synthetic process like the one we're using in terms of like, Area of land into reduced carbon fuel.”
US car seat mandates save 58 lives but avert 10,000 births annually
“Something like 58 children's lives are saved in the United States every year by statistically by car seats, and something like 10,000 births are averted by families who cannot afford to upgrade their cars”
Sundheim: GE Vernova trades at 2x Siemens Energy's enterprise value
“G Renova trades at two x the enterprise value of Siemens energy, just to give you a sense of like, and ultimately, there's no reason why the margin should be higher at G Renova. The revenue base is the same.”
Scaringe: Rivian is the best-selling SUV overall in California and Washington
“Interestingly, in California and the state of Washington, we have the best-selling SUV, electric or not electric, in California and the state of Washington.”
Scaringe: Every automaker except Rivian and Tesla relies on 50-150 computers
“And so, with the exception of two companies, Rivian and Tesla, every car on the road has, depending on the amount of content, anywhere from 50 to maybe a 150 little computers that run the car.”
Over one trillion selfies are captured on Snapchat annually
“Over a trillion selfies have been captured on Snapchat, right? And so I think when you know, in, in the, over the same period, and so when you.”
Xu: DoorDash is only platform saving drivers $1.40-$1.90 on gas
“And we're the only platform today to take care of Dashers when there is, you know, these increasing gas prices and making sure that, you know, we have their back and that we're actually trying to help them save a dollar 40 to a dollar 90 per gallon for Dashers…”
Xu: DoorDash's alert system warned NYPD of a Manhattan shooting first
“Within minutes of a Dasher seeing the shooter walk in to the building, you know, we have an alert system that doesn't just alert all Dasher's and consumers and merchants within that vicinity, but also all local law enforcement. And actually we were the first t…”
Xu: DoorDash cut COVID commissions 50%, costing over $100M
“Or in COVID, we were the only company to cut commissions by 50%. When we were not yet profitable as a company, that was an expense over a hundred million dollars.”
Xu: US food spend flipped from 80% groceries to 60% dining out
“It used to be that in the, you know, these are rough numbers, but in the 19 fifties when the government was measuring this, we would spend in this country, in America, maybe 75 to 80 cents on the dollar on groceries versus restaurants. In present day, you know…”
ElevenLabs expressive mode lets voice agents detect and match human emotions
“So today, finally, you can have both speed generation or entire voice agent experience With what we call expressive mode where the agent knows the emotions on the other side. So if the person is stressed, it can react and be reassuring and that's generating a …”
Pichai: BERT and MUM drove Google Search's largest quality leaps
“BERT and MUM, people underestimate how much, because we measure search quality so religiously, some of the biggest jumps in search quality in that period where search went ahead of everyone else was because of BERT and MUM. We built transformers and used it im…”
Pichai: Gemini Flash models reach 90% of Gemini Pro capability
“The flash models are at like 90% the capability of the pro models but much faster much more effective to serve and the vertical integration helps and so on.”
Pichai: Google scaled capital expenditures from $30 billion to $180 billion
“Look, I think, you know, we probably have scaled our capex from thirty billion to a hundred and approximately a hundred and eighty billion.”
Waymo runs 3,000 cars delivering 500k rides and 4M miles weekly
“We have about 3000 cars on the roads. We're doing about half a million rides per week. It, that translates to about, you know, over four million fully autonomous miles per week. We are operating in a fully autonomous mode in 11 cities in the US and 10 of those…”
Lopes Lara: Kalshi fined two insider traders 5x their total profits
“And we put out two cases of two weeks ago of two insiders that then because we're also regulated, we're able to charge them a lot of fines. We charge them over five times what they made and all those things they banned and all that.”
Lopes Lara: CFTC blocked Kalshi election markets for two years
“Not, well, the biggest they said no to was the elections. That's why we had to end up suing them. They said no for two years.”
Mansour: Kalshi logged $10.4B in trading volume in February
“So, so volume in February was 10.4 billion.”
Taylor: Ramp automates 90% of its customer support cases using Sierra
“Well, they're automating 90% of their cases.”
Langley: Oakland crime rose when San Francisco started adopting Flock Safety
“It's like when San Francisco started adopting Flock, Oakland crime went up. So then Oakland needed to adopt Flock.”
Langley: Lowe's retail shrink dropped an order of magnitude with Flock
“But like, you look at some of our partners like a Lowe's, you know, their shrink has gone down order of magnitude. It's not exactly, it's not really a problem anymore.”
Flock Drones Cross a 30-Square-Mile Radius in Under One Minute
“Our average drone can cover a 30 square mile radius and get there within under a minute.”
Langley: Stolen vehicles take 24 hours to reach the FBI database
“They will immediately put it in the Bay Area Flock hotlist immediately. It will take 24 hours to make it to the FBI hotlist. And that's a, you know, CSV file that gets sent around on FTP servers across the US.”
Langley: Federal law prevents police from shooting down criminal drones
“And then legally, even to today, law enforcement is not allowed to engage that drone. They can't take it down. It's FAA airspace. It's not law enforcement airspace.”
Pope: Chip tape-outs cost $30M and fail 50% of the time
“The ideal, which companies tend to hit about 50% of the time is that your first tape out costs like thirty million dollars your first... The ideal is that your first tape out is actually, is your production thing. So you do a tape out, you make maybe a thousan…”
Collison: Tech and data center capex drove nearly half of 2025 US GDP growth
“Economy-wide, demand for software, computers, and data center investment drove nearly half of all U.S. GDP growth in 2025, and will likely soon be a majority of all U.S. Growth.”
Collison: US small business loan approvals fell to 41% in 2025
“Only 41% of small business loan applications were approved in the US last year, down from 50% in 2015.”
Collison: 2025 stablecoin payment volume doubled to $400B, 60% B2B
“In 25, the price of Bitcoin dropped precipitously and is now 50% down from October, but stablecoin payments volume doubled to around 400,000,000,060 percent of which is estimated to represent B to B payments.”
Collison: Klarna is the first bank to launch a stablecoin on Tempo
“Klarna, whose CEO was once a self-proclaimed crypto skeptic, became the first bank to launch a stablecoin, Klarna USD, on the Tempo testnet, using Bridge's open issuance to facilitate faster and cheaper cross-border settlement.”
Collison: Stripe Capital recipients grew 27 percentage points faster over one year
“Businesses that received and accepted capital offers grew, on average, 27 percentage points faster over the following year than the otherwise equivalent businesses who didn't.”
Glyman: Ramp powers over 2% of US business card transactions
“I believe today, ramp powers more than two percent of all corporate and small business card transactions in the United States, which is amazing for a business that, you know, ah, the product you couldn't even sign up for it six years ago.”