why aren't all 29 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Andreessen: US dockworker agreements paid one non-working person per active worker
“One of the things that we, that was discovered during that process that I didn't know is that in prior union agreements with the dock workers, they already had a one-to-one ratio of people sitting at home doing nothing to every productive dock worker as a cons…”
Assertion Contradicted
Xu: DoorDash's Dot robot uniquely navigates roads, sidewalks, and bike lanes
“And the sidewalk and the bike lane. And so it's the only vehicle in the world that does that.”
Assertion Contradicted
Langley: Flock Safety's drone camera can read license plates nearly a mile away
“Like, we can zoom, we can read a license plate almost a mile away. Like, crazy specs. Great thermal.”
Assertion Contradicted
Pope: Google completely stopped publishing its AI research around 2022
“In twenty-twenty-two was about the time when just Google completely stopped publishing its research. And so all the good papers are from before that as a result.”
Assertion Contradicted
Depledge: Top-Quartile UK VCs Match US Returns at 23%
“VC firms, top quartile VC firms in the UK return 23%, right? It's exactly the same as the US.”
Assertion Contradicted
Scaringe: Rivian is the best-selling SUV overall in California and Washington
“Interestingly, in California and the state of Washington, we have the best-selling SUV, electric or not electric, in California and the state of Washington.”
Assertion Contradicted
Scaringe: Every automaker except Rivian and Tesla relies on 50-150 computers
“And so, with the exception of two companies, Rivian and Tesla, every car on the road has, depending on the amount of content, anywhere from 50 to maybe a 150 little computers that run the car.”
Assertion Contradicted
Xu: DoorDash is only platform saving drivers $1.40-$1.90 on gas
“And we're the only platform today to take care of Dashers when there is, you know, these increasing gas prices and making sure that, you know, we have their back and that we're actually trying to help them save a dollar 40 to a dollar 90 per gallon for Dashers…”
Assertion Contradicted
Xu: DoorDash's alert system warned NYPD of a Manhattan shooting first
“Within minutes of a Dasher seeing the shooter walk in to the building, you know, we have an alert system that doesn't just alert all Dasher's and consumers and merchants within that vicinity, but also all local law enforcement. And actually we were the first t…”
Assertion Contradicted
Langley: Oakland crime rose when San Francisco started adopting Flock Safety
“It's like when San Francisco started adopting Flock, Oakland crime went up. So then Oakland needed to adopt Flock.”
Assertion Contradicted
Langley: Lowe's retail shrink dropped an order of magnitude with Flock
“But like, you look at some of our partners like a Lowe's, you know, their shrink has gone down order of magnitude. It's not exactly, it's not really a problem anymore.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ricks: Drugs lose 97% of their pricing when patents expire
“Typically a generic event, you'll lose 97% of your pricing the day your patent expires.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ricks: Virtually no generic pharmaceuticals are manufactured in the US
“There are no generics manufactured in the U.S. Really.”
Assertion Contradicted
The average French pension now exceeds average working-age adult income
“I was insane stat in France recently that the average pension is now higher than, the pension is now higher than the average income for working age adults in France.”
Assertion Contradicted
Scaringe: Only Rivian and Tesla sell cars without dealership middle layers
“With the exception of us and Tesla, every manufacturer today sells through distributors, and distributors then on to dealers, or in a few cases, direct to dealers. But nonetheless, there's a middle layer.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lütke: Shop Pay delivers a 16% conversion rate increase for merchants
“It's a 16% conversion increase by it being robbed, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Andreessen: The 1999 Total Internet Market Was at Most 50 Million People
“The total market size in like, 1999 for internet anything was like fifty million people total max maybe.”
Assertion Contradicted
Collison: Mainstream AI chat interfaces still lack persistent memory in 2026
“Still in twenty-twenty-six, if you open a new Gemini chat, or if you open a new ChatGPG chat, it's basically a blank slate. There's no memory.”
Assertion Contradicted
Langley: Police helicopters increasingly disable ADS-B to evade criminal tracking
“We're seeing more and more police helicopters have to turn off ADS-B as well. Because like criminals have the same data that you have. And so most of the police officers actually fly without ADS, you know, which is like a whole challenge.”
Assertion Contradicted
Collison: GitHub pushes jumped 41% between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025
“Pushes to GitHub, which grew roughly 10 to 12% in prior years, jumped 41%. Between Q. Three, 24 and Q. Three, 25.”
Assertion Contradicted
Rampell: Legal SaaS Vlex scaled from $20M to $100M in one year
“So, I met this company, V-Lex it's a 25 year old company. This guy Alex, bought up every legal record in Spain, like probably going back to 1492, like buys the, you know, here's the Ferdinand and Isabella, like, you know, here's the document, like I'm gonna ta…”
Assertion Contradicted
DeWahl: No one is processing nuclear-grade graphite in the US
“The graphite that I brought here is actually from a Japanese company, right? No one's even processing that stuff in the U.S.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ricks: The US and China hold 70% of global diagnostic capacity
“The US and China have something like 70% of all diagnostic capacity in the world.”
Assertion Contradicted
Handmer: Bureau of Reclamation has not built a major dam in 50 years
“The Bureau of Reclamation hasn't built a major dam in 50 years, so they've pretty much forgotten how at this point, I think.”
Assertion Contradicted
Norway was the first country where Snapchat gained user traction
“Well, Norway was the first place that Snapchat got traction. I mean, we had no traction anywhere. Not the US. Not the US. We had no traction anywhere except Norway.”
Assertion Contradicted
Langley: Florida and Maryland barred police cloud data until 2022 and 2023
“The cloud was only recently made legal in Florida as recently as twenty-twenty-two. So if you were a law enforcement agency, you could not host your data in the cloud until 2022. Maryland was 2023.”
Assertion Contradicted
Langley: Motorola holds an estimated 80% global land mobile radio market share
“I think they have an 80% market share globally of landmass radio”
Assertion Contradicted
Rampell: DomainTools runs daily WHOIS lookups on every internet domain
“Domain tools runs a cron job every day on every single internet website. They do a who is lookup. Cool. So Whois look up every single day.”
Assertion Contradicted
Glyman: Average US Business Checking Account Yield Is 0.7%
“I think that the national average You know, on checking accounts is .7% in the US.”