The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 126 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 23 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Spending $20 billion on desalination could double the Colorado River flow
“If you spent twenty billion dollars on desalination, you could literally double the flow of the Colorado. So why? Five million acre feet.”
Sundheim: Gas turbines will face shortages for a very long time
“I think that gas turbines are going to be in shortage for a very long time.”
Sundheim: US electricity demand will grow 4% annually over 20 years
“Electricity demand in the United States grew at zero percent for the last 20 years. And so, if you think about the next 20 years, I think electricity demand will grow at four percent.”
Sundheim: AI market correction will hit when training returns asymptote
“At some point, they're going to say like, well, we're asymptoting out, like the returns on this new investment are actually not working. That's when I think you'll see a pretty big correction.”
Sundheim: SpaceX will capture more global telecom market than expected
“And I think that will continue in a way that probably surprises people, in that like, I think SpaceX will probably capture more of the global,
Telecommunications market than people expect.”
SpaceX can triple in value without relying on speculative new use cases
“Like, I look at it and say, like, I think the business can triple
Without having to make any big bets about people traveling 30 minutes across the world or, you know, data centers in space.”
Scaringe: Hands-Free and Eyes-Off Driving Will Be Expected Within Five Years
“Or in this, the next five years, we're going to see autonomy features where the idea of like hands-free or hands-free eyes off go from being something that a very small percentage of customers are looking for or using to something that's essentially expected.”
Scaringe: Automakers without software-defined architectures will lose market share
“That must come, and if it doesn't, sort of like if manufacturers don't make that change, they're just going to lose market share, and the ones that do have that technology are going to gain a lot of market share in the next 10 years.”
Scaringe: Rivian steady-state vehicle sales will achieve 20% to 25% gross margin
“Vehicle sales, let's say that comfortably sitting it when we get to the right steady state, the 20 to 25% gross margin.”
Scaringe: Auto Production Will Shift to China Without Trade Friction
“If There's zero trade friction between, let's say, a country and China. More production in the fullness of time will shift to China because of those advantages. The lower cost of labor, the lower cost of capital.”
Collison: AI platforms will become the new aggregation layer, disrupting legacy aggregators
“It feels like step one is, that's going to happen with agentic commerce is, I feel like existing aggregators, if just aggregation is their raison d'etre, then they're going to have a lot of, ah, questions that they need to answer, because ChatGPT and the AI ap…”
Collison: Stablecoin checkout is a few years from mass-market adoption
“I think there'll be something similar with stable coins where they'll be offered at the point of checkout way before people Become super familiar with them, but we're probably only a small number of years away from some mass market.”
Andreessen: Most AI computation will run on smaller, open-source models
“My guess is we, they're gonna live in a world in which most aggregate AI is gonna be executed probably on smaller, smaller form factors,
And probably most of that is going to be open source.”
Andreessen: Tokenizing real-world assets will work incredibly well beyond dollars
“The idea was a crypto token wrapping a real world asset. So that was one of the, part of the original thinking on all this stuff. It's worked incredibly well for dollars. I believe that will work incredibly well for many other kinds of assets.”
Osika: AI agent failure rates will drop tenfold within a year
“I think the, like, agents, they often get confused and trip over themselves, and we're in a year going to see that happening, like, by an order of magnitude less often.”
Wu: Language syntax will matter less than product sense in software engineering
“Yeah, I think what we find is, is, and I think this, you know, we'll see this trend generally in software engineering, which is knowing all the little, memorizing all the facts or knowing all the little details or being really good at Syntax of some language o…”
Wu: Developers will stop using code as primary interface in 2-4 years
“I think that there will come a point, and my guess on this point is probably in the neighborhood of, let's say, two, three, four years from now, where we stop using code as the main interface.”
Wu: The transition to AI will create far more software engineers
“Funnily enough, I mean, I think, if anything, we will have way more software engineers, not fewer.”
Collison: Everything will pass through a transformer model before consumption
“Everything will pass through a transformer model before it's consumed.”
Wu: Sudden AGI singularity won't happen in the next few years
“My honest opinion is, I think there is some, you know, rapid, singularity, superintelligence thing that people kind of talk about. I would guess It's very hard to say. You know, nothing's impossible, but I would guess that that's not something that happens in …”
Large screen use cases will move to AR smart glasses first
“What I actually would estimate is that a lot of the large screen use cases are the first to move, right? So if you think about what's so interesting about specs, you can have a huge TV, right, with you almost anywhere. A giant screen with you almost anywhere. …”
The paradigm of manually operating computers all day is ending
“Like, I do think the paradigm that we all have to operate our computers all day long is going away, and I think that's hugely positive.”
Pichai: Google Search will evolve into an AI agent manager
“A lot of what are just information seeking queries will be agent taking search, You will be completing tasks. You have many threads running.”
Pichai: AI Will Meaningfully Accelerate US GDP Growth
“So, but I think the US economy is so much larger than it was 10 years ago. So to grow that, even at a half a percentage point higher than, you know, that, that's a massive contribution. So I expect it to play out that way.”
Pichai: Quantum computing will have an advantage in simulating reality
“My instinct tells me there'll be, you know, simulating weather, simulating, you know, reality, all that, I think, quantum 11 advantage.”
Pichai: Consumer AI interfaces will run full coding models underneath
“Look, I think effectively the consumer interfaces are going to have Full coding models underneath, right? And the right harnesses and like the right scales and the ability to persist and run somewhere securely in the cloud, locally and in the cloud. So all tho…”
Pichai: 2027 will be a profound inflection point for agentic workflows
“I definitely expect in some of these areas, 27 to be Important inflection point for certain things. Even the people doing it, that is the workflow through which they would produce it. And, you know, maybe for a while, you would check it in the conventional way…”
Cacioppo: GRC teams will collapse into single-threaded owners managing AI
“What we're talking about now, and we haven't seen yet, but if I, like, had the future cast and guess, is we're going to see, actually, Those GRC teams collapse a bit more into these single threaded owners.”
Waymo Co-CEO: Gen-6 Custom Robotaxi Is Launching in 2026
“It's, you know, we're not, it's not open to the, you know, the public yet. But, you know, I took a ride in it the other day, fully autonomously, and that's coming this year.”
Dolgov: Waymo may serve low-density areas via privately owned vehicles
“And this is where, you know, a personally owned vehicle that is equipped with the Waymo driver is maybe, you know, how you will see it materialized.”
Lopes Lara: Prediction markets will complement news media rather than destroy it
“A lot of people are like prediction markets will destroy the news. I think it's way more complimentary. It's like when you're talking about an election, you're going to give your opinion, the market's not going to give you an opinion. You still need the commen…”
Langley: US crime rate is down and will continue falling
“It is down. I think it'll continue to go down.”
Langley: Flock Safety will generate hundreds of millions in operating cashflow this year
“Like we'll generate free cashflow, hundreds of millions of dollars of operating cashflow this year.”
Collison: 2025 AI agent startup launches on Stripe will eclipse 2024's 700+
“More than 700 AI agent startups launched on Stripe last year, a figure that we expect will be substantially eclipsed by the total in 2025.”
Glyman: Non-card products will comprise majority of Ramp business by year-end
“I think by the end of this year you know, the second, third, fourth, fifth lines of business will comprise you know, in aggregate the majority of Ramp's business.”
Rampell: Nobody is going to replace or get rid of Workday
“So, like, Workday, I think is, like, nobody's gonna get rid of Workday.”
Ben Thompson: Shared experiences and live events will appreciate under AI
“Things that are common experiences are going to be more and more valuable. Common content, common classroom time, live events, like shared experiences, because anything that's individualized is just going to be completely swallowed.”
Nadella: Future IDEs will act as heads-up displays to steer agent swarms
“So the IDE, I think, in fact, one of the most exciting things is new classes of highly refined IDEs that have even a sort of a telemetry loop with the intelligence layer, but also they kind of act more like heads up displays, right? I have thousands of agents …”
Nadella: AI front doors will remain highly competitive among major tech firms
“Because the good news here is there is going to be multiple. I mean, obviously, ChatGPT is the big one, but there's going to be, I mean, you know, Google's going to be there. We're going to be there. Meta will be there. Perplexity. There's going to be a lot of…”
Collison: AI agents will probably eliminate distinctions between customer service and SDR roles
“Maybe what we're describing is a bunch of swim lanes Have been established by random accidents of software and org charts and everything like that. You do customer service. When people come with a query as of a non-commercial nature, you are an SDR. You know, …”
Ricks: Current GLP-1 drug pricing will fall amid competition and pressure
“And the current pricing isn't going to stay. Let's be honest. There'll be more competition. The government wants to lower our prices.”
Consumers will access the risk-free rate via stablecoins within a year
“I think that pretty soon, like, in the next year, any consumer who wants access to the risk-free rate is going to have access to it.”
Abrams: There will not be separate company blockchains for Stripe or JPMorgan
“There's not a world where there's like a JP Morgan chain and a Stripe chain and a Bank of America chain and there's like a thousand, you know, unique company, company blockchains. That's not going to happen.”
Handmer: Natural gas prices will rise significantly as US exports expand
“Now, I think that as our export capacity to Europe increases and our fields continue to deplete and so on, we're going to see that price rise quite a bit, but probably not next year.”
Handmer: Every developed Western democracy will soon have collapsing birth rates
“The number of developed, you know, western liberal democracies where their birth rate is not, like, Either already catastrophically low or falling fast is very, very small and probably will be zero before long.”
Handmer: Western demographic hole cannot be halted for decades even with instant baby boom
“Even if Like, as a result of listening to this podcast, every single person in the West just, like, immediately started coming out babies. It still wouldn't really For many decades halt this hole we've dug up, dug for ourselves. There's basically no way out of…”
Scaringe: Rivian Gen 2 will see steep autonomy feature improvements over Gen 1
“So that's now in the car and it, the slope of the curve in terms of progress and additional features is going to be really steep. Your gen one won't have that. Gen two's will.”
Osika: Software development will transition to visual, conversational AI interfaces
“We're going to see a completely new type of experience and interface to build software products, and it's not going to be humans looking at the code, it's going to be something new, something more like visual, and driven by talking to an AI, and it's going to …”