why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Partly held up
BYD will likely reach 40 percent market share among Chinese EVs
“I would generally say that BYD itself is generally reaching, like, Tesla level dominance in the Chinese market now, because with the most recent releases, they're probably going to get to maybe 40%
Market share among NEVs in China, which is just, you know, li…”
TP Huang Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 14:32 Demystifying the Chinese EV market
Prediction Partly held up
Gramlich: Electricity interconnection queue backlogs will not get worse
“I also don't expect the cues to get even worse than they are. I think there are a lot of activities to improve the cue processing issue.”
Prediction Partly held up
Waters: New York, PJM, and MISO will see accelerating storage growth
“And, you know, right now, I would say, you know, New York, ah, PJM, MISO, those are all regions where we expect to see a lot more growth. Than we've seen historically.”
Prediction Partly held up
Von Ossen: California and Texas will drive energy storage pipelines to triple
“I think projections have them increasing something like three times over the next 18 months primarily driven by markets like California and Texas.”
Prediction Partly held up
Beard: Geothermal will scale via shallow sedimentary basins before deep rock
“That I think is how geothermal or geothermal anywhere will roll out in the next decade, is you've got teams that are in sedimentary basins right now, like In South Texas, right? They're trying geothermal anywhere projects in places where they can get to heat i…”
Prediction Partly held up
Mukhopadhyay: Commercial electric aircraft deliveries will probably happen around 2026
“These companies are saying about 20, 24 for entry into market. I am guessing it's probably going to be more like 20, 26 by the time they're actually able to deliver aircraft on a regular basis to customers.”