The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 70 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 6 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
The US-Japan critical minerals agreement was tailored to preserve Tesla's tax credits
“Essentially, my conspiracy theory, Is that essentially this was a bone that was thrown to Tesla. Because Tesla makes its battery cells in North America with Panasonic. It makes some of its materials in North America. The electrolyte is made here, the separator…”
Jaffe: Chinese state industrial policy created CATL, now the world's top producer
“The emergence of CATL, which was essentially a company that was really invented in the back rooms of the industrial governmental complex in, in China about 12 years ago that, and it essentially just, you know, it followed the plan perfectly and is now the larg…”
Jaffe: Northvolt doomed itself by attempting six gigafactories simultaneously
“What they ended up trying to do was build, essentially build six gigafactories simultaneously, which is just an impossible task to handle. And I think that the, you know, that, that the concept of build, build, perfect, and then repeat was not applied. And the…”
Jaffe: Northvolt could have worked if investors forced focus on one factory
“And if their goal and focus and their investors had pushed them very hard to get that one factory to work right, do anything you can to get that one factory to work right, and then we'll figure out everything else later. I, you know, I think it could have work…”
Jaffe: Northvolt's stranded factory will eventually produce batteries under new ownership
“But that factory, I believe strongly, is going to be making batteries. Somebody else is going to own it, and they are going to be making batteries.”
US domestic battery manufacturing will reach 200 GWh by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
Jaffe: Treasury Classifies Constituent Materials as Minerals Subject to 50% Rule
“So I think what essentially what the guidance said was constituent materials, which is going to be any of these precursor steps up to the battery component itself, essentially falls under strategic minerals. As in the strategic minerals qualification. Now they…”
Jaffe: US-Japan trade deal was a concession to qualify Tesla for tax credits
“Essentially this was a bone that was thrown to Tesla. Because Tesla makes its battery cells in North America with Panasonic. It makes some of its materials in North America. The electrolyte is made here, the separator, the cans, some other things are made in N…”
Lithium processed in China temporarily qualifies for EV tax credits
“If you are today shipping your spodumine to China to be made into lithium hydroxide then that's, if China does turn out to be a foreign entity of concern, that will disqualify that material for the tax credit. So right now, it is going to be qualified, but as …”
Jaffe: Lithium shortages will reduce non-China EV demand by 5% to 10%
“The EV demand outside of China, because China is going to be less affected by this because the Chinese investment in lithium has been has kept track with future demand requirements in twenty-twenty-five. But outside of China, we think that we have pulled back …”
Jaffe: Manganese-rich cathodes could become the most common EV chemistry by 2030
“Manganese is a inherently cheaper material and is going to end up, if they can make that middle bucket work really well, is going to be the, I think the most common
Chemistry of choice for cars by the end of the decade.”
Jaffe: Lithium metal batteries will hit 150 GWh by 2030, mostly non-automotive
“I think that lithium metal batteries are gonna result, are gonna be about a 150 gigawatt hour market by the end of the decade, but they're gonna be in other things outside of cars, mostly.
They'll just start to be appearing in cars at the end of the decade.”
Jaffe: Vehicle-to-grid integration is the future of EV battery deployment
“What I think is the future is vehicle to grid. And the, if you truly do have a million mile battery, the idea that you can use the Not just to drive it, but as a stationary storage device while it's in the car, becomes a very real prospect.”
Jaffe: Battery industry will nearly double every year for 5–6 years
“The industry is literally increasing by almost doubling every year. And we'll continue to do that for the next five or six years and doubling off of a huge base now.”
Jaffe: Window is closing for new battery startups to rival majors
“There are a handful of new battery companies like Northvolt in Europe and that are appearing, but this is really the last chance for that, for a new, a brand new startup battery company to be able to compete with the majors.”
Jaffe: Few non-Chinese companies provide end-to-end equipment across 18 battery stages
“There's essentially 18 stages that you're each with its own different types of equipment. And there's very few companies that make every one of those pieces of equipment. And especially there's very few Chinese, non-Chinese companies that, that have That, that…”
Treasury rules classify 25% Chinese-owned entities as FEOCs, barring tax credits
“And that, that number is now 25%, so it can't be a Chinese ownership having, Chinese company having an ownership of 25% or more, or else it becomes a foreign entity of concern, and therefore disqualifies you for the tax credit.”
Treasury's FEOC guidance forms a strict barrier against Chinese battery materials
“Based on my expectations, this is, it's significantly restrictive. My expectations was there were going to be a lot of loopholes and a lot of ways for this to snake around the FEOC label. But it's a pretty, it is a pretty solid bulletproof way of keeping the C…”
Freyr, Northvolt, and Volkswagen redirected European battery plant developments to the US
“We've actually seen a shift, in some cases, a shift of battery plants that were planned for Europe where they said, we're gonna stop developing this and instead turn to building a plant in the U.S., Fryer did that, Northvolt did that, and a couple others, and …”
Nickel represents the largest mineral value share in most EV batteries
“For most of these electric vehicle batteries of all of the minerals is going to be nickel. And then lithium and cobalt probably fall in second, but the single biggest number to shoot for is the nickel itself, and that's a problem because most nickel is coming …”
Lithium processed in China qualifies for EV tax credits pending FEOC enforcement
“If you are today shipping your spodumine to China to be made into lithium hydroxide then that's, if China does turn out to be a foreign entity of concern, that will disqualify that material for the tax credit. So right now, it is going to be qualified, but as …”
Jaffe: Freyr, Northvolt, and Volkswagen shifted European plant plans to US
“We've actually seen a shift, in some cases, a shift of battery plants that were planned for Europe where they said, we're gonna stop developing this and instead turn to building a plant in the U.S., Fryer did that, Northvolt did that, and a couple others have,…”
US battery manufacturing will reach roughly 200 gigawatt-hours by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
Jaffe: Treasury left Foreign Entity of Concern undefined in EV credit guidance
“They did not give guidance on how they define foreign entity of concern for the purposes of the EV tax credit. And, you know, they didn't give any guidance. They were asked very specifically, is, is a country a foreign entity of concern? Do you have to name th…”
Jaffe: US battery cells gain 30% to 40% advantage over Chinese cells
“So you're essentially talking about somewhere around 30 to 40% price advantage, or advantage that this, a U.S.-made cell gets over a Chinese cell.”
Jaffe: US Energy Storage Capacity Will Double in 2023 Alone
“Essentially what we're expecting to see next year now is a doubling of the entire installed capacity
Of US energy storage in twenty-twenty-three alone. In other words, everything that's been built and installed in the US is about to double in what's installed …”
Jaffe: Over 600 GWh of battery manufacturing will onshore in North America
“We expect over 600 gigawatt hours worth of battery manufacturing to onshore in North America Over the next decade.”
Jaffe: North America will import many stationary storage batteries from China
“We're gonna be importing a lot of batteries from China for stationary storage applications.”
Jaffe: IRA tax credit rules definitely hurt short-term EV adoption
“Short-term, it definitely hurts EV adoption. It's a net negative because nobody qualifies for it.”
Jaffe: Treating battery cells as outsourced commodities was a critical OEM mistake
“And that's what we've learned in the last 10 years of the development of the electric vehicle, is that the car is the battery. And it's not just the battery pack. The car is the battery cell. The car is the battery chemistry. And for the car company to just sl…”
Jaffe: The real prize of solid-state batteries is enabling lithium metal anodes
“The real prize with solid state is getting to a lithium metal batteries... You get the most energy dense possible anode you could possibly get With a lithium metal anode.”
Jaffe: Fast charging is a nice-to-have rather than essential for EV owners
“Fast charging is something that a new is going to appeal to a new buyer that's never owned an electric vehicle before, but once they get used to it, they realize this is a nice to have, not a requirement.”
Jaffe: Second-life EV batteries struggle economically against sub-$100/kWh new cells
“A million mile car brings up the possibility of repurposing that battery pack once the car no longer functions, repurposing that battery pack for stationary storage. But I'm very skeptical about that proposition. You, at that point, you've got an old device th…”
Jaffe: Seven to eight companies produce 85% of global batteries
“What's really happening is we're moving more and more towards consolidation, and we're now, we now have a handful of seven or eight large companies that produce 85% of the batteries that are being made. And that trend is only increasing, not decreasing.”
Jaffe: Northvolt secured around $14 billion in capital, debt, and subsidies
“It's essentially about fourteen billion dollars in total, including money, actual capital raised essentially people saying we will contribute this amount in the future to future raises and tax credits, which were a large part of that fourteen billion.”
Jaffe: Tesla Gigafactory discarded nearly half of its first-year battery cells
“The most famous, of course, is the first Tesla Gigafactory, which apparently they had close to half of their cells that they produced in the first year of that factory's production had to be discarded because they weren't getting the quality right.”
Jaffe: Embedded equipment suppliers dictate battery factory success for years
“The equipment suppliers are embedded in that factory for between one and two years, and the factory owner is married to those people. They become the most critical people in the success of the company. And if you're not paying a hundred, just like in marriage,…”
A de minimis loophole allows low-value Chinese battery materials until 2026
“There is a significant loophole, which is a de minimis ruling, which essentially says if there's a small amount of material come, that, that does get its way into, from China then that will, and specifically of materials that don't have high value, and that's …”
New non-Chinese graphite facilities could produce significant volume by 2026
“I mean, there are graphite facilities being built today that should happen very relatively quickly and have a chance to be producing significant amounts of graphite in twenty-twenty-six.”
Australia, South Korea, and Chile are the biggest international IRA beneficiaries
“I think that the biggest winners, though, of the other countries that are involved, Australia and Korea and Chile are the, are by far the biggest winners. They all have free trade agreements with the U.S. And are going to come out looking very good from this.”
Treasury classifies battery constituent precursor materials under strategic minerals rules
“What essentially what the guidance said was constituent materials, which is going to be any of these precursor steps up to the battery component itself, essentially falls under strategic minerals. As in the strategic minerals qualification. Now they added this…”
Jaffe predicts another big battery investment jump in next six months
“And I still think there, there's going to be another big jump in activity over the next six months with this guidance.”
Jaffe: Australia, Korea, and Chile are biggest international IRA winners
“I think that the biggest winners, though, of the other countries that are involved, Australia and Korea and Chile are the, are by far the biggest winners. They all have free trade agreements with the U.S. And are going to come out looking very good from this.”
Jaffe: Australian Spodumene Lithium Is Processed Outside Free Trade Partner Nations
“In the case of Australia, they dig up the rock called spodumene, and then they ship it to China to be processed into lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate, and that processing part of the supply chain is actually done outside of a free trade partner country.”
Jaffe: Most EVs Sold Through Early 2025 Will Remain Luxury Vehicles
“Over the next 12 to 24 months, we're still going to be living in a world where most electric vehicles sold are luxury or near luxury vehicles.”
Jaffe: Battery pack manufacturing will naturally co-locate with module production
“Once, if you've made the module here, you're going to make the pack here. You're not going to ship it to another continent to make the pack, and then ship it back here to put in the car.”